- Mike Clay, Fantasy Football
In Part 1 of our introduction to opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD), I focused on the running back position. We quantifiably identified the flaws with red zone data and discovered why OTD is a significantly better resource for fantasy football gamers.
Part 2 of our study will examine receivers using the same technique.
What's unique about the application of OTD to pass-catchers is the fact that we don't actually have to use the line of scrimmage. Instead, I base OTD on where the receiver is standing on the field when targeted. Consider that, of the 83,631 targets we've charted during the past five years, 5,458 (6.5 percent) have been delivered into the end zone.
If you read Part 1, this chart will look familiar. It's basically the same one we examined during our rushing OTD study, but this time we're focusing on targets instead of carries.
We see a relatively linear drop-off in scoring rate as targets move farther away from the end zone. Take note, however, of the tiny difference between scoring rates on balls thrown into the end zone (36.9 percent) and throws delivered one yard away (36.0 percent). Keep that in mind next time you trash your quarterback for throwing one yard short of the end zone.
The chart below shows the top 40 players in receiving OTD during the 2012 regular season.
Pro Football Focus examines the best WRs in terms of scoring opportunities in 2012, using the metric oTD.