The Bills' and Browns' coaching jobs
Sunday, November 22, 2009 | Print Entry
New Orleans' secondary has additions and subtractions for Sunday's game at Tampa Bay.
Safety Darren Sharper is expected back in the Saints' starting lineup after missing last week's game with a knee injury. Rookie first-round draft pick Malcolm Jenkins is expected to make his first start at cornerback.
But the Saints will be without their two starting cornerbacks, Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter. Greer is nursing a groin injury, Porter a knee injury.
Also, recently signed cornerback Chris McAlister is expected to be deactivated Sunday. The Saints are pleased with how quickly McAlister has adapted to the team both physically and mentally, but they've decided not to use him Sunday.
But New Orleans is less worried about its pass defense than its run defense, which has been gashed lately. The Saints still will be without defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis, who will miss his fourth straight game with a knee injury but could be back for next Monday night's game against New England.
And remember, New Orleans has not fared well in Tampa, losing three of its past four games there.
Injury woes for Steelers and Ravens
As Pittsburgh and Baltimore try to overtake Cincinnati in the AFC North, each will have to do it without a defensive star.
Steelers safety Troy Polamalu will not play Sunday at Kansas City and is expected to be sidelined about a month with a strained ligament in his knee, said a source close to the situation. The Steelers have been tight-lipped about Polamalu's knee since he hurt it last week, but it is a different injury from the one he sustained in Pittsburgh's regular-season opener. It will not require surgery but will require Polamalu to miss what is thought to be about a month.
It's a similar timeline for Ravens outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, who strained his medial collateral ligament during Monday night's win over Cleveland. Some doctors think Suggs will miss as little as three weeks, while others predict as many as six. The conservative estimate is about a month.
Holmgren rumblings
Mike Holmgren's name continues to be linked to Mike Shanahan's, Bill Cowher's, Jon Gruden's, Brian Billick's and any of the other top available coaches.
But there is a difference: Those who know Holmgren insist he won't return to coach. They say he'll return as a president, a football czar.
Most believe the job he wants is in Seattle, where Seahawks president/general manager Tim Ruskell is in the last year of his contract and has not had his contract renewed. The fact that he hasn't is the reason so many people in the league are so curious about the situation in Seattle.
It's no secret around the league that Holmgren and Ruskell didn't see eye to eye. If Seattle makes a change, it could hand off its franchise to Holmgren, who wouldn't have to move from the city he lives in.
And Holmgren's interest in Seattle also could help explain why he has seemed to be in no particular rush to give an answer to Cleveland.
How to fix the Browns
Let's be clear about this: Czars are for Russia, not Cleveland.
What the Browns are looking for is an inspired football leader, someone fundamentally sound in personnel and leadership.
Even though Browns owner Randy Lerner has termed the position a "football czar," it is far more of a traditional general manager job. Whoever is hired would work closely with other front-office leaders.
Most assume that by now Lerner has met with Holmgren about the position. But Lerner also is said to be leaning on the advice of wise NFL consultants to find the person, be it Holmgren or another candidate, who understands the significance of this job and is prepared to immerse himself in it.
Rules prohibit the Browns from interviewing those candidates with the season only in Week 11. But they do have a checklist of other candidates with whom they cannot speak yet.
Until the Browns hire a new football leader, people will continue to wonder how Cleveland could ever challenge Pittsburgh. But keep this in mind: Back in the day, people wondered how Pittsburgh would challenge Cleveland. In 1969, after they had been through 11 coaches and seasons of struggles, the Steelers hired Chuck Noll, who used to play for Paul Brown in Cleveland from 1953 to '59. And then, with some patience, care and good luck, the change was on.
Now, people are wondering how and whether Cleveland can challenge Pittsburgh. It is up to Lerner, and those he leans on, to figure it out.
Bills meeting with Shanahan
Sometime within the next week, the Bills will meet with former Broncos coach Shanahan.
And as the Bills go Big Bear Hunting for a coach of Shanahan's caliber, nobody should wonder how they will afford him. It could be as simple as this:
Wide receiver Terrell Owens' one-year, $6.5 million contract will be up after the season. Buffalo could take T.O.'s money and pay it to a coach such as Shanahan. It's a cost-benefit analysis that Buffalo already has done.
But clearly there has been a shift in the direction of the franchise, a change in its thinking. Rather than pouring money into players who haven't produced in recent seasons, the Bills now are prepared to pour it into a coach who can provide stability and success.
Bills owner Ralph Wilson has gone the hot assistant route, hiring Gregg Williams and Mike Mularkey. He's gone the experienced route, hiring Dick Jauron. But he's never gone the proven winner route in the form of a coach such as Shanahan. Now, as the Bills revamp their football operation, Wilson is prepared to try.
Ironically, Bills safety Donte Whitner cost Buffalo one of its selling points.
Back in 2006, the Bills used the eighth overall draft pick on Ohio State safety Donte Whitner. Three picks later, the Broncos traded with St. Louis to move up to No. 11 and to draft Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler.
Had Buffalo drafted Cutler instead of Whitner, it might have been easier to lure Shanahan to Buffalo. Of course, then Buffalo might not have wound up firing Jauron last week anyway, but it is an interesting point to ponder.
The Bills did inquire about Holmgren and Gruden. But for now they are focusing on Shanahan and seeing where that situation goes first.
Bills may have interest in Weis
Many believe that Charlie Weis is on the verge of losing his job at Notre Dame. If he does, do not dismiss the idea that he could wind up interviewing for Buffalo's coaching job, even though Weis' stock is down these days.
Back when the Bills hired Mularkey as their coach earlier this decade, one of the finalists for the job was none other than Weis.
If the Bills are unable to lure one of the big names to Buffalo, they might explore the idea of a coach who is well versed in the New England system, who might have some ideas about how to beat the Patriots, who already has interviewed well in Buffalo before.
It's not a likely solution, but it's not out of the question, either.
Gruden to stay with MNF
Despite the announcement last week that ESPN signed Gruden to a contract extension, people still are having a hard time believing that Gruden won't coach in 2010.
But he will not. Multiple people close to Gruden have confirmed that the only place football fans will see Gruden in 2010 is in the "Monday Night Football" booth, not on the sideline. The soonest Gruden will coach is 2011.
But with a potential work stoppage looming over the NFL for 2011, it's conceivable that the next time Gruden coaches will be in 2012. But the one certain thing despite the skeptics and doubters is that Gruden will not coach anywhere in 2010.
JaMarcus Russell's future
Last week, JaMarcus Russell landed on the bench. During the offseason, he could land up unemployed.
With an uncapped year expected in 2010, the Raiders would be given a window of time during the offseason to dump Russell, the former No. 1 overall pick, without absorbing all the salary-cap ramifications.
