ESPN Fantasy Baseball Blog

Posted by Tristan H. Cockcroft, ESPN.com

The Cubs' loss -- a result of cost-cutting -- represents the Indians' gain.

On Wednesday, the Indians acquired Mark DeRosa, a surprisingly underrated fantasy hitter, in exchange for three pitching prospects: Chris Archer, John Gaub and Jeff Stevens. None of the three is considered close to elite. The deal presents an interesting conundrum for the Indians: Who will play where in that infield?

Presumably, the Indians will go with an arrangement of DeRosa at second base, Asdrubal Cabrera at shortstop and Jhonny Peralta at third base. Such an arrangement would be smarter from a defensive perspective. That's all a credit to Cabrera's range; the guy can cover a ton of ground. Not that Peralta's range was poor, as he ranked fifth in range factor among qualified shortstops in the 2008 season, but shifting him to third with Cabrera at short is a stronger arrangement. Besides, Peralta has been playing third base in winter ball, a sign that the shift is coming.

For fantasy owners, the result of the DeRosa deal and the ensuing infield shuffle is increased positional flexibility for Peralta. Cabrera already carries second base and shortstop eligibility, while DeRosa qualifies at second base, third base and the outfield. Peralta should add third base to his list of eligible positions by the end of April, helping to boost his value, albeit slightly. It's something to keep in mind in the mid-to-late rounds, especially when making decisions between comparably valued players.

Be aware that DeRosa will turn 34 in February and is coming off a career year, one that ranked him sixth among second basemen on the 2008 Player Rater. Asking him to repeat a season in which he managed 21 home runs, 87 RBIs and 103 runs scored is a bit much because each of those totals is more than 15 percent higher than his next-best seasons in those categories. Also, DeRosa has batted .296, .293 and .285 the past three seasons, which are healthy numbers. But if you combine the seasons and then split them by home and road games, and you'll see DeRosa was a .304 hitter with an .844 OPS at home and .278/.796 on the road. Clearly, the ballparks in Texas and Chicago helped him offensively, and the shift to Cleveland's Progressive Field, a more neutral/slightly pitcher-friendly environment, will hurt.

Expect something more in the ballpark of a .280 batting average, 15 home runs and 70 RBIs for DeRosa, keeping him a top-10 candidate at second base accounting for his position flexibility. Still, at best, he's a mid-to-late-round pick.

Turning to the Cubs, rumor has it the DeRosa trade was designed to clear up some payroll to add a free agent. Milton Bradley is a popular name that has been tossed around. But all indications are that the Jake Peavy trade talks with San Diego remain dead.

At second base, Aaron Miles was brought in on a two-year, $4.9 million contract on Wednesday to battle Mike Fontenot for the job. A platoon of some sort -- Fontenot starting against most right-handers, Miles against all left-handers and select righties -- might be the result of their probable spring training battle. Unfortunately, neither player would amount to much for fantasy in that kind of arrangement. Fontenot, in fact, is the one whose value would suffer most. He'd have had a better chance at repeating his 2008 numbers if given the chance to play every day.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.

Posted by Tristan H. Cockcroft, ESPN.com

For Jose Arredondo, the "future" just got further away.

On Wednesday, three short weeks after losing Francisco Rodriguez to the Mets in free agency, the Angels decided upon K-Rod's replacement … and Arredondo, hailed for much of the 2008 season as the team's closer of the future, won't be the guy.

Instead, the Angels' 2009 closer shall be Brian Fuentes, who was signed to a two-year deal, according to ESPN's Buster Olney. Financial terms weren't announced, but based upon reports that he was seeking in the neighborhood of $10 million per year, Fuentes probably received something close to that number.

Assuming Fuentes received "closer's dollars" -- and yes, these days there is such a thing -- the full-time closer's gig likely will be his, barring injury or significant decline in performance. Arredondo, who managed 10 wins, a 1.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his debut season in 2008 after successfully converting to relief in the minor leagues, will presumably serve as Fuentes' top right-handed setup man.

Addressing the first risk factor with Fuentes, he's actually not much of an injury risk. He has made at least 64 appearances in each of the past four seasons while serving primarily as the Rockies' closer, only once landing on the disabled list, in 2007. Fuentes is also 33 years old, not far removed from his prime, and hadn't been abused in his Colorado days.

Addressing the second risk factor, Fuentes could be a candidate to begin declining soon, at age 33 and heading to the American League. But he did manage a career-best 1.10 WHIP in 2008 despite calling hitter-friendly Coors Field his home, and was scored upon in back-to-back games only four times in 67 appearances. The performance wasn't out of line with his 2005-07 numbers, either -- he had a 3.13 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in those three seasons combined -- which eliminates any concern of a contract-year-based fluke in 2008.

Not that Fuentes should be expected to repeat, or even come all that close to his predecessor's 2008 total of 62 saves. It was a special kind of year for K-Rod in 2008, whereas he had averaged 44 saves per season from 2005-07, a more realistic expectation for an elite closer. The Angels -- as things stand today -- might sport a similar team to last year's, pitching-rich but a bit thin on offense, so Fuentes stands a chance at topping his career best of 31 saves (set in 2005). To expect more than 40, though, would be foolish.

Call it a boost in Fuentes' value, a surprising development for a pitcher making the jump from the pitching-rich National League to the offensive-minded American League. Getting out of Coors does present some upside for the left-hander in both ERA and WHIP, and a 2.50-ERA, 1.00-WHIP, 40-save season is not out of the question. Fuentes finished ninth among closers on the 2008 Player Rater, and by all rights, he should at least match that in 2009. He'd be an ideal pick in the early/mid-rounds, say, the eighth to 10th rounds.

