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Insider

Playing with Numbers: Big Play Rushes

10/1/2008

I am not crazy, nor am I an idiot. I am sworn to statistics as the lead indicator of a player's success. But it's not primary statistics I seek; rather, the hidden ones that really tell how a player is performing in relation to the opportunities he receives. Those opportunities are variable, especially on a game-to-game basis, so knowing the stat behind the stat will go a long way toward determining which players are primed for breakouts and busts.

With that in mind, I am officially jumping off the 2008 LaDainian Tomlinson bandwagon. He's still going to be a top-10 player, but as far as being the No. 1 or 2 fantasy producer, it isn't going to happen. He's lost a step. I don't care if others point to his four touchdowns over the past two weeks as a sign that he's his old dominant self; I'm chalking it up as a product of a generous schedule.