Players who will score fewer TDs

Several big names among those whose point totals should drop

Originally Published: August 12, 2014
By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

Jimmy GrahamChris Graythen/Getty ImagesRecent history suggests Jimmy Graham is unlikely to match his 16-TD output of 2013.
Over the past six years, there have been 104 occasions when a non-quarterback scored 10-plus offensive touchdowns during the regular season. Of those 104, 85 (or 81.7 percent) saw their touchdown total drop the following year. Digging deeper, 71 (or 68 percent) scored fewer than 10 times the next season.

During that same span of six years, 37 players scored more than 12 offensive touchdowns during the regular season. Only one, Maurice Jones-Drew, scored more the next year, and the average Year 2 touchdown total is 7.8, which works out to a drop of almost seven scores per player.

The message here is simple: According to recent statistics, non-quarterbacks simply don't sustain high touchdown totals.

Below are 10 players whom opportunity-adjusted touchdown (OTD) analysis suggests are in for a drop in touchdowns this season. Of those players, eight scored 10 or more touchdowns last season.

Mike Clay

Fantasy Football
• Director and managing editor at Pro Football Focus Fantasy
• Writes the weekly "Fantasy 32" column on ESPN Insider