As for Arredondo, feel free to scratch him off your list of breakout candidates, shifting him to the "deep sleepers" list instead. He'd be a wise handcuff to Fuentes, and presents plenty of ERA/WHIP/K help to those of you who need it. Arredondo dominated left-handers (.418 OPS allowed) and was remarkably consistent from month to month, which are very promising signs for a young reliever. He might rank as one of the top setup relievers in 2009 -- keep that in mind, those of you who play in leagues that reward holds -- but his chances of saving even five games are no longer good.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.

Posted by Jason Grey

So the Red Sox didn't get Mark Teixeira. At least they got a couple of nice consolation prizes. Ok, obviously I'm reaching. They got a couple of low-cost options to fill some potential roster holes for next season, but can those players do the same for fantasy owners?

On the pitching side, the team inked Brad Penny to a one-year deal worth a reported $5 million, with additional incentives for up to $3 million. If healthy, Penny would be slotted in as the team's fifth starter behind Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, and Tim Wakefield.

However, the key phrase is "if healthy." A year after reaching the 200-inning mark for the first time in his career, Penny spent three separate stints on the disabled list with shoulder issues, appeared in just four games after mid-June, and even though he was able to pitch in 19 games, he clearly wasn't 100 percent for most of them. He didn't require surgery, but considering he has had shoulder and biceps issues in previous years, it's not a safe bet to count on him making 25-plus starts.

Even assuming Penny can take the ball for 180 innings, fantasy owners should note the three-year drop in strikeout rate (7.1 per nine, 5.8, and 4.9) and corresponding rise in walk rate (2.6, 3.2, 4.0). Granted, last season was injury-marred, but it doesn't change the fact the trends are headed in the wrong direction. If the injuries and peripheral stats aren't concerning enough, Penny is also headed from Dodger Stadium -- which ranked 29th in baseball in park factor for runs scored last season -- to Fenway Park, which ranked fifth.

That said, there are some positives. Penny is a ground-ball pitcher who can keep the ball in the park, which will help mitigate the park change a little bit. Additionally, he added a splitter to his repertoire last year that showed flashes of being a quality pitch -- one that would be better than his previous changeup -- and, despite his shoulder woes, he was still able to hold his velocity fairly well, still managing to hit 93-94 mph. However, based on the projected depth of the starting pitching pool next season, there are simply too many question marks for me to put Penny solidly in the Top 50. I could see taking a chance on him after that, depending on how much risk you wanted to stomach.

The signing does give the team some insurance in case Clay Buchholz is not quite ready to rejoin the Sox rotation, and allows them to keep Justin Masterson in the bullpen. Again, this assumes a healthy Penny, but Buchholz's potential 2009 value does take a hit.

The team also added a player for Penny to throw to, inking catcher Josh Bard to a one-year contract.

Of course, the Red Sox already had Bard once, and dealt him along with Cla Meredith to the Padres early in the 2006 season when it became clear Bard was having issues handling Wakefield's knuckleball, which was the No. 1 job for their backup catcher at that time.

Bard wound up hitting .333 with nine homers in fewer than 250 at-bats that season, with Theo Epstein terming the deal "short-sighted" at year's end, and Bard followed it up with a .285 mark in 2007. Bard required wrist surgery following the year, and it was unfortunately still an issue as 2008 started, as he had a cortisone shot in the area in May. It was part of the reason Bard hit .202 in his limited playing time. He missed two weeks with a strained triceps muscle and also wound up severely spraining his left ankle, an injury that caused him to miss almost two months. The Sox are counting on Bard to bounce back from all of the maladies of last year to at least serve as a quality backup.

This still leaves some room for Jason Varitek to return, or for the team to acquire a potential starter in a trade. Bard's playing time is going to depend on exactly who the other catcher on the roster is going to be. If it's Varitek, then Bard would receive more at-bats to see if he can find his '06-'07 form.

He's not a consideration in leagues in which only one catcher is required, but the depth in the catching pool looks to be as thin as ever this year. In AL-only play or deeper mixed leagues with a two-catcher requirement, a catcher that can at least provide a decent batting average is potentially useful.

Posted by Eric Karabell, ESPN.com

Good for Dusty Baker and the Cincinnati Reds. A season after foolishly giving Corey Patterson more than half the team's at-bats in center field, fellow overrated speedster Willy Taveras has been given a two-year contract. While Patterson was truly awful in 2008, Taveras is in theory a mild upgrade. But if you were hoping Jay Bruce was going to knock in 120 runs … well, it won't happen now.

Taveras is actually a fine fantasy asset because he steals so many bases; he swiped a majors-leading 68 bases in 2008 and stole 33 or 34 bases in each of the prior three seasons. The guy is fast. Of course, he can't steal first base, which continues to be a problem that will eventually, maybe even during the term of this relatively cost-effective two-year deal, force him to fourth outfielder status. Taveras has a career .331 on-base percentage, which is not good for anyone, let alone a leadoff hitter. Taveras had a .308 OBP in 2008, which certainly didn't aid Matt Holliday's RBI totals, and despite playing in Colorado, his slugging percentage was an incomprehensible .296. This is not a great baseball player.

