- KC Joyner, NFL Insider
The toughest choices that fantasy owners make in a draft are the blackjack picks.
What are blackjack picks? An example might be the best way to explain.
Imagine a 12-round snake draft in which a team selects sixth in the first round. That means the team will have the sixth, 19th, 30th and 43rd picks in the first four rounds.
Now imagine that the team's owner makes safe picks in Rounds 1 and 2. Round 3 rolls around, and the owner starts thinking about a potential risk/reward upside pick for the No. 30 draft slot. The decision is compounded not only because of the potential risk but also because of the possibility the upside choice might last until the No. 43 pick.
That's where the team owner has a blackjacklike quandary. Is the correct choice to say "hit me!" and take the chance that a player will be worth the more valuable earlier pick or say "stay" and play it safe with another prospect?
One could go with gut instinct or pure luck to decide, but the better way to approach this is via the same method that blackjack card sharks use: get as much information as you can to turn the odds as close to your favor as possible.
It is with this thought in mind that Insider is launching a three-part series that uses information found in my fantasy football draft guide to help determine which of those blackjack picks are worth saying "hit me!" for.
Monday's review will take a look at the running back position; on Wednesday there will be an overview of wide receivers; and on Friday we'll concentrate on quarterbacks.