As it is now, Russell is scheduled to carry a $15 million salary-cap figure for 2010, only $3 million of which is guaranteed. If ever there were a time for the Raiders to release Russell, it could well be during the offseason, when there will be no salary cap.
The one criticism of Russell from NFL executives is that the game never became important enough to him, so he didn't work hard enough at it. Perhaps a light will go on for Russell, as it seemingly has during the past month for Titans quarterback Vince Young. But for now, he is finished as a starter in Oakland.
Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Oakland Raiders
Chargers can't contend for AFC with suspect D
Friday, November 20, 2009 | Print Entry
Adam Schefter answers readers' questions nearly every day in his blog. On Friday, he's taking a look at Sunday's AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and the San Diego Chargers. Have a query of your own? Submit it here.
Q: Over the past few weeks, the Chargers have pulled out some great games, but their defense still looks pretty shaky. (Frankly, it's a miracle they won that game against the Eagles when they gave up 450 passing yards to McNabb.) Can they really expect to be contenders with so many questions on D?
-- Jim (San Diego)
A: Jim: Contenders for what, the AFC West title? Yes. For the AFC championship -- I don't see that, not if San Diego is playing defense the way we've seen. How could the Chargers be expected to slow down Indianapolis or New England or Pittsburgh? Don't see it. There still is time to improve, and you never know how a season will unfold, but San Diego can't go far unless its defense toughens up.
Q: I think the AFC west is going to come down to this Sunday's game in Denver. The Chargers definitely have the advantage of momentum but the Broncos had their number last time around. Has anything changed in these two teams that leads you to believe anything different will happen this Sunday?
-- Mark (Birmingham, Ala.)
A: Yeah, Mark, the division has been flipped around. Hard to imagine that San Diego was 2-3 at a time Denver was 6-0. For the Chargers, as Yogi Berra would say, it got late early. And then it didn't, just like that. All the confidence and momentum Denver had is lost. All the confidence and momentum San Diego didn't have has been found. It's all different now. But I do think Sunday's game could determine the AFC West winner.
Q: It's almost like Josh McDaniels is a rookie pitcher in MLB that dominates the first few games before the rest of the league gets wise and watches enough film on him. Is he still going to be a really special coach or were those first six games flukier than people think?
-- Graig (Dayton, Ohio)
A: Graig, I still believe McDaniels is going to be a special coach. I've said that all along, and I don't think any differently now. I keep going back to what one person who knows a whole bunch of coaches told me. He predicted McDaniels will be the best of any coach he ever knew -- and there are a lot. So if he's right -- and I'd bet he is -- McDaniels will be a star.
Q: Do you expect Knowshon Moreno to hit the dreaded "rookie wall" in the next week or so? I was hoping he'd get me to the fantasy playoffs this season, but I'm nervous. Even Adrian Peterson slowed down in the second half of his rookie year.
--Scott (Charlotte)
A: Scott: I think one reason Denver has struggled lately is that it hasn't run the ball as effectively or as much. But if Denver is going to get back to its winning ways, Moreno is going to have to take you AND the Broncos to the playoffs. So if the Broncos go to the playoffs, I'd guess you do too. If they don't, you won't, either.
Q: Do you think Kyle Orton will go this Sunday? If not, will Chris Simms be an adequate replacement? He hasn't exactly had a lot of game experience recently.
-- Paul (Denver)
A: Paul: Here's what I know: Orton didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday. He wants to play Sunday, but I think we're guessing whether he could at this point, nothing more. If Orton does play, he is going to be hobbled, slowed, not the same. But that still might be preferable to the alternative. Would love to tell you that Orton is or isn't playing -- just can't. Don't think anyone short of maybe McDaniels honestly can.
Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers, Kyle Orton, Chris Simms
Harvin has star, No. 1 wideout potential
Thursday, November 19, 2009 | Print Entry
Adam Schefter answers readers' questions nearly every day in his blog. Thursday, he's turning his attention towards questions about NFL offenses. Have a query of your own? Submit it here.
Q: Percy Harvin is my pick for offensive ROY this season. He was all over the place at Florida and has showed a lot of that versatility this year with the Vikings. How do you see the rest of his career panning out? Will he ever be a No. 1 receiver or will he stay in that jack-of-all-trades role?
-- Seth (Tallahassee, Fla.)
A: Good question, Seth, and I don't know the answer just yet. What I would tell you is that Harvin is going to be a star for years to come. Anyone who makes the type of impact that Harvin already has as a rookie is destined for great things as long as he keeps working hard and remains focused. If he does that, I'd bet he can be a No. 1 receiver.
Q: The Wildcat made headlines last season but seems to have dropped off a bit this year everywhere but in Miami. Why is it that the Dolphins seem to be the only team capable of running that formation on a consistent basis? Is it a personnel issue, or just a matter of them committing to it like no other team has?
-- Chris L. (Reno)
A: You hit on both the key issues, Chris. Miami has the right personnel and it is committed to it -- and don't forget Dolphins quarterbacks coach David Lee, who worked with the Wildcat at Arkansas and brought it with him to Miami. Lots of reasons -- but let's now see how it goes without Ronnie Brown as its quarterback.
Q: I agree that teams with top QBs are the most likely to be set for the next five years. But you mentioned the "deep" 2010 draft without remarking that this projects to be a TERRIBLE quarterback draft. All the top prospects are spread offense guys or have questions about body type, arm strength, reading defenses. This will likely be a bust draft for QB, so I can't see any of the "bad" teams with heavy top-round selections filling their QB gap. Do you hear anything different from scouts/GMs?
-- Greg (Cleveland)
A: Greg: I've heard various people who are high on Washington's Jake Locker and Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen, and also positive things about Texas' Colt McCoy and Florida's Tim Tebow. Then there's still Sam Bradford, who has questions about his shoulder but not his talent. Don't think it's entirely bereft of quarterback talent, not at all. But it just might not be Eli Manning-Philip Rivers-Ben Roethlisberger, that's all.
Q: The old adage says you need a strong running game and a staunch defense if you expect to win in the NFL, but the Colts, Saints and Patriots' first move is usually to try and blow teams out through the air (and their point differentials are all more than +100). Is that bit of conventional wisdom becoming outdated?
-- Morgan (Baltimore)
A: Think so, Morgan. More and more this is becoming a passing league. The top teams in the league all have great passing offenses. And I go back to the comments that Rex Grossman's father, Dan, an ophthalmologist who practices in Bloomington, Ind., gave this week to the Chicago Tribune -- and he was dead on:
"I believe that the NFL is a passing league," Dan Grossman said. "It has been for the last 20 years. Chicago continues to use the phrase, at least Lovie Smith continues to use the phrase, 'We get off the bus running.' I think they need to abandon that concept. Running is obviously a very important part of the offense. But the best teams in this league are prolific passing teams. And they have been for years. You can't name me a really great team in the last 10-20 years that hasn't had a passing component that was a very important part of it. And for a team to be effective at passing, you have to build your offense around your quarterback. You have to commit to the quarterback: 'You're our guy.' And then you have to build the offense around the quarterback. Not the other way around. You don't bring your quarterback in and say: 'We're going to get off the bus running. But on third-and-10, you've got to come through for us now!'"