The Reds, however, probably see the stolen bases and defense -- he can fly out there in center field -- and think he's a prototypical leadoff hitter. The Reds were 16th in the majors in stolen bases in 2008, which Taveras could improve by himself, but this isn't a sign that the team will run more than others do. Many leadoff hitters these days actually do get on base, but Taveras isn't one of them. He could steal 60 bases, so from a fantasy perspective, he is a good value after the top 50 if you've got your share of power hitters in the outfield. He does hit for a decent batting average, thanks in part to bunting for hits seemingly half the time. So what? The hits count, don't they? Just don't expect a lick of power or even the runs scored expected from a leadoff hitter. Taveras has never scored more than 83 runs in a season, and there's little reason to expect that will change in 2009. Oh, did we mention he's missed 92 games the past two seasons?

For Bruce, Joey Votto and others in the middle of the Cincy batting order, this shouldn't be the difference between making them keepers or not. They just won't be able to knock in as many runs, unless Taveras can recapture the .320 batting average and .367 OBP from Colorado's World Series season. Even then, however, Taveras wasn't a great player.

The Reds could have done so much better in their bid to upgrade Patterson, Ryan Freel and a host of others who posted a cumulative .299 OBP and .700 OPS this past season for a new center fielder who can lead off. They chose the fella who led the bigs in stolen bases. Fantasy owners who don't mind drafting one-category helpers will want to snatch up Taveras in the top 100. Just don't do it if your league counts on-base percentage or OPS.

Eric Karabell is a senior writer for ESPN.com who covers fantasy baseball, football and basketball. He has twice been honored as fantasy sports writer of the year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. His new book, "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments," was published by Source Books and is available in bookstores. Contact Eric by e-mailing him here.

Posted by Eric Karabell, ESPN.com

Some might regard the Giants' signing of 45-year-old Randy Johnson as some publicity stunt to sell tickets, especially for the big day when the future Hall of Famer wins game No. 300. The thing is, it's hardly a stunt if you use a relatively late draft pick on the Big Unit in a fantasy league. The guy can still pitch.

After a lost 2007 in which he made 10 starts and became a fantasy afterthought to many, Johnson was stronger than most realize in 2008, making 30 starts and finishing with a 3.91 ERA, a strong 1.23 WHIP and 173 strikeouts. Fantasy afterthought? Johnson won only 11 games -- hardly his fault -- and still ranked No. 47 for pitchers on the Player Rater, 35th if you take out the closers. He ranked sixth in the NL in strikeouts per nine innings, and didn't tire down the stretch. Johnson did his best work after the All-Star break, posting a 2.41 ERA, and he hurled a complete game to finish the season.

Although a bit unlucky in the wins department, Johnson was actually very good, and moving to San Francisco's pitcher-friendly AT&T Park won't hurt. In seven appearances at that ballpark, albeit versus the Giants offense, Johnson is 3-2 with a 2.14 ERA. In 102 starts against NL West opponents, he is 50-27 with a 2.68 ERA.

Wins might be a problem for Johnson in 2009, as he's no longer the type who completes his own starts. The Diamondbacks didn't have a great bullpen in 2008, and quite a few of Johnson's fine six-inning outings ended in no-decisions. Still, to say Johnson won't be able to get the five wins he needs to reach 300 is being awfully pessimistic. To say he'll win more than 12 games, no matter how he pitches, might be too optimistic. Giants No. 2 starter Matt Cain has won a sad total of 15 games in the past two seasons in 66 starts, despite a cumulative ERA of 3.71 and 349 strikeouts. Johnson will likely pitch well for the Giants, joining Tim Lincecum, Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito in a lefty-heavy rotation, but don't expect many wins for anyone here except Lincecum, the defending Cy Young winner.

In terms of Johnson's health, notably a recent history of back problems, there's little reason for concern there, despite his age. Johnson's 30 starts this past season were a very good sign, and probably surprised many in the fantasy world, considering 58 starting pitchers were selected ahead of him in ESPN average live drafts. No, he's no longer an ace, but this isn't a publicity stunt, either. With his new ballpark and the motivation of winning 300 games, expect Johnson to perform as well as 2008, winning double-digit games with good peripherals. That should make him a top-40 starting pitcher, and a decent mid-round pick.

Eric Karabell is a senior writer for ESPN.com who covers fantasy baseball, football and basketball. He has twice been honored as fantasy sports writer of the year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. His new book, "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments," was published by Source Books and is available in bookstores. Contact Eric by e-mailing him here.

Posted by Tristan H. Cockcroft

I suddenly feel like I'm watching an old "Monty Python" sketch, with a bridge keeper of a bridge over a bottomless pit … a bottomless pit of a wallet that belongs to the New York Yankees. I can hear the conversation now:

"What is your name?" says the bridge keeper.

"Mark Teixeira," the big free agent responds.

"What is your quest?" asks the bridge keeper.

"To make lots and lots of money," says Teixeira.

"What is the air-speed velocity of an unladen swallow?" questions the bridge keeper.

"Uh …" replies Teixeira.

And into the abyss of the Yankees' wallet Teixeira falls, like all the others before him, to fetch his millions … eight years and $180 million to be exact, so reports ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.

Pardon my jest, but at this point, isn't it hard not to kid around about the Yankees' spending spree? The Yankees have spent more than $400 million in contracts to free agents this month, and they now own the four richest contracts in the game: Alex Rodriguez's 10-year, $275 million deal; Derek Jeter's 10 years for $189 million; Teixeira's deal; and CC Sabathia's brand-spanking-new seven-year, $161 million contract.

But … it's also fair to say they boast a star-studded fantasy roster. It's a proverbial team of All-Stars, for our purposes, regardless of whether these purchases result in a World Series ring. Oh, how nice for fantasy that October is irrelevant to our cause; we can feast on big numbers from A-Rod, Teixeira, Sabathia et al, and not worry about such things as a playoff collapse.

