For a brief period last season, the Reds were the toast of the National League Central. Winners of 17 of their first 24 games, they held at least a share of the division lead as deep into the season as July 1. But Cincinnati managed merely a 36-46 record from that date forward, displaying the kind of inconsistency that has characterized the team so far this century. It marked the sixth straight year the Reds finished with a losing record.
Part of the problem is that the Reds' roster is filled with high-risk, high-reward players. On the hitting side, for instance, players like Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr. and Edwin Encarnacion bring big power, but also big strikeout totals. As a team, the Reds finished third in the majors in home runs (217), but also sixth in strikeouts (1,192). Those lofty homer numbers might attract less-experienced fantasy players -- they should change that old slogan to "chicks and fantasy owners dig the long ball" -- but the team's 28th-ranked batting average (.257) tells the true story of this team's up-and-down performance.
Let's look at the Reds' hitters individually: Dunn is coming off three consecutive years of 40-plus homers, yet he's a career .245 hitter who batted .234 in 2006. Griffey has averaged one homer per 14.6 at-bats the past four seasons -- 34 per 500 at-bats -- but 93.3 games played during that span. Brandon Phillips managed a 17-homer, 25-steal breakout season in 2006, but had a .243 batting average and .287 on-base percentage after the All-Star break. Encarnacion has 24 homers and 103 RBI in 617 big-league at-bats the past two years, but has struck out once per 5.3 at-bats. There's upside here, but expect the lineup to run cold at times, during which time all Reds players might be tough to have active.
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