Q: The Eagles offense has looked like the best in the NFL at times -- like no defense could ever stop them. Other times, they look like the Browns. And sometimes they seem to do great (like in the game
against the Chargers: McNabb 450 YDS) but still can't do enough for a win. Some say the O-line is the problem, but McNabb was barely touched by SD and they still lost. Some say the run and short yard situations are the issue, but the Eagles have always been pass heavy and terrible in short yard situations. Now we have people saying the problem is the coaches' play calling. What do you think is the real problem with the Eagles offense?
-- Ted (Philadelphia)
A: Ted: That is more complex than Dostoevsky. Wow, I don't even know where to begin. More important, neither do the Eagles. To me, it starts up front. The Eagles offensive line already has given up 22 sacks, two more than it did all of last season. If there's a problem up front, usually there's a problem that shows up elsewhere in the offense. But if I had an absolute answer, I'd be working for the Eagles, not ESPN.
Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Percy Harvin
In praise of Steelers D-coordinator Dick LeBeau
Wednesday, November 18, 2009 | Print Entry
Adam Schefter answers readers' questions nearly every day in his blog. Wednesday, he's turning his attention towards NFL defenses. Have a query of your own? Submit it here.
Q: Is Dick LeBeau really the defensive genius everyone makes him out to be? I feel like I could coach the Steelers D and be successful.
--Cenzo (New York)
A: With all due respect, Cenzo, you couldn't. Now I don't know your background, I don't know your pedigree and I don't know your football knowledge, but you just disrespected one of the most respected figures in the game, a coach whose players would kill for. It's not just what LeBeau knows, which is plenty. It's how he handles his players, which is a major component of coaching. Dick LeBeau is one of the wisest minds and greatest defensive coordinators in NFL history. He's going to go into the Pro Football Hall of Fame for what he accomplished as a player and as a coach. But that's interesting that you think you could coach the Steelers D and get the same results. Maybe there's an NFL owner out there who is an ESPN Insider, reads this mailbag and gives you the opportunity. Please let me know when that happens and we'll do a gigantic writeup, Cenzo.
Q: If Peyton Manning and Drew Brees were lost for the season with injuries, their teams would be absolutely devastated. Is there a defensive player in the league who could be put in that same category? To put it another way, if you were drafting a defense, who's your first pick?
--Zack (Wilkesboro, N.C.)
A: Zack: Neither team, Indianapolis nor New Orleans, could withstand the loss of its quarterback. Both teams might be able to win some games, but neither would be viewed as the elite team it is today. And there are valuable defensive players out there, plenty of them: Jared Allen, Dwight Freeney, Darren Sharper, Elvis Dumervil, Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Troy Polamalu. But each of those teams can win without those players. They wouldn't win as much, but they would still be winners. Point is, there's no replacing a franchise quarterback.
Q: Elvis Dumervil picked a hell of a year to break out. How much do you think it will take to keep him in Denver? Could he get Richard Seymour-like money in a long term deal or is he going to have to deal with a franchise tag? He's only 25, so I'd think it would make sense to lock him up for a few years.
--Mike (Conifer, Colo.)
A: Mike: Pass rushers command premium prices. Now keep in mind, in an uncapped year that everyone is expecting, Dumervil would be a restricted free agent, not an unrestricted free agent. Still, Denver could tender him at the highest level or slap its franchise tag on him. Whatever Denver decides, Dumervil isn't going anywhere. And he will get paid big bucks for a long-term contract at some point -- it's just not automatic that it will happen after this season due to the circumstances surrounding it.
Q: I'm kind of amazed Troy Polamalu hasn't had major injury troubles in the past considering how he plays the game. (Bob Sanders, for example, plays with a similar style and hasn't been nearly as lucky.) Everyone knows football is a brutal sport, but is there ever any concern among coaches and front office types about guys like that putting too much on the line on every down? Could you ever see a situation where it would cost a guy money as a free agent?
--Anthony (Norman, Okla.)
A: It's the way they play the game, Anthony, that makes each of those players so great -- they're all out, all the time. And Polamalu and Sanders each cashed in already with his respective team, deservedly so. Now if those deals were up today, would they get the same money? Maybe not. But they are valuable players and have been paid accordingly.
Q: Almost everyone is killing Bill Belichick for going for it on fourth down this week against the Colts. But shouldn't the harshest criticism come from the Patriots' D? Talk about not trusting your guys to get the job done. Something tells me he wouldn't have done that a few years ago when the Pats D was at its peak, even if Peyton Manning's on the other side of the ball.
--Eric (Springfield, Ma.)
A: Disagree, Eric. Bill Belichick thinks through these decisions in advance and goes with what he believes in, what gives a team the best chance to win. It wasn't him distrusting his defense so much as it was him respecting Peyton Manning. And I don't blame him. I never would want to give the ball back to Peyton Manning if I didn't have to, not when he would have four downs -- not three -- to try to drive the field to score a touchdown. That's me. Know I'm in the minority, but I liked Belichick's call.
Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, Elvis Dumervil, Troy Polamalu, Peyton Manning
Cincy gamble on Johnson akin to that on Benson
Tuesday, November 17, 2009 | Print Entry
Adam Schefter answers readers' questions nearly every day in his blog. Tuesday, he's addressing the Cincinnati Bengals, who sources are saying are about to acquire controversial RB Larry Johnson. Have a query of your own? Submit it here.
Q: Any idea how long Cedric Benson will be out, if at all? He's been such a pleasant surprise this season and it would be a huge blow if he misses significant time. Is that injury part of the reason why Cincinnati's going after Larry Johnson, or was that in the cards all along?
-- Bart (Lexington Ky.)
A: Bart: It was in the cards the past few days, before Benson got hurt. Remember, the Bengals were the team that gave Benson a chance when no other team would -- and look how that turned out. So now they are giving Larry Johnson a chance, and he knows that there is no margin for error. One negative tweet, one outlandish comment and he's gone. As for Benson, the Bengals think he can play this week with his strained hip flexor. But Cincinnati's next three games are at Oakland, home versus Cleveland, home versus Detroit. If ever there were a time to rest him, this would be it.
Q: I love Chad Ochocinco. To me, he's a constant reminder that football should be a game first and a profession second. Why does the league feel the need to suppress personalities like his? My mom, who never watches sports, knew about the "bribe" he tried to give the referee and thought it was funny. How could that possibly be a bad thing?