Teixeira presumably will bat fourth in the lineup, providing A-Rod top-shelf protection, or vice versa; they'll be three-four for sure, batting behind quality on-base specialists in Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter at one-two. That's as good a first four hitters as anyone in baseball, even at the huge expense. To say that Damon and Jeter are locks for 100-plus runs, and A-Rod and Teixeira 100-plus RBIs, is an understatement. Fact is, you could probably bump those numbers up to 125 and not be unrealistic.

Not that Teixeira will be a top-five pick for fantasy. He plays the deep first-base position, and has averaged 32 home runs, 112 RBIs, 96 runs scored and a .298 batting average the past three seasons. Those are exceptional totals, but short of the .301-43-144-112 monster numbers he managed in his career year of 2005. Teixeira's donning the pinstripes does more to assure he reaches his 2006-08 baseline numbers than it increases his value; consider those the least he'll offer. He finished 22nd on the 2008 Player Rater, and as such will be a certain top-20 pick, appropriate even in the early second round.

It's the impact of Teixeira's arrival on other Yankees, however, that warrants discussion. Nick Swisher is most affected, as he was the projected first baseman as recently as a day ago. Now Swisher, coming off a miserable, career-worst campaign in which he batted .219 with a .742 OPS, will have to earn his at-bats among the three outfield spots and designated hitter. Making him the everyday center fielder is one solution to the Yankees' newfound roster-clutter conundrum, but it'd come at considerable expense to the team's defense. Swisher might play better than half the team's innings in center in 2009, especially should Melky Cabrera and/or Brett Gardner fail to lock down the position, but chances are he'll now be more of a 400 at-bat player than 500, diminishing his value.

Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, both more suited to DH than to play left field regularly at this stage of their careers, might also lose a handful of at-bats as a result, as Swisher shuffles around the lineup. Matsui would be at greater risk; he's coming off knee surgery and doesn't play as important a role in the lineup as Damon, the team's regular leadoff hitter.

The pitching staff also benefits, as many people who follow the Yankees were troubled by the anticipated offseason departures of Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi, who were responsible for 196 RBIs and 168 runs scored combined in 2008. Teixeira and Swisher, by comparison, totaled 190 RBIs and 188 runs scored. To say the Yankees should at least be able to match last season's 4.87 runs per game and .769 team OPS -- numbers that ranked them 10th and eighth, respectively, in baseball -- seems fair. In fact, should Swisher and Robinson Cano rebound, and Matsui and Jorge Posada recover well from injuries, there's a chance this offense will challenge for the top spots in most offensive categories. That further enhances the win potential for Sabathia, A.J. Burnett or Chien-Ming Wang, among others.

A final note for fantasy owners: The Angels suffer as a result of Teixeira's departure; a week ago, it seemed like he might re-sign with the team. With Teixeira gone, Kendry Morales becomes the most likely internal option to play first base, and the Angels mean it this time (for a few years they've called him their future at the position). Barring their adding another free agent -- certainly a possibility -- Morales will get a long look for the job. Unfortunately, through 407 career plate appearances of big-league action, the 25-year-old has batted .249 with a .710 OPS, making him a significant downgrade at the position. Morales' .332/.901 career minor league numbers suggest he has sleeper potential, especially in AL-only leagues, but having had the experience he has at the big league level with modest results, the possibility remains he's a dreaded "Quadruple-A" player.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.

Posted by Eric Karabell

So after a very messy set of negotiations where it appeared he might be headed back to Atlanta, Rafael Furcal appears to be returning to the Dodgers after all. And thus opens up a very interesting debate over his fantasy value heading into 2009.

Furcal hit .357 in 2008, so there's little question what kind of performer he is capable of being. The scrappy shortstop hits for average, normally has some pop and steals many bases, all from a premium position. What's not to like?

The problem is Furcal hit .357 in only 36 games for the Dodgers, and he missed 24 games the season prior. Heading into 2007, he was a top-5 shortstop, a dynamic offensive -- and really, defensive -- player on the level of Jimmy Rollins, whom fantasy owners could depend on year after year. Now, after back-to-back disappointing campaigns, many must wonder whether Furcal is going to be a top-50 player ever again.

We all would like to be optimistic heading into a new season, so it's a good time to mention Furcal hasn't had the type of injury history that should repeat itself year after annoying year. He sprained his ankle on a nasty collision in spring training 2007, and it hampered his numbers all season, even though he didn't miss that many games. He didn't hit for power that year, slugging an Omar Vizquel-like .355, but he stole enough bases to be relevant.

Late in 2007, he hurt his back, which again appeared to be no big deal. Oh, but it was a big deal. He needed lower back surgery in May 2008 and missed months, forcing the Dodgers to -- gulp -- go the Angel Berroa route. Considering Furcal was, on average, the No. 68 player taken in ESPN live drafts last season, let's just say his nearly five-month absence was a very big deal. Some Furcal owners just might not trust him again, even though he's 31, not exactly an age at which steep decline is obvious.

I didn't intend to rank Furcal among the top 5 shortstops anymore, not until we saw he could avoid injury, but the nature of the relatively disappointing position changed my mind. Sure, almost everyone gets hurt at some point. It's been two seasons now, and it's possible Furcal won't return to 15-home run power or 40 stolen bases. Then again, one probably can count on 100 runs scored if he can play 150 games, with maybe 10 home runs, 30 steals and a batting average in the .280 range. And don't be too concerned by the home park. In 2006, he actually hit 12 of his 15 homers at Dodger Stadium. There's nothing wrong with those numbers, and if I'm drafting today, the only shortstops I'm definitely taking ahead of Furcal are first-rounders Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes and top-25 option Rollins.

