Commentary

FBO: Time for an upgrade

It may be time to dump the one who got you this far, in a fantasy sense

Updated: December 4, 2009, 1:05 PM ET

By Bill Barnwell | Football Outsiders

You know that saying about dancing with the one that brought you? It doesn't apply to fantasy football. Just because a player got you points earlier in the year doesn't mean he's going to during fantasy crunch time. Much like real life, being overly sentimental in matters of business may very well end up in disappointment.

Take last year's quarterback crop as an example. Over the first three weeks, nine players appeared one or more times as one of the top five scorers of the week, including Drew Brees (twice), Jay Cutler (twice), Brian Griese, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, J.T. O'Sullivan, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner.

Fast-forward to Weeks 14 through 16, the playoff weeks for most leagues. Some of those players had lost their jobs. Twelve different players appeared in the top five scorers of the week over those three weeks; only two, Cutler and Rivers (twice), had appeared in the top five during the first three weeks. The new top fives included Matt Cassel (twice), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jeff Garcia, David Garrard, Peyton Manning (twice), Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Tyler Thigpen and Seneca Wallace. Relying on old stalwarts like Brees, Manning, McNabb, or Warner would've yielded suboptimal weeks.

To continue reading Football Outsiders' analysis -- including lists of the 32 players with the most favorable matchups in Week 13, plus the 32 least favorable ones -- you must be an ESPN Insider.