-- Alice (Dallas)
A: Alice: No player in football is more fun than my Twitter pen pal, Ochocinco. Love the guy. He's talented and entertaining on and off the field. The problem with the dollar bill was not so much the act, but what he said after. He used the word "bribe," and the league does not like anyone bringing up such a word, particularly in this day and age of Tim Donaghy. Any time that happens, there's going to be trouble. And trouble found Ocho. But that doesn't change the fact that he's the most fun player in the game today.
Q: Marvin Lewis finally seems to be delivering the quality defense he was brought in to develop and the offense, especially the running game, is off life support. But the Bengals have to be one of the most volatile teams in terms of success, or lack thereof, year-to-year. Is there anything you've seen in this team that suggests they can keep this year's play up for the next few years? Or will we be talking about how hot Lewis' seat is this time next year?
-- Kelley (Washington, D.C.)
A: The biggest issue facing this team into next season, Kelley, is the future of its defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. Not many realize it, but Zimmer's contract is up after this season. He's a free agent. After the trying and tragic year he's had, who could blame him if he wanted to start over away from Cincinnati and closer to his two daughters in Texas? Guy's a star coach and it would be great if the Bengals could convince him to stay. Just don't sense that it will be easy. And if Zimmer is gone next year, it would be a blow to the team.
Q: Where do you rank Carson Palmer as a QB right now? At his peak, he was probably No. 3 behind Manning and Brady but I think he's slipped considerably down that list after those major injuries.
-- Troy (Los Angeles)
A: Troy: Quarterbacks, to me, should be ranked in tiers these days. In the top tier are Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, by themselves. In the next tier are Brett Favre, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning and Kurt Warner. Eventually the young QBs, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, will make their way on to that list. And that list changes by the month. But that's my list for now -- and I'm sticking to it. And yes, Carson is a top-10 quarterback.
Q: Ochocinco and Laveranues Coles are both over 30. How much longer can they compete at a high level? I thought Chris Henry would be next in line -- and this was supposed to be his breakout year -- but he hasn't convinced me he'll be an elite receiver and Andre Caldwell is still very much a work in progress. Would the Bengals go after another WR in free agency in the next year or so, especially with Ochocinco's ever-present contract issues, or do they have greater needs elsewhere?
-- Jaime (Mason, Ohio)
A: It's a need, Jaime, but I wouldn't say it's a priority. Teams' needs change from month to month, and even more, from season to season. Cincinnati could use another receiver, but there are and will be more glaring needs. It wouldn't hurt to find another safety. Maybe another offensive lineman. Another defensive lineman never hurts. And of course, wide receiver. Don't know that it's the Bengals top offseason priority, but it'll be addressed.
Cincinnati Bengals, Cedric Benson, Chad Ocho Cinco, Carson Palmer, Laveranues Coles, Chris Henry, Andre Caldwell
Bears to miss out on best of 2010 draft
Monday, November 16, 2009 | Print Entry
Adam Schefter answers readers' questions nearly every day in his blog. Have a query of your own? Submit it here.
Q: I am really concerned about the state of the Chicago Bears not just now but also for the next several years. You win the game in trenches, yet their O- and D-lines are mediocre thanks to Jerry Angelo, who has neglected drafting O-line for years. Instead, he gives away draft picks for mediocre players and drafts players who can't even contribute and sit on the bench instead. I always felt that the way their ownership has done business is being reflected in the product on the field right now. Lovie Smith and Jerry Angelo are just average football people. Please give your honest assessment of this franchise good or bad.
--Steven (Yokosuka, Japan)
A: Here's what concerns me, Steven: No. 1, Jay Cutler looks as if he has any number of issues to work through, as a player and a person. He's good enough and young enough that he certainly can. But there's a lot of work to be done there. Also, not only did the Bears give up a first-round pick in the upcoming draft for Cutler, in what will be one of the best drafts in years, they also gave up their second-round pick for defensive end Gaines Adams. Now, in this great draft, the Bears are not scheduled to pick until Round 3. And when the offensive line is as weak as you and others say, and there is no big wide receiver to get the football to, there are some questions about how long it might take the Bears to improve.
Q: Hey Adam, I know it's sort of early to ask this question, but who do you think will be the NFC wild-card teams? We have seen the Giants on the decline (I'm a huge fan but I'm having doubts), the Falcons dropped three of their past four (with the win coming against the Redskins) and the Packers can't give Aaron Rodgers time to get rid of the ball.
--Tom (Mountainside, N.J.)
A: Tom: The answer to this question would be different on a week to week basis. Saying that, I do think the Falcons will rally for one of the wild-card spots and the other could come out of the NFC East. I could see any one of the three top NFC East teams winning the division, though fans in Philadelphia and New York might argue otherwise right now. But whoever doesn't win it has the chance to get a wild-card spot.
Q: G'day from Sydney, Australia, Adam! Love your work. It seems as if Reggie Bush may have to renegotiate or get cut this offseason due to his huge cap hit in 2010. My question is if the 2009 Bush is as good as he is gonna get in the NFL -- a dangerous multitasker who always needs to be accounted for by defenses, an occasional game breaker but not a truly dominant player nor a lone back or a franchise talent -- what do you think his value will/should be? And secondly, how do you think it will play out between him and New Orleans?
--Nick Williams (Sydney, Australia)
A: Great questions from Down Under, Nick, thank you for them. Reggie Bush has a super large cap number next year, more than $8 million I believe. It's a big number, but also keep in mind, there's a very good chance there won't be any salary cap next season. And here's the question you have to ask: If the Saints do not want to carry that number, how much would Reggie Bush be worth to some team on the open market? And I would say, quite a bit. Maybe not $8 million, but certainly a hefty number in this day and age. Some offenses could make great use of him. Going to be an interesting situation, especially if the Saints go deep into the playoffs.
Q: How much of the Browns' troubles can be blamed on Eric Mangini? If he and Josh McDaniels switched jobs, would anything be different? I'm not convinced the Browns were any better off at the end of last season than the Broncos.
--Devin (Boston)
A: Devin: The results speak for themselves. The Browns' record is not good, their performance is not good and the players are mostly unhappy. Publicly, they'll say the right things. Privately, there are some disconcerting things being said. Two seasons ago, Cleveland was in good shape. And I think the organization would have been better off sticking with Romeo Crennel and Phil Savage. But the Browns got what they wanted -- and hopefully for the sake of the fans and the league, it gets turned around soon. But I'm not optimistic.
Q: What's happened to the Jets? They've really run the gamut this season from beating the Patriots to losing to the Jaguars, their fifth loss in six games. Mark Sanchez just seems to get worse every week, too. Do you think they've really fallen off and stopped playing to their potential or were they never the team their initial 3-0 record made us all believe they were?