The position has depth, but not of the high-end variety. Derek Jeter and Jhonny Peralta were the Nos. 4 and 5 shortstops on our 2008 Player Rater, but I'd argue neither is a clear-cut top-50 player. Troy Tulowitzki had a disappointing sophomore season. Jeter, Michael Young and Miguel Tejada clearly are in decline. Peralta and J.J. Hardy don't run a lick. And it might be premature to move Stephen Drew and Alexei Ramirez past more proven players. For now, I would rank Furcal eighth or ninth, ahead of a few of the shortstops in this paragraph -- Ramirez is a shortstop now, by the way -- but not all. But I wouldn't laugh at those who feel Furcal is a top-5 shortstop.

While the Braves may have been jilted by the deal, they now don't have to worry as much about how to get at-bats for their solid middle infield duo of Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson. As for the A's, who originally thought they were close to getting Furcal before the whole mess with the Braves popped up, they will stick with Bobby Crosby, but you shouldn't.

Eric Karabell is a senior writer for ESPN.com who covers fantasy baseball, football and basketball. He has twice been honored as fantasy sports writer of the year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. His new book, "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments," was published by Source Books and is available in bookstores. Contact Eric by e-mailing him here.

Posted by Eric Karabell

I applaud the Cleveland Indians for giving Kerry Wood a smart, two-year contract. Wood's signing seemed to be minor news in comparison to that K-Rod guy becoming a New York Met, but in the fantasy baseball world -- and the real world, for that matter -- Wood is far better value. Will anyone remember that come draft day in March?

Consider how these relief pitchers are generally viewed by the often gullible public. Francisco Rodriguez just set the record for most saves in a season, with an incomprehensible 62. Every season he's among that group of top closers who gets drafted too early. He has the fancy nickname, playoff success, and now he's on a signature team in a new ballpark, ready to save oh, let's say 45 games. That's right, he's not getting 62 again, you know.

Wood had a nice season, but the Cubbies didn't want him. He's injury prone, has one year under him as a closer, so he's bound to be the next Troy Percival and disappoint, right?

I don't agree. Wood was not only huge value for the Tribe, but he will be in fantasy baseball, too, because saves are saves. I'd take the under on Wood getting the same 45 saves I think Rodriguez can get, but then again, I imagine few expected Joe Borowski to ever lead the league in saves. He did it as a Cleveland Indian.

Wood stayed relatively healthy for the 2008 Cubs, saving 34 games and producing better numbers than most would think. He fanned 84 hitters, had a low 1.09 WHIP -- considerably better than K-Rod -- and held opposing hitters to a .219 batting average. Wood had a very good year, ranking eighth on our Player Rater for closers. The Cubs have fireballer Carlos Marmol ready to take over the role, so letting Wood go should be viewed in perspective, as a financial decision, an obvious opening to let a star-crossed player move on. In terms of performance, however, there were few questions.

The Indians had serious problems in their 2008 bullpen, but being able to place good pitchers in their proper roles before the pressure of the ninth inning will serve everyone well. Jensen Lewis didn't struggle as closer, but the Indians realized he didn't have the pedigree and wasn't the long-term answer. Consider him similar to what the AL champion Rays have in Dan Wheeler; if Wood were to need a disabled list stint, Lewis could find his way to replacement saves. If not, Lewis will work eighth innings with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez, making for a strong support system. And make no mistake, while the Indians disappointed all around in 2008, they were trouble for other teams in September, and only a year earlier were one victory from the World Series. This is a potential division winner. Wood will get save opportunities.

Risk of injury might always be there for Wood, but that comes with the territory for the hard-throwing Texan. Considering he isn't likely to command a top-100 draft pick in most fantasy leagues -- my last ranking of Wood in Relief Efforts had him at No. 13 -- he's a terrific value choice. Since I'm not one to ever spend a top-50 pick on a closer, let's just say I'm a lot more likely to end up with Cleveland's closer on my teams than New York's closer.

Eric Karabell is a senior writer for ESPN.com who covers fantasy baseball, football and basketball. He has twice been honored as fantasy sports writer of the year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. His new book, "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments," was published by Source Books and is available in bookstores. Contact Eric by e-mailing him here.

Posted by Tristan H. Cockcroft, ESPN.com

Insert economy-related Yankees joke here.

Haven't we heard them all by this point? We get it, the Yankees still have oodles of money. They're moving into a new ballpark. They didn't make the playoffs last season. They want to next season. They're going to spend. Through the nose. So should we really be all that shocked that, on Friday afternoon, they added another high-priced arm to their stable of starters, inking A.J. Burnett to a five-year, $82.5 million contract?

Burnett slides right in as the Yankees' new No. 2 starter -- or perhaps No. 3, depending on how the team slots Chien-Ming Wang -- behind CC Sabathia, who announced his intentions to sign on as their new ace two days ago. With a top three of Sabathia, Burnett and Wang, the Yankees are in considerably better shape than they were to close the 2008 season, when they were relying on names such as Carl Pavano and Sidney Ponson to fill out their rotation. Yes, the Yankees have addressed their primary weakness of a year ago, and they've spent a fortune doing so.

As an aside, they might not even be done; Derek Lowe, Andy Pettitte and Ben Sheets are reportedly candidates to be added as the No. 4 starter in the upcoming days.

Burnett can be quite the enigma. In eight full big league seasons, he has made 30-plus starts exactly twice; coincidentally, both of those came in contract years. (I'm figuring, of course, you'd have known he was destined to opt out of his deal with the Blue Jays this winter, an obvious assumption.) He has a Tommy John surgery on his résumé. But he also has a no-hitter, a World Series ring, an 18-win season and two 200-strikeout campaigns on that very same résumé. For his career, Burnett has been the ultimate boom-or-bust candidate.

