Scout Team: The perfect trade offer
As the fantasy trade deadline approaches, psychological tricks will make you a winner
Let's play a game of "Would you rather?"
Pretend you are poor: Would you rather have $10 now or $20 a week from now?
Pretend you are hungry: Would you rather eat one marshmallow right now or three marshmallows in 15 minutes?
Pretend you are setting your fantasy lineup: Would you rather have three killer predictions and projections from Fantasy Scout in this very paragraph or eight killer predictions and projections down below?
If you are anything like your fellow irrational man, your answers are as follows: $10 now, marshmallow now, three predictions now. Now, now, now. Forget later. Give it to me now.
It's not entirely unreasonable that we discount future payoffs, of course. Future payoffs are fraught with risk. Maybe those marshmallows would melt in the 15 minutes you'd wait for them, leaving you with nothing but an empty belly. But what is unreasonable is the degree to which we discount those future payoffs -- numerous studies show that it's typically way out of proportion to the risk involved. You might even say it's downright hyperbolic, this discounting that we do. Which is why it's called hyperbolic discounting. Got to love the poetry.
Here's something else you should love about hyperbolic discounting: the opportunity it offers you to fleece your fantasy rival in a trade.
Let's play "Would you rather?" once more.
Pretend you are fighting for a playoff spot: Would you rather own Anquan Boldin or T.J. Houshmandzadeh?
All players being healthy, most owners would answer Boldin. More explosive offense, a little younger, bigger upside. And, in fact, Boldin went about a round higher than Housh did in most fantasy drafts. But of course, all players aren't healthy. Boldin has a bum ankle, and he's likely going to miss a week or two. So the question becomes, how much will your fellow owner -- let's call him Mongo -- discount Boldin for his injury? Enough that Mongo will trade him straight-up for Housh? Enough that Mongo might even give you a throw-in? Well, Mongo's discount likely will be more severe than the injury risk justifies, so it's certainly worth finding out. Float him a trade offer. A lowball trade offer. Maybe he'll bite.
Speaking of now versus later, I promised you last week that we'd run through the perfect opening offer, taking advantage of our goody bag of psychological tricks: loss aversion and the anchoring effect and hyperbolic discounting. You've waited long enough. It's time to deliver, short and sweet -- and annotated! Boldin is our target. Mongo, fighting for a playoff spot, is his owner.
Dearest Mongo,
I'm guessing you're going to want some help at receiver now that Boldin is injured (1); can't afford a hole in your lineup with the division race so tight. I've got a guy who can step in right away and keep you from giving away points at receiver (2). You might know his name, even if you can't spell it. I speak, of course, of T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
What I propose is simple: Housh for Boldin and Felix Jones (3). I think we should do this because (4) you'll get a guy who can keep your ship from sinking now. Imagine what he'll do when he faces the Lions in Week 9 (5)! Meanwhile, I'm willing to roll the dice on two guys who might help me later.
Let me know what you think. Another owner is interested in Housh, so I'd like to act sooner than later.
Thanks, buddy.
Notes
(1) Hyperbolic discount, you rascal, come out and play.
(2) People hate losing things more than they like gaining things -- by a factor of two! So rather than detailing what Mongo will gain by acquiring Housh, I'm emphasizing what he'll lose by not acquiring him.
(3) This trade offer is borderline unreasonable. I don't expect Mongo to accept it. But all negotiations flow from opening offers, and the more extreme that opening offer, the more likely the final deal will be in your favor. If he rejects this deal as expected, I'll remove Jones from the table and offer Housh for Boldin straight-up. Seems fair, at least compared to the original offer.
(4) Studies show people are more likely to oblige your request if that request contains the word "because." This holds even if the reason that follows "because" is completely inane. Why is because so uniquely persuasive? Just because. (OK, there's a longer explanation, but we'll skip it in the name of expediency.)
(5) The endowment effect, which says that people overvalue the things they own, is the main obstacle to deals. But here, I want Mongo to imagine owning Housh so that he'll value him more. Sound stupid? Well, there's a reason car dealerships beg you to take out their cars for a test drive or why so many retail stores offer money-back guarantees. They know once you try something on or test it out, you'll probably want to keep it. Ownership has its privileges -- and its diabolical clutches.
So go forth, be bold and trade as if your season depends on it. But before you do, Fantasy Scout proudly presents nine predictions and projections guaranteed to send a thrill up your peg leg, pirate.
