- KC Joyner, NFL Insider
Fantasy football owners know there is no such thing as a perfect world, especially on draft day. Overlapping bye weeks, missed handcuffs, players with injury risk -- the list of potential draft-day roster flaws is practically limitless.
With perfection out of the question, the goal instead is to build an ideal team that has the highest percentage chance of success.
This is especially true with first-round picks. Any player in the top 10 selections of a fantasy draft is, barring injury, bound to give a team quality value. So how does one go about playing the percentages among that caliber of prospects?
Taking a metrics approach is one good way to do this. Let's take a look at what they say would be the ideal way to rank the first-round picks in a 10-team ESPN standard scoring draft.
Pick No. 1: Adrian Peterson
Strong suits: Good Blocking Yards Per Attempt (GBYPA), rush attempt volume
Potential weakness: Low Good Blocking Rate (GBR)
According to my draft guide, Peterson racked up an insanely high 11.1-yard total in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric. This measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking, roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to disrupt a rushing attempt. No qualifying back has ever posted a higher mark in that category in the eight years it has been tracked. Peterson also has a huge workload capacity, as his 399 rushes/targets last year ranked second-highest among running backs. Crazy as it sounds, there is also upside potential, as the addition of Greg Jennings should help the Vikings diversify their attack, and thus potentially improve their 39.5 percent good blocking rate (GBR) that ranked 30th in the league.
15mMarc Stein and Tim MacMahon
2hMarc Stein and Calvin Watkins
1dEric D. Williams