People tend to focus on the negatives with Burnett. Fact is, he managed a 3.94 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning (9.04 per nine, actually) in his three years in Toronto. But he also made only 80 starts in that time; Roy Halladay, by comparison, made 96. Burnett is a perennial injury risk, but for a guy who called the competitive American League East his home, he was pretty productive.

How might Burnett fare in New York? Wins won't be a problem for him, meaning a 30-start season equals at least 15, a good chance at a repeat of last year's 18 and an outside chance at 20. Plus, that he managed a combined 5-1 record, 2.05 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in nine starts combined against the Red Sox and Yankees in 2008 demonstrates his big-game ability. The New York spotlight, therefore, shouldn't really faze him. That's one thing that's probably less a risk factor with him than it is with fellow free-agent addition Sabathia.

Expect an ERA likely somewhere in the mid-to-high 3s and a strikeout per inning, statistics that would put a healthy starter well in the top 25 at his position. It's Burnett's injury risk, though -- the chance he might miss a dozen turns -- that diminishes his appeal. He placed 24th among starting pitchers on the 2008 Player Rater, and he might be a smarter choice in the No. 30 range on draft day accounting for that risk.

Make no mistake, though, if Burnett continues to slide in your draft past the top 25 starters, and you have the pitching depth to gamble on a guy with as good a chance to make 15 starts as 30, there's considerable upside here. Tremendous talent … but tremendous risk.

One interesting twist that might result from the Sabathia and Burnett additions (with one other probable signing to come): Joba Chamberlain now slots in as the Yankees' No. 5 starter, a role that by all rights could be won by former top prospect Phil Hughes in the spring. Should the Yankees either talk up Hughes as a serious rotation candidate or resume discussing using Chamberlain out of the bullpen to begin the season, take such comments more seriously than you might have two weeks ago.

I'm actually on board with Chamberlain working's as Mariano Rivera's set-up man, and I know I'm in the minority thinking that. That's more a concern about Chamberlain's long-term health and ability to endure 200-inning seasons than it is my suggesting it's a smarter strategy to use him for 75 innings than, say, 175. And this is clearly a guy who can help a fantasy team in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts even if a set-up role is what he lands in 2009.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.

Posted by Tristan H. Cockcroft

So the Pat Burrell era is apparently over in Philadelphia.

Phillies fans might always have considered Burrell a career disappointment -- compared to the expectations when he was picked first overall in the 1998 amateur draft -- but they might not be much more impressed with his replacement. Raul Ibanez, a consistent .290-25-100 hitter for much of his career, takes over as the Phillies' everyday left fielder after signing a three-year, $30-million contract, pending a physical.

On the surface, and especially for most fantasy owners, Ibanez is a fine replacement. From 2006-08, he managed a higher batting average than Burrell (.291 to .254), averaged more RBIs (113-93) and more runs scored (89-77), while averaging five fewer home runs (Burrell 31, Ibanez 26). Citizens Bank Park should only help matters; Ibanez played much of his career at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.

Problem is, the Phillies shed a couple of subtle advantages with this deal. Most notably, they lose four years and four months of age: Ibanez is 36 and will turn 37 next June, while Burrell turned 32 two months ago. It's hard to imagine Ibanez's career -- or at least his recent level of production -- holding up for the lifetime of his new deal. Burrell, meanwhile, could ink a five-year deal elsewhere and still stick pretty close to his recent level of production right through his new contract's expiration.

Going from Burrell to Ibanez also hurts the team in terms of on-base percentage, as the former generally was one of the game's most underrated performers in the category, ranging around .380 in recent seasons. Ibanez, meanwhile, is a consistent .350. Again, it's not devastating, but it's a small factor.

Ibanez's addition also makes an already left-handed heavy Phillies lineup even more left-handed. Now, the Phillies did manage a higher team OPS against lefties (.801) than righties (.757) the past season, ranking sixth in baseball versus lefties, but it's hard not to imagine them going with a left-handed heart of the order when Chase Utley is ready to return from hip surgery. That will make them awfully susceptible to late-inning matchups, and put them in jeopardy of some team-wide cold spells. When Utley, Ryan Howard and Ibanez bat three-four-five and surprisingly let the team down once or twice facing a lefty closer, say, Brian Fuentes on his new team, don't be entirely shocked.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Ibanez represents a downgrade defensively in left field from Burrell, if you can believe that. Though the range-related numbers don't show it, Ibanez does have 11 errors combined in left field the past two seasons, a high number, and his reputation in the field is poor, only to get worse as the aging process takes effect. It might not be enough to amount to more than a handful of runs over the course of a season, but suffice to say it'll be enough to at least be noticeable.

Are those factors enough to significantly hurt the Phillies' 2009 chances? No, and fantasy owners might not notice a lick of difference between Ibanez's 2008 and 2009 statistics, or between what Burrell provided last season and Ibanez next. Most of the above concerns are real-game related, and might not show up for our purposes beyond exploiting the daily matchups. But by the time Ibanez's contract expires, chances are, Phillies fans might not feel much better about him than they did Burrell.

In other words, Ibanez, the No. 28 outfielder on the 2008 Player Rater, could rank almost exactly the same next season. But the people hurt most by the switch might be Burrell, who loses the home ballpark advantage, and Phillies fans.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.

Posted by Jason Grey

There were no Joakim Sorias or Shane Victorinos in this year's Rule 5 draft, but there were still a couple of names that fantasy players should keep an eye on during spring training to see if they make big league rosters.