If you don't own Kurt Warner, see what it would take to get him.
I don't care how many points Warner scores, the guy who owns him is undoubtedly freaked that this will be the week he takes a body blow that snaps a lung. His injury risk, combined with a shaky two-week stretch, could mean he's available at a decent price. Now here's why you want him: With a Week 15 matchup at Detroit, followed by a Week 16 matchup versus St. Louis, Fantasy Scout projects him to score close to 20 points a game in the fantasy playoffs, just a tad more than Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. And more than a certain guy down in Texas. Well, Tony Romo, obviously. But also ...
If you own Matt Schaub, now might be a good time to test his trade value.
The Owen Daniels injury obviously hurts. But not nearly as much as his stretch-run schedule, with two matchups against the Colts (Week 9, Week 12), the middle-of-the-pack Seahawks in Week 15, the Patriots for those who still play in Week 17, not to mention his Week 10 bye. Of course, he also draws the Titans in Week 11, the Jaguars in Week 13 and the Rams in Week 15. But overall, Fantasy Scout sees 13 quarterbacks outscoring him the rest of the way. Even if you're going by points per game, he still barely projects as a top-10 guy.
If you own Brett Favre and need a bye-week fill-in and are unmoved by our months-long crusade to sign a Niners quarterback, then fine, be that way. Go sign Vince Young instead.
Fantasy Scout sees VY scoring 11 or so points against San Francisco -- more than you can expect from Matthew Stafford, Chad Henne, Josh Freeman or any of the other widely available quarterbacks this week. Just don't expect season-long miracles -- or even 200-yard games. Fantasy Scout doesn't even see Young as a top-20 quarterback the rest of the way. You probably can imagine the reasons.
If you don't know what to make of the Texans' backfield situation, allow Fantasy Scout to shed some light (albeit dim light).
Fantasy Scout is one sophisticated mamma-jamma; to generate its projections, it takes into account more than 50 matchup factors, from playcalling trends to historical factors to strength of defense. But what it can't do is read coaches' minds. That would be evil. So it can only guess how Gary Kubiak will divide the carries going forward. But based on the histories of Steve Slaton (whom Fantasy Scout called out two weeks ago as someone you should sell high on) and Ryan Moats, it makes the reasonable assumption that neither guy has the game to seize the job moving forward. Meaning, they'll likely divide carries almost evenly between them for the near future, with Slaton producing just a few more fantasy points than Moats -- but neither guy ranking as a top-30 back moving forward.
If you signed Miles Austin three weeks ago, yeah, yeah, yeah, you're a genius. Now shut up and keep playing him.
Who you calling a three-hit wonder? As Austin proved last week, he's not just a big-play artist, he's also a go-to red zone target, which should allay any concerns that he'll run hot and cold. In fact, Fantasy Scout projects him to outscore all but three wide receivers moving forward.
If you own Braylon Edwards, don't let him anywhere near your starting lineup.
As shaky as Mark Sanchez has been the past month, Fantasy Scout assumes he'll only get worse as the cold weather sweeps the nation. And with Thomas Jones on a roll -- Fantasy Scout projects him to earn more carries than any other back in the second half -- there just won't be that many balls flying around in the Meadowlands. Fantasy Scout places Edwards in the Nate Washington/Lance Moore class of No. 5 guys you keep on your roster more out of inertia than the hope they'll help you.
If you own Malcom Floyd, don't uncork the Riunite just yet.
OK, so the Chargers have cut Chris Chambers. Big deal. Floyd already had surpassed him on the depth chart, so it's not as if there's this new flurry of footballs about to fly his way. Fantasy Scout thinks Floyd will continue to deliver a few big plays here and there, but not enough consistent touches to be a reliable No. 2 fantasy option. Shoot, it doesn't even see Floyd as a top-50 receiver in the second half.
If you own Owen Daniels, go ahead and uncork that Riunite. Your sorrows will need drowning.
The free-agent tight end market is just not good. Todd Heap is probably good for four to five points a game; same for Tony Scheffler or Ben Watson. But there's no sleeper lying in wait, no new Vernon Davis about to blow up. Kevin Boss and Dustin Keller do not quite qualify. Daniels' replacement, Joel Dreessen, most certainly does not qualify. Poor you. It does not feel so good, does it?
Scott Burton is the fantasy sports and NFL editor for ESPN The Magazine.
