Commentary

Playing with Numbers: Analyzing catch rate

Updated: November 19, 2008, 11:35 AM ET
By Ken Daube | Special to ESPN.com
I'm down on Brandon Marshall. Part of it is because of the high expectations I had for him after he dismantled the Chargers to the tune of 18 catches for 166 yards and a score in Week 2, but the real nuts and bolts of it is Eddie Royal is proving to be just as explosive and an all-around better receiver. Don't get me wrong, Marshall is a solid fantasy wideout, probably still borderline No. 1 quality, but Royal's emergence should take Marshall's name out of the argument for overall top wide receiver.

Royal isn't just good; he's great. When you look at the numbers, you'll find Royal catches 73 percent of the balls thrown to him, but Marshall hauls the pigskin in only 57 percent of the time. When you compare those rates to Jay Cutler's completion percentage when he targets a wide receiver (62 percent), you'll see why I think it's probable that Cutler will be moving some of Marshall's targets Royal's way. Giving up targets is never a good way to build fantasy value.


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Ken Daube

Fantasy Football
Ken Daube is a fantasy football analyst for ESPN.com. He co-hosts "Fantasy Football Now" with Dave Rothenberg on Sundays between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET, which streams at ESPNNewYork.com, and can also be listened to via the ESPN Radio app.

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