Posted by Eric Karabell
When an American League pitcher switches over to the National League, the prevailing opinion is that his ERA will drop quite a bit because he gets to face pitchers rather than designated hitters. Hey, it makes sense to me, and the stats bear this out. Fewer runs per game are scored in the NL, in part because pitching to
Aaron Harang three times rather than
Travis Hafner has to be easier, right? However, with one month down, it's no longer such a big gap that we should evaluate pitchers differently. The current league ERA in the NL is 4.07, and in the AL, it's 4.23. In 2007, it was also a small difference, 4.43 to 4.51. Maybe the designated hitter isn't such a big deal anymore, eh?
At the same time, when someone such as Dontrelle Willis switches leagues the other way, everyone assumes said pitcher will see his ERA blow up. It's one of the age-old theories of fantasy baseball, that you want the pitchers who move to the NL but want to avoid those entering the AL. The thing is, if Willis were healthy right now, would he have much problem facing today's designated hitters? They call them designated hitters for a reason, and it's not because they are paid to pitch or to flash leather in the field. Right now, quite a few of these designated hitters have batting averages in the designated Mario Mendoza range.
In looking at the big preseason designated hitters selected on draft day, few of them seem to be enjoying themselves very much. Jim Thome is sputtering along with a .228 average, and he's the leader in the clubhouse of this group. Hafner's struggles have been well documented, as he was in a 7-for-51 slump and got benched Wednesday before slapping a few doubles Thursday. David Ortiz is starting to hit a bit, but he's still showing a .196 batting average. Frank Thomas got released by his first team this season. Gary Sheffield hasn't been able to shoulder the load. Jose Vidro might lose his starting role with Jeff Clement being called up from the minors. Jack Cust and his three true outcomes have turned into two, with the power missing. He went nearly a month in between home runs, and the season is all of a month old. This group of seven was hitting a cumulative .197 for the season entering May, and not helping fantasy owners very much.
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Eric Karabell