--Jon (New York)
A: Jon: They were really good early on and beat some really good teams. I mean, victories at Houston? Over New England? Clearly there has to be some talent. The biggest issue to me has been the regression of Sanchez. Not sure what it is, but you hit it right -- he does look like he gets worse every week. That's problematic. But let's also keep in mind that he's a rookie quarterback and he hasn't been nearly as bad as some other rookie quarterbacks. Still, the Jets are going to have to get more out of Sanchez for him to be the quarterback they need him to be and for them to be the franchise they want to be. Still a solid team, still on pace for what everyone thought they would do, but now in a dry stretch.
Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Jay Cutler, Gaines Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Reggie Bush II, Mark Sanchez
Brady and Manning set to break the bank
Sunday, November 15, 2009 | Print Entry
Five days a week, Adam Schefter answers readers' questions in his blog. Have a query of your own? Submit it here.
From now through the end of their careers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will be compared. This season, each has thrown 16 touchdown passes. This season, each has thrown five interceptions. And after this season, each will have one year remaining on his contract.
After Sunday night's game in Indianapolis, the next time these two quarterbacks are compared could be when they sign what are expected to be the two richest contracts in NFL history. Most NFL executives believe Manning's and Brady's contracts will be blockbusters, averaging anywhere from $17-20 million per season. This past summer, Giants quarterback Eli Manning became the highest-paid player in NFL history when he signed a seven-year, $106.9 million extension. Peyton Manning and Brady are both expected to top Manning's deal and his average salary of $16.25 million a year.
Manning is in constant contact with the Colts while Brady does the same with the Patriots, but neither quarterback seems far into his negotiations. Those talks are expected to heat up during the offseason in what will be an uncertain financial time with the possibility of an uncapped year in 2010.
Wide-open market
The fact that Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson is switching agents and hiring Rosenhaus Sports to represent him is yet another sure sign he would like a new contract during the offseason. No big surprise there. No position this offseason will draw the headlines and attention that wide receiver will.
Check out the list of wide receivers who are in the last year of their contracts: San Diego's Vincent Jackson, Denver's Brandon Marshall, Dallas' Miles Austin, Buffalo's Terrell Owens, the New York Jets' Braylon Edwards and Tampa Bay's Antonio Bryant.
Receivers whose deals will be up after the 2010 season include Arizona's Anquan Boldin, New England's Randy Moss, Pittsburgh's Santonio Holmes, the New York Giants' Steve Smith, Jacksonville's Mike Sims-Walker and Minnesota's Sidney Rice.
No other position in the league has as much talent that will be in play. There will be high-level discussions of deals at all levels, whether in the form of trades or contract extensions. In the past, Denver has explored trading Marshall and Arizona has debated dealing Boldin, and trade discussions likely will be held during the offseason. It should make for explosive and tumultuous stuff.
But first, there will be a showdown of sorts Sunday when the two Jacksons -- DeSean and Vincent -- square off in a battle of two of football's top young wide receivers.
Market influence
For all the news that wide receivers are expected to make, the collective bargaining agreement talks also will influence what happens.
If 2010 is an uncapped year, as most expect, the pool of unrestricted free agent wide receivers will be reduced greatly. The top UFA wide receivers would be Tampa Bay's Bryant, Houston's Kevin Walter and Seattle's Nate Burleson. The other wide receivers would be restricted free agents and would have limitations on where they could go and how much money they could make.
After hiring a new agent this past week, Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson faces assorted obstacles before landing a new deal. For starters, the collective bargaining agreement bans players from signing contract extensions until the day after they have played two seasons. For Jackson, that will be in March 2010. Then, the NFL could be headed toward an uncapped year in which a player would have to play six seasons instead of four before becoming an unrestricted free agent. In this case, Jackson would be four seasons from full-fledged free agency. And lastly, the Eagles are one of the shrewdest teams in the league. It will not be easy for Jackson to get what he wants. But then, that's why he hired agent Drew Rosenhaus.
Quinn's quest for snaps
Teams are no different from stockbrokers. They try to buy low and sell high.
Cleveland had a chance to do that this past offseason when it debated dealing quarterback Brady Quinn to the Denver Broncos for a first-day draft choice, according to multiple NFL sources. Ultimately, the Browns balked, partly because they were unwilling to give up Quinn and partly because they didn't want to have to use another high draft pick on a quarterback.
Thus, no deal.
Now, as Quinn prepares for Monday night's start at Baltimore, he will try to restore his reputation and rebuild his value, which has dropped dramatically since he was benched during his third NFL start this season. Fortunately for the Browns, Quinn still has half a season to prove he can be a better quarterback than he was earlier this season. But it could be difficult for Cleveland to recoup the offer for Quinn that Denver had put on the table this past offseason.
Cleveland coach Eric Mangini told CBSSports.com last week that he was unaware of the specific incentives in Quinn's contract. But the specifics cast questions about what the Browns knew. Quinn has $5 million worth of incentives for this season and another $5.95 million for next season based on his playing 70 percent of the Browns' plays this season.
During Cleveland's first three games this season, Quinn played 137 plays. Then, just before Cleveland's bye week, when he got in the game at the end, he played three more. Altogether, Quinn has played 140 of the team's 463 offensive plays of the 2009 season.
On average, a team runs 60 offensive plays per game, sometimes a few more, sometimes a few less. Using that reliable number, Cleveland should run 960 offensive plays this season. Seventy percent of 960 is 672 snaps.
But even if Quinn takes every snap in the Browns' final eight games, that would give him 480 snaps for the rest of the season to go with his previous 140 -- 620 altogether and 52 short of the snaps he needs to hit 70 percent playing time and $10.95 million worth of incentives. The 52 snaps short are the equivalent of one start. So had Quinn started one more game, he would have been in play to earn an additional $5 million in incentives this season and $5.95 million next season. Now, Quinn still could play 70 percent next season and earn $5.95 million in incentives then. But he lost the $5 million in incentives he could have earned this season and also lost the chance to clinch the $5.95 million for next season as well.
Mangini might not have known about those clauses and numbers. But as one NFL executive pointed out, Mangini stuck with Derek Anderson longer than he did Quinn, and Anderson was just as bad as if not worse than Quinn.
Notables
• When D.C.-area sniper John Allen Muhammad was executed this past week, it brought a sense of closure for Saints safety Roman Harper.
Back in 2002, Muhammad and his accomplice Lee Boyd Malvo shot and killed Harper's aunt Claudine Parker at a Washington-area convenience store.
Harper was playing at the University of Alabama at the time and would write his aunt's name on his left wrist for inspiration. Harper's family hasn't forgotten, either. This week, his mother and uncle traveled to Washington to watch Muhammad's execution. Now it's behind them, and Harper can focus on Sunday's game versus the Rams.