For the most part, the Rule 5 draft is about teams drafting players that could be potential middle relief arms, situational lefties or bench depth, and that was the case again this year. None of those categories is very appealing to fantasy players, and it's very rare for Rule 5 players to be used in late-inning relief or to get significant at-bats in the first year after they are drafted.

Rule 5 players need to be on the big league club all season long or be offered back to their original team. The latter is the likely outcome for most of the players drafted unless they really impress during the spring.

With that in mind, here are a few names to have on your radar screen:

Everth Cabrera, SS, Padres: The internal candidates for the Padres' open shortstop job aren't that exciting, and though the club is expected to add a cheap veteran such as Omar Vizquel, or add a shortstop in a potential Jake Peavy trade before camp starts, Cabrera's speed makes him worth watching. The 22-year-old stole 78 bags in the Sally League last season, and is also a plus defender with a strong arm. He doesn't hit for much authority, but the switch-hitter's glove could allow him to stick, allowing his legs to be a potential asset in fantasy play. The Rockies didn't want to lose him, but their 40-man roster was full.

Lou Palmisano, C, Astros: If you play in a league that requires you to play two catchers, Palmisano might be a viable play. He missed most of the season with a torn meniscus, but can swing the stick a little bit. Astros assistant GM Bobby Heck knows Palmisano from his days with the Brewers, and he'll have an opportunity to win part of the catching job. He knows the strike zone, could hit for a batting average that won't kill you and should add some modest pop. Given the depth of the catching pool in recent seasons, that might be useful in deep leagues if he gets some at-bats.

Eduardo Morlan, RP, Brewers: The Brewers' bullpen is unsettled, and Morlan has shown closer-type stuff in the past. This year he missed two months with shoulder problems, and his velocity -- which was in the mid-90s when I saw him at the AFL in 2007 -- was down quite a bit when he returned. It has reportedly come back a little bit in winter ball, and if he's 100 percent entering spring -- and though he's projected in a seventh-inning role right now -- he could become a deep sleeper for saves depending on the other moves the Brewers make this offseason. He throws strikes and can miss bats when he's right.

Ben Copeland, OF, Athletics: I think Copeland has an uphill battle to win a roster spot, but if he winds up getting some at-bats as a fourth outfielder, he has a little bit of speed and might be able to hit enough to have some value in deep AL-only play.

James Skelton, C, Diamondbacks: Skelton is absolutely devoid of pop, but he controls the strike zone and can make contact, having posted a career .418 OBP in the low minors. The diminutive backstop is not suited for an every-day role, and if he makes the club, he would serve as a third catcher, but if an injury or trade occurs to give him some more playing time, he could be a second catcher option in deep NL leagues who won't hurt you. Sometimes that's all you're looking for, even if there's very little upside.

Although there are other arms that I liked that were taken in the draft, such as Luis Perdomo, David Patton and Miguel Gonzales, none of them are expected to be much more than extra bullpen arms in the short-term, limiting their utility for fantasy owners.

Jason Grey is a graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and has won two Tout Wars titles, one LABR title and numerous other national "experts" competitions.

Posted by AJ Mass

After watching Mark Loretta opt for a more lucrative deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Diamondbacks have apparently found their new second baseman in the form of free agent Felipe Lopez.

It's easy to forget that Lopez was an All-Star in 2005, hitting 23 home runs for the Reds, because his power numbers have never come close to approaching that kind of output since. Lopez has hit only 26 home runs combined in the three seasons since then, and has done so for three different teams, moving from Cincinnati to Washington in 2006, before being released by the Nationals last season in July. What the Diamondbacks are hoping is that they'll be getting the Felipe Lopez who finished the 2008 season in St. Louis, batting .385 in 156 at-bats.

Lopez is younger than the man he'll likely be replacing at second base, Orlando Hudson, and gives the Diamondbacks a lot more positional flexibility since he can play all four infield positions as well as the outfield, if the need arises. In addition, Lopez should be able to help the Diamondbacks in the speed department. He's only two seasons removed from a 44-steal campaign, and considering that Arizona, as a team, managed only 58 stolen bases in 2008, Lopez may be able to inject a little new life into a stagnant, base-to-base offense.

If nothing else, Lopez is a definite upgrade over the likes of Augie Ojeda or late-season acquisition David Eckstein, neither of whom has the upside of Lopez, if he is able to retain the magic he seemed to reacquire in a Cardinals uniform.

A.J. Mass is a fantasy football, baseball and college basketball analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.

Posted by Tristan H. Cockcroft

What a past 24 hours for the city of New York.

While the Yankees were inking ace CC Sabathia to a seven-year contract, across town, the Mets were addressing their bullpen, first by signing single-season saves record holder Francisco Rodriguez, then by providing him with a fellow former American League West closer to set him up, acquiring J.J. Putz from the Mariners early Thursday morning.

Putz arrives as the key player in a three-team, 12-player trade, not exactly one I'd term a "blockbuster," not if you look at the other names in the deal. Still, it's an interesting one for fantasy … and probably a maddening one for Putz owners.

Why might that be, you ask? Simply put, Putz closed in Seattle; he will not in New York. And in most fantasy leagues, a closer is a valuable thing. A setup man, generally, is not. Blame it on the rotisserie scoring system; saves is one of the five standard pitching categories. Holds is not, and a 3.07 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP -- Putz's career marks in those categories -- from a 75-inning reliever tend not to hold the kind of weight they might if they came from a 200-inning starter. That's just the game.

