Fantasy TEs on the rise, decline

Yards per route run reveals Brandon Myers' upside, Jermichael Finley's slide

Originally Published: October 17, 2012
By Neil Hornsby | Pro Football Focus
Jermichael Finley AP Photo/Jon FerreyThe Packers' Jermichael Finley sits near the bottom of the YpRR tight end rankings.

Our first article in this Yards per Route Run (YpRR) series examined the top fantasy wide receivers over the first two weeks of the season, followed a couple of weeks later by a second installment that outlined wide receivers on the rise and decline. This week, we apply the same metrics to tight ends.

Though snap data is readily available and yields basic information for simple analysis, it doesn't provide much help in understanding a player's fantasy value and potential. At Pro Football Focus, we keep our own snap data and, as a result, can break down whether those snaps were run or pass plays and what the players did on those snaps (i.e., block, run a route, etc.).

Using extensive snap data, here's an in-depth look at some of the best and worst fantasy tight ends from a YpRR perspective (of the 38 players with a minimum of 14 targets).

Falling starters

Tony Moeaki, Kansas City Chiefs (38th, YpRR of 0.55)

Much was expected from Moeaki this season after he missed all of last year with an injury following an excellent rookie season in 2010. There are many players on the Chiefs squad who've failed to deliver on their potential, so maybe it's harsh to single out Moeaki; however, his performance in the passing game has been woeful. Among tight ends, only Rob Gronkowski and Brent Celek have played more snaps than Moeaki. Plus, his 179 routes run is still a lot even in a run-first offense. However, his 94 yards on 18 targets is certainly not impressive, and it doesn't help that he's dropped a couple of balls.


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