Rookies tend to break hearts in fantasy sports, and it's no different in baseball. You can check out who the top prospects are, and learn all about Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria and Clay Buchholz. I have opinions on which of these broader set of kiddies is going to make it in 2008 and which aren't, and it's going to lean toward the "aren't" part. How long did it take B.J. Upton to make it? You think his younger brother is such a lock for immediate stardom? What is Andy Marte up to these days? How much have Ian Stewart and Felix Pie helped your fantasy teams?
Look, I'm sure you're doing your homework for this season, learning all you can about the newest crop of young players sure to make a big impact. Now do me a favor: Check out the group from 2007, because most top prospects eventually do make it, but not in the first year. Hmmm, what about the second year?
In recent drafts, I took the sophomore route on a few picks, and in each case my thinking went, how could everyone have just forgotten about these guys? Once a top prospect, always a top prospect, and while I certainly lean toward hitters rather than pitchers eventually fulfilling their lofty expectations, I'd consider Andrew Miller, for example, in the right spot. The point is, a lot of people thought a lot of good things about the 2007 rookies heading into the season, and just because some of them failed, to a degree, doesn't mean they will always fail.
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Eric Karabell