• Do not underestimate the importance of good health on the Cowboys' good start.
Heading into Sunday's game at Green Bay, the Cowboys are as healthy as they've been at any point this season. While other teams are nursing notable injuries, Dallas isn't.
In fact, this season, Dallas' regular starters have missed only three games thanks to injury -- wide receiver Roy Williams, running back Marion Barber and safety Gerald Sensabaugh have missed one apiece.
All five of Dallas' regular offensive linemen have started every game this season, a key factor in the team's success, according to team officials. Right now, the Cowboys are the antithesis of the Packers. They're healthy and confident, and they have momentum.
• Get ready for the Cowboys to continue Wildcatting -- or as they like to say, the "Razorback" offense, as team owner Jerry Jones attended Arkansas.
On Sunday night at Philadelphia, the Cowboys used the Wildcat/Razorback formation at least three times for the first time this season. It always was the same play -- Cowboys running back Tashard Choice lining up as the Wildcat quarterback behind an unbalanced line and running left behind Leonard Davis.
The Cowboys had attempted to use the Wildcat in the past, but never with any success. Penalties or blown assignments always took them out of it, and they never attempted to use it more than once in a game. But now Cowboys offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is busy coming up with new wrinkles to tack on to the one play his team used so successfully on Sunday. And don't forget this little factoid: When Arkansas ran the Wildcat offense, the man often at the helm was running back Felix Jones, who's now with the Cowboys. The Cowboys recently took Jones off the kick-return team so he and Choice could provide two weapons. Dallas also added looks it hasn't had recently. The Cowboys could use more of the Wildcat on Sunday at Green Bay and will use more of it as they make their stretch run toward the postseason.
• These are not your father's Bengals. They are trying to sweep the season series versus Pittsburgh for the first time since 1998. And with a win Sunday, the Bengals would sweep the season series from the Steelers and the Ravens and set themselves up to put away the AFC North. Cincinnati's next three games are at Oakland, then home for Detroit and Cleveland. And keep in mind: The Bengals have won four straight road games dating back to last season.
• Put away the earmuffs. Leave the heavy coats at home. Toss out the winter gloves.
If football season were to end today, the NFC playoffs would be played entirely indoors.
For the first time ever.
Dallas and Arizona would host wild-card games in their stadiums, New Orleans and Minnesota would host divisional-round playoff games in their domes and weather would have as much of a factor this postseason as the Cleveland Browns or Oakland Raiders.
The effect: Teams that run the ball well would not have an advantage and teams that pass the ball would not have to worry about any disadvantage from adverse weather conditions. Because now, even the most challenged weathermen could come up with this postseason forecast: NFC playoff games will be played in 68 degrees with 1 mph winds and no chance of snow or rain.
This postseason, any Ice Bowl is set to be a De-Ice Bowl.
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Sifting through the NFL ashes
Friday, November 13, 2009 | Print Entry
Adam Schefter answers readers' questions nearly every day in his blog. On Friday, he's hitting the growing pile of questions asking, "Where did it all go wrong?" with Terrell Owens, the Giants, the Redskins, the Raiders, the Seahawks and much more. Have a query of your own? Submit it here.
Q: Clearly the Terrell Owems pickup hasn't blown the doors off the AFC East, and maybe I'm sympathetic, but I don't put it all on T.O.. Am I wrong? I watch the guy and I still don't see a player in decline. Any chance we get another year out of him?
-- Tom (Niagara Falls, NY)
A: It's not on T.O., Tom. He has been the least of the Bills problems this season. The offensive line -- no surprise -- has been a bigger issue. The play of the quarterbacks -- no surprise -- has been a bigger issue. T.O. is not the issue. Now he certainly could have helped them more, holding on to some passes. But Buffalo's issues go beyond T.O. Another year? Hard to say.
Q: Myself included, I didn't hear many people complaining about what we (the 'Skins) spent on Albert Haynesworth, but he has 3 sacks, and, well. I'll skip the obvious. You think this is finally the free agent straw that breaks the camels back, and Washington will finally start valuing the draft?
-- Rich (Richmond, Virg.)
A: Rich: Albert has been good, not great. He has performed, but not to the richest defensive contract in NFL history. But how he has done isn't expected to influence how the team uses the draft. The Redskins know that, if they're going to get where they want, it is going to have to come the way all great teams have built themselves -- through the draft.
Q: When you talk to front office and personnel folks, do you get the feeling that the Chiefs are happy they made the deal for Matt Cassel? What do you think their biggest priorities will be when their season ends (and it sort of already has).
-- Sarah (Wichita, Kan.)
A: Sarah: It's not unlike the Haynesworth answer. Cassel has been decent but the Chiefs are paying him to be great. But give him some time. The coaching staff was overhauled. The roster is being overhauled. It's not simple to step in and turn a bad team into a good one. Cassel might not be good enough to carry a whole team by himself. But surrounded by solid talent, I believe he's more than good enough to win with. It just is going to take some time.
Q: Do you think now that Matt Hasselback got too much credit for the Seattle surge of recent years? That offensive line has fallen apart and the guy doesn't look close to his former self. You mentioned in the mailbag [yesterday] this team has two picks in the first round. Gotta be a quarterback, right?
-- Mike (Tacoma, Wash.)
A: Mike: I believe Hasselbeck didn't get enough credit when they were good. He was one of football's more underrated quarterbacks. But Seattle's decline started when it approached the Steve Hutchinson contract situation the wrong way. Since then, the offensive line and team has struggled. Fortunately for Seattle, it does have two No. 1's. And yes, I do expect one of those picks to be used on a quarterback. How popular would the pick be if Seattle drafted Washington quarterback Jake Locker?
Q: I think I'm seeing the NFL version of an insane streak-shooter when I watch the Giants. Eli Manning is like John Starks or Reggie Miller, where if he's on fire, you're going to win, but when he's off, he can't stop shooting (throwing) because he knows his streak is in there somewhere. My thing is: is that your franchise guy? I know I'm a venting Giants fan, but even an objective person can see how nuts Eli can drive a fan. What IS it about him? Is it his head, or do we just expect a Manning, and he's not Peyton?
-- Denard (Brooklyn)
A: Denard, breathe deep. Relax. When the Giants won five in a row, Manning was worth the money the team paid him. When they lost four in a row, he wasn't. But let's not underestimate his foot injury. I think it's one of these situations where, in training camp next summer, we'll hear how much Eli's foot bothered him this year. I believe it's a lot worse than he or the team is letting on. But I'll ask you this: Was Eli good enough to take the Giants to and through the playoffs two seasons ago? That should reveal something.
