Advanced metrics: SPs to buy/sell

A few weeks ago, we examined some of the more common pitching metrics and elucidated what's in a pitcher's control and what's left to fate. To review briefly, a pitcher's strikeout and walk rates best identify a pitcher's skill. Home runs and hits allowed entail both skill and luck elements. With home runs, the skill involves inducing more ground balls, while the luck deals with the percentage of fly balls that leave the yard. When examining hits on balls in play, ground ball pitchers surrender more "safeties" than fly ball pitchers. Meanwhile, the ability to consistently and repeatedly induce weaker contact is being investigated and cannot yet be conclusively deemed a skill.

To see Todd's statistical examination of such players as Jon Lester and Tim Lincecum, you must be an ESPN Insider.

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