Week 6 fantasy projections

Sit Ahmad Bradshaw and Matthew Stafford; start Kevin Kolb and Greg Little

Originally Published: October 10, 2012
By Danny Tuccitto | Football Outsiders
Matthew Stafford Cary Edmondson/US PresswireMatthew Stafford only has three touchdown passes in four games this season.

The tables are extra-large this week, and so are my player comments, so I'll keep the introduction short and sweet and get right to the fantasy advice. Last week, I introduced the newcomers to how our matchup analysis works here on ESPN Insider. With byes in full swing, I'll point newcomers to one of my favorite bye-week strategies, which I explained in full in last year's Week 5 column (you can read the whole thing here). The gist of the strategy (with an apt name, as you'll see) is that when you're in a head-to-head league and have a major bye-week issue in the upcoming weeks, what you want to do is pawn that problem off via trade to the fantasy owner that you play the problem week in question. Essentially, you're totally flipping the game advantage in your favor by doing so.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 6:

Quarterbacks

Kevin Kolb (plus-4 points)

Last week, we predicted that Kolb's road matchup against the St. Louis Rams' third-ranked pass defense would cost him about four fantasy points, given his personal average of 17.3; he scored 12.7. Hey, sometimes this stuff actually works!

Well, this week he's got the ultimate bounce-back matchup: at home against a Buffalo Bills pass defense ranked 30th in DVOA (explained here) that just allowed Alex Smith to throw for 300-plus yards for only the third time in his career -- and the first time since October 2010. Armed with that knowledge, it's not surprising that Buffalo has also given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Here are two other things worth considering. First, since Kolb vividly displayed last Thursday why he's one of the worst quarterbacks in football when pressured by the pass rush, you'll be happy to know the Bills defense only has 10 sacks through five games. Second, although the Bills are horrible in run defense too, Arizona's backfield has been reduced to a three-man committee of replacement-level talents.

Matthew Stafford (minus-2 points)


To read more fantasy advice, including which players you should start and which you should avoid in Week 6, you must be an ESPN Insider.