Q: Alright, fair enough to start asking a reporter his odds on Cable AND Russell being by the Bay next year? I mean, you don't have to play a pundit to wonder about how ugly this could get. We're terrrrrible.
-- Tonya (San Jose, Cal.)
A: Tonya: I'm not an oddsmaker but if I were, I'd say Cable is even money not to be back and Russell is 2-1. Would be surprising if Cable were back after all he has been through this season, which is unfortunate for him. Russell has the admiration of Al Davis, so that would be a wager you might want to take. I actually think one of those two will return -- and I like the QB's chances way more.
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The franchise of the next five years
Thursday, November 12, 2009 | Print Entry
Adam Schefter answers readers' questions nearly every day in his blog. On Thursday, he's hitting the growing pile in the bag eyeing the looming showdown between the Colts and the Patriots. Have a query of your own? Submit it here.
Q: What franchise is best set up for the next five years, in terms of personnel? I'm tempted to say New England, with their second round picks piled up, but Indy, Pittsburgh Atlanta -- maybe even the Jets look solid.
-- Katie (Newport, RI)
A: It's always about the quarterbacks, Katie, always. Any team with a good, proven young quarterback is set up for the next 10 years. To me, those teams would be Pittsburgh, San Diego, the New York Giants, Atlanta, and Baltimore. Beyond that, you always can count on New England and Indianapolis as long as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are playing. And if you want a short-term answer to a team without a quarterback, I'd say San Francisco and Seattle -- each has two first-round picks in April in what is expected to be one of the best drafts in years. San Francisco has Carolina's first-round pick, Seattle has Denver's. If those teams can come away with a quality quarterback, they'll be setting up themselves for a long time.
Q: It's nutty that Manning and Brady both have 16 TDs and 5 INTs this year. These guys have always been considered so ying and yang high pick, low pick, hick, playboy -- but, the more you watch, they play similarly. I was watching the Colts game and a friend said, "Only Manning looks like that." And I was thinking, Brady's the same way. Maybe it's just because I'm not a huge fan of either team...?
-- Dylan (Harrisburg, Penn.)
A: Dylan: What you're seeing is flat-out greatness. Before they're through, I think Manning and Brady will go down as the two greatest quarterbacks to play the game. Certainly others will be in the argument. But these quarterbacks played in an era where the passing games exploded, and they're both so smart, so cerebral, so dedicated, so everything. I think we're looking at this generation's Montana-Elway-Marino -- only better.
Q: Do you remember an in-house transition as smooth as Dungy to Caldwell? Shouldn't this be the standard procedure when a great coach walks away; it breeds continuity?
-- Chase (Chicago)
A: Chase: Jim Caldwell has done a superb job, as has defensive coordinator Larry Coyer -- and there will be more about this topic in my weekly Friday 10 Spot column. But it's also a whole lot easier to transition over when No. 18 plays quarterback.
Q: I know great coaches for typically good teams get the shaft, but if you had to vote for a Coach of the Year, what about Belichick? We're second in scoring defense and, Week 1, you'd think this year we'd be hoping to beat teams 35-34 all year.
-- Carter (NYC)
A: Carter: Belichick has gotten overlooked as a coach of the year just like Brady has gotten overlooked as an MVP. The reason is because they both have been so good for so long that everyone has come to expect it. It's no surprise. The Bengals and Marvin Lewis are a surprise. The Broncos and Josh McDaniels are a surprise. The Saints and Sean Payton are a surprise. Is anyone surprised about Belichick and Brady? They're guilty of their own success.
Q: I'm concerned because the Colts don't have much of a rushing game at all. Addai only has 399 yards. Then again, I see Stephen Jackson and Chris Johnson are two of the top three. Tell me this is an overblown fear.
-- Kurt (Indianapolis)
A: Kurt. Way overblown. For starters, I like Joseph Addai. He has gotten better and better this season. Plus, the Colts invested a first-round pick on Donald Brown and he's on the verge of coming back from a shoulder injury. And the Colts are not, and won't ever be with No. 18, a running offense. They have all the running backs they need to win a world championship. Indianapolis' issue is not its running backs; if I were you, I'd worry more about the defensive backs with all the injuries the Colts have suffered there recently.
Q: Worst division in the AFC, East or South? (Didn't think we'd run into that, huh?)
-- Jared (Tampa)
A: Comparable, Jared, and I don't mean to ride the fence on you. When you're assessing the worst, you go from the bottom up. Who's worse, Buffalo or Tennessee? I think Buffalo. Who's worse, the Jets or the Jaguars? I think the Jaguars, though that will be settled this weekend. Who's worse the Texans or the Dolphins? Pretty close. And the Colts and the Patriots are similar. So as you can see, so are the divisions.
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The most vulnerable second half teams
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 | Print Entry
Adam Schefter answers readers' questions nearly every day in his blog. On Thursday, he's hitting the growing pile in the bag eyeing the looming showdown between the Colts and the Patriots. Have a query of your own? Submit it here.
Q: This season has always had the "looming coaches" subplot because of all the big names out there, but because there are a number of them, do you think it calms the idea that owners might be in a hurry to fire a coach so they can, say, get dibs on a Bill Cowher or Mike Shanahan? I mean, some franchises would be happy with any new guy.
-- Dave (DC)
A: Nope, Dave. Teams are going to act when the time is right and when they feel they can get their guy. The fact that there are more high-profile coaches out there doesn't make owners more apt to wait. When they're ready to act, they're going to act.
Q: When you discuss it with personnel folks, do you feel like there's any consensus at all anymore on what it really takes to turn around a franchise in terms of years? I know impatience overrides the statistics, but over and over a coach gets the boot after a couple years, and every one of them starts, backed by an owner who talks about a 3- and 4-year process. A case study you'd point to?
-- Chip (El Paso, Tex.)
A: Chip: There are a few ways of turning around a franchise, and none is surefire. The most effective and longest lasting is drafting the right quarterback. The Falcons, Ravens, Steelers and Chargers will be competitive for the next decade based on one simply complex draft pick. Then there's the Bill Parcells way, in which an executive is so good and has such a proven formula that his plan can turn around a franchise over time. But there's no absolute answer, Chip. Every team and every year is different. But I will say this: Every time these teams that make constant coaching changes make another change, it sets back that franchise that much further.
Q: I know you're going to say my Broncos, but be it health or schedule, what division leaders look vulnerable to you going into the second half? There's always a couple.
-- Tim W. (Cheyenne, Wyo.)
A: Let's do it by process of elimination, Tim. Don't see anyone overtaking the Vikings or Saints, Patriots or Colts. But every other division is up for grabs, some more than others. The AFC North could be decided Sunday; the AFC West will be decided when Denver hosts San Diego on Nov. 22; the NFC East still is up for grabs; and Arizona hasn't put away the NFC West just yet. Take your pick of those teams as to which is most vulnerable. Any of them could be.
