Answer Guys: Should T.O. and Romo be early picks?
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I picked Tony Romo 10th and Terrell Owens 11th overall in a recent mock draft. Were those good picks that early in the draft? Or should I have picked a running back first?
Darrell Davila
Dave: Our mock draft lobby is great, isn't it? Every fantasy owner at one time or another has wished they could fix a draft mistake by getting a do-over, so it's important to take advantage of the mock draft lobby that's made available to us for free. Having the luxury of being able to make mistakes and learn from them before your real draft is a valuable tool that I for one am not passing up.
It's easy to say that drafting Tony Romo and Terrell Owens as early as you did was a mistake, but it's not as far out of reach as it might seem. The reason is because of all the NFL teams that went to the "running back by committee" approach in 2007, which was more noticeable to fantasy owners than in any previous season.
Check out this list of running back tandems from last season, just to give you an idea:
Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor
Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister
Marion Barber and Julius Jones
Travis Henry and Selvin Young
Justin Fargas and LaMont Jordan
DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams
Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood
Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris
Given the upside of this year's rookie running back class, there's a good chance that the "RBBC approach" will be just as prevalent as it was in 2007, which spikes the value of quarterbacks and wide receivers in general. I'm attacking most of my drafts this year by using the "best available player" strategy, but I'm still going to put significant emphasis on running backs who won't be sharing the ball.
Anyway, here's a list of my top 15 players overall for 2008 drafts:
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Brian Westbrook
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Steven Jackson
5. Joseph Addai
6. Tom Brady
7. Larry Johnson
8. Ryan Grant
9. Frank Gore
10. Randy Moss
11. Peyton Manning
12. Marshawn Lynch
13. Marion Barber
14. Clinton Portis
15. Willis McGahee
As you can see, I have only one wide receiver and two quarterbacks on this list, so running backs without job-sharing issues are still the cream of the crop early on. In a recent experts draft that I participated in, Owens was drafted 15th overall, while Romo went 23rd. To answer your question more directly, I would've drafted a running back if Gore or Grant fell to me at 10; if not, then I would have gone with Moss or Manning. With the No. 11 pick, I would've gone with Moss or Manning if I had drafted a running back with the previous pick, or a good running back if I had gone the Moss or Manning route with the previous pick.
I can keep one of the following players in my keeper league: Andre Johnson, Tony Romo or Ryan Grant. I would prefer to draft a quarterback such as David Garrard in the middle rounds and add another quarterback like Matt Schaub a few rounds later, but I'm concerned that Grant is a one-year wonder. Plus, with Brett Favre retiring and the Packers' reluctance to give Grant a long-term contract, I'm worried Grant might not produce the numbers he did a year ago. Who should I keep?
Blake Guettler
Meanwhile, with Favre out of the picture, the Packers are going to rely more heavily on Grant to carry a substantial workload. He'll get more touches, especially during red zone situations, which will lead to more scoring opportunities. A good passing game will relieve pressure off the running game in most instances, so the question arises as to how well Aaron Rodgers will perform as the Packers' new starting quarterback. Fantasy owners are going to underestimate him going into their drafts, not realizing the impact that Favre had as a mentor to the 24-year-old Rodgers. There are obvious signs pointing to an increase in production from Grant with a full slate of games under his belt. Grant, Rodgers and the entire Packers offense is going to surprise a lot of folks in 2008, so I'd keep Grant. Anytime I have similar-value players at quarterback, running back and wide receiver, I'm going with the RB nine times out of 10.
Do you think it's a good idea to draft Ronnie Brown in the second or early-third round?
Gypsy
Dave: I won't tell you to stay away from Brown this year, but you should be very cautious about where you draft him. I wouldn't even think about Brown in the second round of my drafts, and the third round even seems like a stretch to me. Anytime a running back returns from major reconstructive knee surgery (an ACL, in this case), expectations need to be downgraded. In almost all cases regarding ACL repairs, players will need the following year for adjustment just to get back into playing shape. Recovery symptoms can include lack of strength, lack of conditioning, pain and the inability to cut back or move as swiftly as they had previously. Most running backs recovering from ACL injuries won't get their confidence back right away either. According to Medical News Today, players coming back from ACL surgery typically lose one-third of their previous performance levels in the following season.
I wouldn't grab Brown until the middle rounds of your draft, and only then if I couldn't draft a healthier up-and-coming option.
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