10 players I'm not buying this season
In our preseason sleepers and busts column that was published on Feb. 8, I wrote the following about Adam Wainwright:
"The elbow stiffness that sidelined him late last season is enough of an issue for me to not take him among the first half-dozen starters. Given many scouts have long had concerns about his arm action, and the fact he has pitched with a partial tear in the ligament for some time, I will be overly cautious. If that means he won't ever be on my roster, so be it. I think there's a more elevated injury risk here than most think."
Two weeks later, we all know what happened. I had a hunch that turned out to be the right call, but it came from a philosophy of being risk averse, at least when it comes to injuries. I do take my fair share of risks but I tend to do it with younger players with upside rather than with players with injury concerns, unless I really like the price. If I'm taking one of the top five starting pitchers, as Wainwright was projected to be, I want to have minimal health worries, at least as minimal as you can get with a pitcher. Thus, even before the injury, Wainwright would have been on a list of players I would not have bought this year because of what it would have cost to acquire him balanced with what I perceived as too much risk.
That's the key when I talk about players I'm not buying this season. These are not players I'm avoiding completely or not buying under any circumstances. Sometimes you draft a player that you didn't really want, but the potential value was too much to pass up. This list tends to be more about not paying the going rate. They'll likely cost more than I want to invest.
While I do talk about some players with injury concerns, I've tried to avoid some of the more obvious ones such as Chase Utley, Justin Morneau and Andrew Bailey. You don't need me to tell you to be cautious there.
With that in mind, here are 10 players I'm not pursuing this season.
2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
2011 Projections and Profiles
• Top 300 | AL-only | NL-only | Cheat sheets
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Talented Mr. Roto
• Cockcroft's dream team
• 2011 sleepers and busts
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• Jason Grey's plant-my-flag players
• Should you buy in: 20 youngsters
• Eric Karabell's "Do Not Draft" list
• Jason Grey's "10 I'm not buying" list
• Notable offseason moves | All moves
• Kings of Command: Pitching sleepers
• The real value of the Player Rater
• Rankings summit recap
Strategy/Primers• How best to apply the BABIP stat
• Deconstructing ERA