Q: I'm nervous as a Saints fan that Gregg Williams has done TOO good a job and will get a job elsewhere. But I wonder: He's been there before. Some guys are just suited to be coordinators. Have you talked to coaches who got the head coaching bug, maybe got fired, and were content with the DC or OC role? (And you can say Gregg!)
-- Melvin (Baton Rouge, Lou.)
A: Melvin: Most coaches, even former head coaches, want the opportunity to do it again. Williams is no different. He'd love another crack at a head-coaching job, and if the Saints can continue the type of success they're having, he might get it. But don't think like that. Root for the Saints and their defense to have the best possible season, and if they lose Williams, good for him. He's already on people's radar. Too late to have the defense slip a little and hide him.
Q: I read that the Wildcat looks easier to stop when teams just blitz guys out of the secondary, because, really, what RB is going to throw over the top? Miami has struggled lately. You see this thing getting bigger, or do you hear from people that the Wildcat (or whatever teams call their version) is growing?
-- Juan (Redondo Beach, Cali.)
A: Juan: For various reasons, no one has been able to run the scheme like Miami, even with its recent struggles. Don't know that it's going to get any more popular, but I don't think Miami is going away from it anytime soon. Nor should it. The Dolphins are a more dangerous team using the Wildcat. But just because it's right for them doesn't make it right for others.
Q: Halfway home, and sort of quietly, it feels like even the pundits (and I'm not screaming "East Coast bias!") feel like the Colts might be the premier franchise right now. And of course, I'm also referring to the Belichick in the room. You buy?
-- Eric (Fort Wayne, IN)
A:Eric: I'm going to guess that the fine folks of Pittsburgh might have a thing or two to say about that. As might the people in New England. Indianapolis is an incredibly well-run outfit, no questioning that. But I can't say the Colts are any more the model than Pittsburgh or New England, not right now. Check back the second Monday in February.
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Draft winners, ROY leaders, and more rookie talk
Tuesday, November 10, 2009 | Print Entry
Adam Schefter answers readers' questions nearly every day in his blog. On Tuesday, he's taking questions on the rookie class, who's shining and who isn't; he even passes out some early draft winners and losers. Have a query of your own? Submit it here.
Q: If you average his catches over a whole season, Michael Crabtree would be on pace for about 75 (based on my math). They've struggled, but so far, don't you think the Niners are happy? I mean, Crab can't play defense too.
--Darrius (Torrance, Calif.)
A: Very happy, Darrius. Anyone who has watched the Niners can see right away -- Crabtree is a player. A major player. It looks as though he's going to be a great one.
Q: I feel like there's such a pressure to draft a QB early, if you're a bad team with a bad QB. But if you look at rookie starters this year -- Stafford and Sanchez -- the numbers are equally terrible. Based on what Denver has done this year, or even Arizona did a couple years ago, finding a starter out of what many considered a cheap stopgap, do you think bad teams with bad QBs, like Oakland or Cleveland, would consider another route? This constant "franchise QB drafting" seems like a recipe for continued struggle, even as the kid grows up. Why not build a team, then find the arm?
--Marcus (Birmingham, Mich.)
A: Go back one year, Marcus. The Falcons drafted Matt Ryan, the Ravens Joe Flacco. Think those teams are happy? So all last year, everyone talked about how rookie quarterbacks can come in and make a difference. Now we see Stafford and Sanchez struggling some, having good and bad days, but not performing nearly as effectively as Ryan and Flacco. And the bottom line is, there is no right answer. It changes all the time. It doesn't depend on the year or the philosophy, it depends on the quarterback. Find a quarterback you believe in, be it in the draft or in free agency or in a trade. Make a move for him. And pray you're right. If you are, you'll look really smart. If not, people will pay for it with their jobs.
Q: I look at the first couple rounds of the spring draft, and I don't see a lot of impact. I know it's too early, so hedge it all you want, but how about NFL Draft winners? (Maybe offense and defense.)
--Verner (Oakland, Calif.)
A: It takes a few years to fully judge a draft, Verner, but to me, draft winners right now would be the St. Louis Rams, the New York Jets, the Cincinnati Bengals, the San Francisco 49ers, the Denver Broncos, the Houston Texans, the Minnesota Vikings, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Baltimore Ravens, the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have three rookies starting in their secondary, and all can play. The Vikings got Percy Harvin and Phil Loadholt. There are plenty of teams that did well in the draft. And the ones that did, and didn't, will become even more obvious over time.
Q: You spent a lot of time covering the combine, and the draft. When you talk to NFL personnel people, how advanced do you think their scouting is, at this point, for the draft. I mean, do they have a true "board" ready? I watch what Kiper, McShay and them do and you get a sense there really is some consensus, and early. Any good stories on a coach who knew his guy, like, way before the draft?
--David L. (Forest Park, Ill.)
A: Some teams are more advanced than others, David. But it's like anything else. The more teams put into it financially, emotionally and physically, the more they get out of it. Some teams are incredibly organized with their draft approach, very detailed, and very hard working. Others not as much. And usually it shows up draft day. But this is the job of college scouting departments right now, to figure out the best players. You'd be amazed at how much work goes into this. And they're doing it now -- and doing it well.
Q: I'm a Vikes fan so I know I'm living a charmed QB life right now, but I know they are also one hit away
I won't say it. Do you think we could be drafting a QB in the 2010 Draft? An apprenticeship under Favre worked for Aaron Rodgers, right?
--Trent (Duluth, Minn.)
A: Trent, why not relax and enjoy the best Vikings season since 1998? I understand and appreciate your concern, and I could see Minnesota doing just that, absolutely. But that's for another day. Right now you've got the best running back, the best defensive end and the most intriguing quarterback in football. Why not enjoy it.
Q: The Broncos are one of those teams that switched defenses (4-3 to 3-4), and I thought it would hurt us a lot more than it has. If you look at teams that have succeeded recently with switches, has it been more a personnel thing that made it work? Do you see any rhyme or reason for why it does?
--Sarah (Denver)
A: Sarah, teams need the right personnel to play the 3-4. It always baffled me when I heard about players such as Joey Porter and Aaron Smith being considered 3-4 players but not 4-3 players. You're telling me those players couldn't have succeeded in other systems? I find that hard to believe. Good football players are good football players -- period. These days, teams have had success going to the 3-4 for any number of reasons. Part of it is the coaching, part of it is the scheme, part of it is the personnel. But usually good coaching and good talent get it done.
Q: Early ROY prediction?
--Karl (Pullman, Wash.)
A: Well, Karl, there's an offensive rookie of the year and a defensive rookie of the year. Right now, I'll take Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin on offense and Texans linebacker Brian Cushing on defense. But there's a whole lot of season left.
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