Commentary

Playing with Numbers: Why Rivers' start is such a fluke

Updated: October 10, 2008, 11:35 AM ET
By Ken Daube | Special to ESPN.com
I do not have a grudge against the Chargers. However, by the end of this paragraph and based on last week's column, I can understand why the classy residents of San Diego might just feel that way. I'll just come right out and say it: Philip Rivers' hot start is a crazy fluke. Mathematically, his production to date is nothing more than a statistical anomaly. He has benefited significantly from improbable performances from his receiving corps and anyone expecting such incredible events to continue is simply oblivious to reality.

While I am at it, let me also break the hearts of those who have been encouraged by the solid start of J.T. O'Sullivan or the not-as-bad-as-expected performance of JaMarcus Russell. Their performances also reek of mathematical improbability.

Ken Daube

Fantasy Football
Ken Daube is a fantasy football analyst for ESPN.com. He co-hosts "Fantasy Football Now" with Dave Rothenberg on Sundays between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. ET, which streams at ESPNNewYork.com, and can also be listened to via the ESPN Radio app.

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