May 25, 2008, 3:10 PM

Answer Guys: When to draft a defense

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Hunter By Dave Hunter
ESPN.com
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You have questions, we have answers. The Answer Guys is an Insider service where ESPN.com experts personally answer questions about your fantasy team. These are a few of the more challenging questions we've received from Insiders and our answers.

What's the earliest round you would draft the Vikings defense?
Eric Hoppenstand

Dave: I don't draft a defense, the Vikings' or any team's, until the last two rounds of my drafts. The reason: The difference in point production between the top defenses and mid-level defenses over a full season of play doesn't justify an early or even mid-round draft pick. For example, here were the top defenses, and their overall point totals, in ESPN 10-team standard leagues in 2007:

Minnesota Vikings Defense
Tom Dahlin/Getty ImagesEven the mighty Vikings defense doesn't deserve a mid-round pick.
1. Chargers: 198
2. Patriots: 173
3. Seahawks: 169
4. Bears: 166
5. Vikings: 164
6. Colts: 146
7. Packers: 144
8. Buccaneers: 143
9 (tie). Cowboys, Giants and Titans: 133

This list goes to show you how unpredictable defensive production can be. For instance, the Chargers' defense had an average draft pick of 90 in 2007, while third-place Seattle had an ADP of 153. It's obvious that the difference in point production between the two defenses doesn't make up the difference between rounds drafted. One of the more interesting things to note is that the Ravens defense, which was drafted first in most leagues last year with an ADP of 62, ended the season with 91 total points, well outside the top 10. Don't draft a defense until near the end of your draft.

How good are LenDale White and Brandon Jacobs going to be next year and in the future?
Drodrigu

LenDale White
Bob Levey/Icon SMIThe Titans might have many backs to choose from in Tennessee, but LenDale White is still our favorite.
Dave: I'm slightly worried about what the future holds for White in Tennessee. He does have tremendous talent and he's a no-nonsense power running back, which is what NFL teams love, but with Chris Henry and Chris Johnson in town, that Titans' running back picture is really muddled. I still expect White to be the primary back for the Titans, but the margin for error will be much less than before. There are also rumors that the Titans could sign Ron Dayne, which would cloud things even more for the 2008 season. Why would they want Dayne? Because he would give the Titans another power option in case White is not ready to return from off-season knee surgery. He had the surgery to repair a torn meniscus, but it's worth noting that he suffered the injury last preseason and was tough enough to play the entire season with the injury. But White said recently that his knee feels good and that he'll be ready for the start of the season. He's still my pick of the bunch.

There's only one reason Jacobs won't be a perennial first-round pick for years to come: injuries. Imagine the numbers Jacobs would put up if he could keep himself on the field for an entire season. Instead, his owners should plan for a nick or two. That said, 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns is not out of the question for Jacobs in 2008. His size, along with his quick feet and the ability to move well for a big man, makes him a very attractive option this year and beyond. I would even go so far as to say that Jacobs has top 5 RB talent, but again, his future depends on his health. In drafts this year, I'm willing to take the chance on Jacobs as a high-risk/high-reward running back.

I'm in a keeper league in which we hold four players in the round they were originally drafted. Thanks to the Steelers' drafting of Rashard Mendenhall, holding Willie Parker in the third round makes no sense since he will be time-sharing and losing goal-line carries. I am forced to keep three wide receivers: Steve Smith (3rd round), Larry Fitzgerald (4th round) and Santonio Holmes (9th round), along with Tom Brady. I have no running backs that are keeper-worthy, and another owner is offering me Clinton Portis, who is a 10th-round keeper, for Fitzgerald. Should I take it, or should I ask for a draft pick in addition?
DMan

Willie Parker
Jason Bridge/US PresswireDon't be so quick to downgrade Willie Parker just because of Rashard Mendenhall.
Dave: To be honest, Parker as a third-rounder makes more sense to me than keeping your three wide receivers intact. He's still the primary running back for the Steelers, and he's going to get the bulk of the snaps, even if Mendenhall assumes the role of short-yardage back. Mendenhall will get his chances to score, but locking up Parker is more beneficial to the core of your team than holding on to Holmes. There's no denying the value of Holmes as a ninth-round pick, but securing your second running back is more important than your third wide receiver in this situation. The decision seems easy to me, mainly because I can't see Mendenhall, who already is dealing with hamstring issues, making that big of an impact as a rookie this year.

As far as the Portis deal, I would jump all over that offer. Getting Portis as a 10th-rounder is excellent value, and you really shore up your backfield when combined with Parker as a keeper. Losing Fitzgerald is tough to bear, but it's worth the price when you consider what you're receiving in return. His value alone as a 10th-rounder makes Portis worth his weight in gold. As far as your keepers, it would then narrow it down to Portis, Parker, Smith and Brady.

I need to pick three of the following four keepers: Marion Barber, Ryan Grant, Reggie Bush and Peyton Manning. This is a 10-team point-per-reception league with four points for passing touchdowns and six points for rushing and receiving touchdowns. I also have the first pick overall, and could draft whomever I don't keep, and there also are going to be receivers like Marques Colston, Andre Johnson, Chad Johnson, and Terrell Owens available (based on a check of the rosters in the league). I'm leaning toward keeping the three running backs, drafting one of the above receivers and waiting for a quarterback when the draft comes back around to me. Is this crazy?
Scuba

Dave: That's not crazy, but I would hold Ryan Grant, Marion Barber and Peyton Manning and let go of Bush. If you can start a third running back at a flex spot, Reggie Bush does deserve serious consideration because of his proficiency in PPR leagues, but Deuce McAllister will be healthy, or as healthy as two major knee surgeries will allow him to be. Even if you can start a third running back, though, letting one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL go back into your draft is tough to swallow. Manning's excellent production was underappreciated because of the incredible year that Tom Brady had in 2007; owners must remember that Manning threw for more than 4,000 yards and 34 combined passing and rushing touchdowns. I prefer Grant and Barber over Bush, mainly because of the workload I expect them to receive. With Julius Jones in Seattle now, Barber gets the chance to step things up in Dallas. Meanwhile, Grant will be one of the best fantasy running backs in 2008. I expect him to receive a ton of work throughout the year, especially if Brett Favre stays committed to his March retirement announcement. With your first overall pick, I would go with the best wide receiver available: Owens. Any of the receivers you listed would be fine additions to the keeper core I suggested, but Owens is the surest option to get the numbers you need.

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