Answer Guys: Mining the rookies for keepers
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I am in an NFL dynasty league, so our draft consists of mostly rookies. Can you rank the rookies that were just drafted in the context of their fit with the team that drafted them and how they should fare this year and beyond? It's a 12-team league, and I pick 11th, so if you could project the top 23 rookies, I'd appreciate it.
Jason Duhon
Dave: Thanks for the question, Jason. With the 2008 NFL Draft officially in the books, now is definitely the time to start thinking about how the rookie class will affect fantasy drafts. I've ranked the following 25 rookies, including a few snippets of my expectations for this season and beyond:
2. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Stewart is my next choice, considering the amount of playing time I expect him to get this year. He is a powerful back who will get plenty of opportunities to score.
3. Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys: Marion Barber is now officially the man in Dallas, but the Cowboys wanted to add another offensive threat to the mix. Jones will get time as a spark off the bench.
4. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers: If the Steelers were concerned with finding a strong back to power it in for rushing touchdowns, they found their man. Mendenhall will be great for short-yardage situations and as a backfield receiver.
5. Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons: With Michael Vick locked away for the next few years, the Falcons had a pressing need to draft a quarterback. Ryan will struggle initially, as most rookies do, but I love his long-term potential. What he lacks in vision, he makes up for everywhere else.
6. Kevin Smith, RB, Lions: Can Smith be the answer to the Lions' running back problem? I believe so. Not since Barry Sanders have the Lions had a reliable option in the backfield, which suggests that Smith will have an excellent shot at claiming the job out of camp.
7. Devin Thomas, WR, Redskins: With the 2008 wide receiver class lacking in general, Thomas is the best of the lot and gives fantasy owners a good points-per-reception option in years to come.
8. Limas Sweed, WR, Steelers: Sweed gives the Steelers the size they need. There aren't many weaknesses to his game, and if it wasn't for his wrist injury, he would've been drafted much sooner. Expect big things out of Sweed in the future, although he'll struggle to get playing time in '08.
9. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: It's his speed that ranks him so high on this list. He'll get chances as a kick returner and a third-down back.
10. Matt Forte, RB, Bears: Can you blame the Bears for drafting Forte? He's the most underrated running back of this year's class.
11. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Redskins: After Devin Thomas and Sweed, Kelly is the receiver for me long-term. The only negative: He has had problems staying healthy.
12. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers: A possession-type receiver who fits perfectly into the Packers' plans, he'll compliment Greg Jennings nicely in future years.
13. Jerome Simpson, WR, Bengals: The Bengals have serious issues with their wide receiving corps, so Simpson could step right in and contribute to fantasy rosters.
15. Mario Manningham, WR, Giants: A star in the making? Maybe. Off-field legal problems dropped him in the draft, and they drop him in my rankings too.
16. Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos: He'll give owners more value down the road in keeper leagues, but his lack of competition (Keary Colbert and others) give him a real shot at increased playing time this season.
17. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens: Rice lacks size and speed, but he has the intangibles to succeed otherwise.
18. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: Jackson is a few years away as a full-time option, but he will get opportunities to return punts.
19. Donnie Avery, WR, Rams: He'll be an asset for the Rams on third down when they open things up, but Avery has too many holes in his game that will keep him from becoming an elite fantasy wide receiver.
20. Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens: Two or three seasons down the road, Flacco will be a serviceable fantasy quarterback, with potential to develop into more. The Ravens think they finally landed their quarterback.
21. James Hardy, WR, Bills: As a big-play threat, he'll be in the Bills' scoring plans as soon as this season.
22. Dustin Keller, TE, Jets: A converted wide receiver, Keller will see action immediately.
23. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: Most of what Charles contributes this year will depend on how healthy Larry Johnson remains. He won't have much of an impact in fantasy circles in '08, but two or three years down the line, he could fill your need as a third running back.
24. Brian Brohm, QB, Packers: There is no guarantee that Aaron Rodgers locks up the job in Green Bay, so I like Brohm to give Rodgers some healthy competition, possibly stealing the job away.
25. Martellus Bennett, TE, Cowboys: Bennett is more of a wild card than anything, but I couldn't pass him up due to the comparisons to Chargers tight end Antonio Gates. As well as displaying his size and pass-catching abilities on the football field, Bennett also played two years of college basketball.
Why is everyone all of a sudden so down on Marvin Harrison? It doesn't make sense to me. The season before he got hurt, he was the No. 1 ranked fantasy receiver, but since he was injured last year, all of a sudden critics are saying he's no longer the same and that he'll now be the second option with the Colts.
David Almeida
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Dave: There's really only one reason why I'm down on Harrison (other than his potential legal troubles): the knee injury he sustained in 2007. Not that the injury itself was devastating, but Harrison injured the bursa sac, which is very difficult to fully recover from. The bursa sac creates cushion in between the bone and tendons of the joint, and when the area is injured, it creates friction, swelling and discomfort, and in more serious cases, bone spurs. When Harrison gets back on the field, the knee could still be bothersome, preventing him from being the top-notch receiver he once was. Yes, he has been fantastic over the course of his career and has made his fantasy owners very happy in the process, but if I have the choice to draft an emerging young talent (i.e. - Brandon Marshall) over an aging, rehabbing Harrison, the choice is easy for me - I'm drafting the youngster.
The fantasy world is hoping Harrison will be ready for the start of the season, and unless he suffers a setback in his rehab process, Harrison will likely recover and go on to have a good year as a No. 2 receiver for your fantasy squad. Counting on Harrison for anything more than that is risky, at best, during this stage of his career, especially when younger, non-injured options will be available.
I'm in a dynasty league and have been offered this trade: Felix Jones and Sidney Rice for Ray Rice and a first-round pick in 2009. The pick projects to be a late-first-round pick (7-10 spots)
Seb1975
Dave: Assuming these are some of the players who might be available with that first-round pick, I'd make this trade: Pat White, P.J. Hill, Ian Johnson, Darrius Heyward-Bey, James Davis, Knowshon Moreno, Mike Goodson, Marlon Lucky, C.J. Spiller, Maurice Wells, Michael Crabtree, Brian Robiskie and Demetrius Byrd.
Felix Jones rates out as a better running back than Ray Rice does. However, both will see significant time this year. I like Jones' big-play ability just a little more than the skills that Rice brings to the table long-term. Not that Rice will be a horrible back by any means, but I'm just not crazy about his lack of size. With Sidney Rice, you get a wide receiver who can use his speed to make plays. He had a decent rookie year and will build on that in 2009. If you had an early draft pick and could assure yourself of drafting Chris Wells, Percy Harvin or Tim Tebow, then I'd tell you to stay put, but since that's likely not the case, I'd make the move.
I am in a 10-man keeper dynasty league. My current roster includes Julius Jones and Maurice Morris. Do either have real fantasy value in a back by committee? Is T.J. Duckett a better handcuff to Jones?
Dave Hirselj
Dave: First off, let me just say that I love that Julius Jones has moved on to greener pastures. The move to Seattle will really boost his fantasy value this season. I'd love to get my hands on him as my Flex RB in standard leagues, and I'd even draft him as my No. 2 RB if the situation presented itself. As far as the timeshare issue, I'm not buying into it. Yes, Jones may lose some carries to Duckett and Morris, maybe in short-yardage situations, but it's not going to be enough to get me riled up. Marion Barber won't be invading Jones' dreams at night, so he can sleep much easier knowing he's numero uno in Mike Holmgren's offense. If I was going to handcuff Jones, I would draft Morris before I would draft Duckett.
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