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Insider

Best Week 1 Eliminator picks

9/6/2014 - NFL
Nick Foles and Chip Kelly have their eyes set on a Week 1 win over Jacksonville. Drew Hallowell/Philadelphia Eagles/Getty Images

Betting guide | Underdog value | NFL PickCenter | Eliminator picks

Each week, we at numberFire.com will be here with our projective modeling to help you survive and advance in your Eliminator pool. Our job is to provide the best information possible to empower smarter decision-making.

We'll provide three different versions of picks for you to choose from.

Survival Guide

Need help making your Eliminator selections? Check out Insider's latest tool right here.

Sign up for ESPN's Eliminator Challenge.

First, we will provide the win-maximizing pick of the week. This is based on the probability of a team winning combined with the percentage of the ESPN.com Eliminator Challenge population selecting each game. To do this, we generate every possible combination of outcomes each week (65,000-plus) so you can maximize your potential gains. In addition, we will look forward to future matchups to let you know which teams to keep in reserve and highlight the team most likely to win by our projections.

Keep in mind that we are dealing in probability and that upsets will happen.

To help you visualize, below is our Eliminator Pool threat matrix, which shows you how all 32 teams project each week based on our model. It will be updated for this column each Tuesday as results come in over the course of the season.

Here's a helpful guide to navigate the information:

Green: Our equity-maximizing pick of the week

Red: Popular pick: This is the consensus pick by you, the player

Brown: Max method: This finds the best matchup of the year and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season