Week 4 fantasy projections

Sit Eli Manning and Brandon Marshall; start Michael Turner

Originally Published: September 26, 2012
By Danny Tuccitto | Football Outsiders
Eli ManningJeff Siner/Charlotte Observer/MCTEli Manning doesn't have a good matchup this week against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Right around Week 4, people begin peppering me with all kinds of trade-related questions. Should I get rid of this guy? Should I hold onto this other guy? Who are good buy-low candidates? Who are good sell-high candidates? Sure enough, I've gotten a ton over the past several days.

So I figured I'd take a look at the most underachieving and overachieving players so far this season, and give some insight into which ones I think are likely to improve, decline or stay the same over time.

Looking back at our KUBIAK projections from before the season I targeted our top 15 quarterbacks, top 30 running backs, top 30 wide receivers and top 15 tight ends. These are the players we projected to be in starting fantasy lineups. Then I compared their projected points per game to their actual points per game through three weeks, and turned that into an "overachievement percentage" or an "underachievement percentage."

What you see in the table below are the top and bottom groups of over- and underachievers for each position. For instance, Robert Griffin III was among our top 15 projected quarterbacks, and he's surpassed his points-per-game projection by 172.3 percent, which is the highest overachievement percentage among those 15 quarterbacks. You can read the table the same way for the other positions.


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