Week 3 Eliminator best bets

Projecting the safest selections for Eliminator pools in Week 3 and beyond

Updated: September 18, 2013, 3:10 PM ET
By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner | numberFire

Richard ShermanOtto Greule Jr/Getty ImagesRichard Sherman is a big reason Seattle is a popular Eliminator pick this week.

Two weeks into the 2013 NFL season and out of the eight remaining undefeated teams, two of them are the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs. The defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens barely took down the Cleveland Browns, and Tom Brady eked out a win over the lowly New York Jets on a soggy Thursday night. The Patriots, who typically occupy a top-three spot offensively, currently sit as the league's No. 29-ranked offense.

The two biggest matchups of Week 2, however, were between Peyton Manning and little bother Eli Manning in the Manning Bowl, and between the NFC West division rival San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Big bro crushed little bro as Denver re-enforced its NFL superiority, while Seattle dominated Sunday night, making Colin Kaepernick look human in a 29-3 rout. The Broncos, who led all teams after Week 1 in terms of passing efficiency, added another 18 points above what a league-average team would score through the air. Denver adds a point to its offense above expectation for every two passing plays. On the other hand, as Richard Sherman so kindly put it, you would be an "ignorant idiot" not to notice Seattle's stellar pass defense -- they have surrendered just 10 points so far in two games combined.

Each week, Insider will use numberFire's predictive modeling to help you survive and advance in your Eliminator pool. To do this, we look both at our projections and where the masses are likely leaning with their weekly picks in order to maximize your chances at winning your pool. For a more detailed look at our process, you can refer back to last week's look.

To help you visualize your path forward, below you'll find our Eliminator threat matrix that shows you how each team projects each week based on our model. It will be updated each week as results come in over the course of the season. The color-coded cells showcase three key bits of info:

Green: Our win-maximizing pick of the week.

Red: This is the consensus pick by you, the players in ESPN's Eliminator Challenge game.

Brown: The max method. This finds the best matchup of the year and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season.