But I'll go ahead and say Putz shouldn't be discarded in fantasy just because he's wearing Mets blue and orange. This is a smart trade for the Mets, with some subtle ramifications for our purposes. Most notably, Putz loses a good share of value, but his ERA and WHIP probably will be helped by the migration to the more pitching-oriented National League -- just ask Johan Santana. The new Citi Field probably won't be quite the pitchers' heaven Shea Stadium was, but a first guess is that the change in ballpark won't have too much of an effect on Putz in his transition both from Safeco Field to Citi Field and from the AL to the NL. At worst, if healthy, he's capable of that 3.07 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and probably better, especially if you note that those numbers were 1.86 and 0.81, respectively, in 2006 and 2007 combined. His questionable health was very much the cause of that poor 2008.

We'll get a better read on how healthy Putz is come spring training, but the Mets probably wouldn't have dealt for him had his elbow still been a serious issue. Besides, he had a 2.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in his final 15 appearances in 2008. Rodriguez long has been hailed as an injury risk because of his violent delivery, and while predicting a DL stint for the Mets' new closer might be a bit much, those owners with the luxury of a deep bench might be smart to handcuff him with Putz. After all, Putz did show in Seattle that he can be a dominant closer, too. At the very least, he can be that 75-inning reliever with good ratios and somewhere in the ballpark of 90 strikeouts. That kind of setup man has value; it's just generally higher in NL-only or deep mixed formats, or in leagues that reward holds.

Another benefit: With K-Rod and Putz now at the back end, Mets starters no longer have to worry about handing over late-inning leads. Santana, robbed of anywhere from five to eight wins in 2008 depending on whom you believe, certainly will be happy to hear he doesn't have to complete all his games anymore to earn that elusive W.

Franklin Gutierrez is the next-most-relevant fantasy name in the deal, going from Cleveland to Seattle, where he presumably will take over as the everyday center fielder, or right fielder, with Ichiro Suzuki going back to center. Gutierrez, 25, disappointed in 2008, but he's a tremendous athlete and a fine defender, and he mashes left-handed pitching. AL-only owners will find value in him now that he's practically guaranteed everyday at-bats, but asking for more than, say, a .265-.270 batting average with 20-homer power and perhaps 10 steals would be foolish.

Aaron Heilman heads from the Mets to Seattle in the deal, a piece that might result in the biggest fantasy impact of all -- it will be either Heilman or Brandon Morrow who replaces Putz as the team's closer. Morrow, who had 10 saves in 12 chances with a 1.59 ERA and 0.66 WHIP in 22 appearances as the team's closer from June 1 to Aug. 3 this past season, is by far the more likely, having had experience in the role. Problem is, both pitchers have said they'd prefer careers as starting pitchers. Heilman might get that chance and be a final-round sleeper if he impresses in the spring, but Morrow, with his power arm, genuinely has top-10 closer potential if that's his 2009 role. Keep tabs on how the bullpen shapes up, but I see Morrow closing and being a huge breakout candidate.

Among the lesser names in the deal: Joe Smith heads to Cleveland and Sean Green to New York. Both are side-armers and ground-ball specialists who are tough on right-handers but mediocre against lefties and thus matchup relievers. Neither has fantasy value, although Smith probably is the more talented of the two. Endy Chavez lands in Seattle and former top prospect Jeremy Reed in New York; it's a swap of defensive-minded backup outfielders. Neither should receive the at-bats needed to make a fantasy impact. Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrera and Maikel Cleto also go from the Mets to the Mariners; none of them should have any effect in fantasy in 2009. Carrera will be a prospect worth monitoring, though. Finally, infielder Luis Valbuena goes from Seattle to Cleveland, where he'll help provide infield depth, at minimal-to-zero fantasy impact.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.

Posted by Tristan H. Cockcroft

So in the end, it really was all about the money.

After nearly four weeks of awaiting his response to the Yankees' reported six-year, $140 million offer, listening to rampant speculation that he preferred to play closer to home, on the West Coast, and that he'd rather remain in the National League, CC Sabathia decided to take the money and run. But not before the Yankees beefed up their offer, apparently; ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reported Wednesday that Sabathia will accept a seven-year, $160 million deal to don the pinstripes.

Speculation was the name of the game in the Sabathia sweepstakes this offseason. Surely by now you've read all the angles: his weight, his pitch counts the past two seasons, the pressure cooker that is New York baseball, his postseason record, his desire to pitch on the West Coast. I know I have. And I have one response:

I love this deal.

Yes, that probably seems like an easy statement to make, coming from a lifelong Yankees fan. Rampant homerism; I get it. But one of the objects of fantasy baseball is to put the heart to the side and let the brain do the talking. Break down this deal -- no matter your team allegiance -- Sabathia is a New York Yankee beginning in 2009, and it's hard not to get excited. Certainly not as far as fantasy baseball is concerned.

Some might bring up parallels to the Yankees' trade for Randy Johnson before the 2005 season, perhaps the most similar offseason pitching acquisition, and the fact that he didn't live up to expectations. However, the case could have been made that Johnson would disappoint. He was 41 years old, and didn't exactly make the best first impression, with that whole incident with a cameraman on a New York street. You could see -- to a point -- the writing on the wall. With Sabathia, there's the possibility he'll be slow to adapt to the bright lights of New York, but the guy is 28, in the prime of his career, and coming off a Cy Young-caliber season. (Plus he won one the year before, in 2007.)

Think the Alex Rodriguez acquisition in February 2004. He was -- da-da-da-DAAAA! -- 28 years old, and coming off an MVP season. No matter how you feel about A-Rod from a pure baseball perspective, with regard to his postseason record, clutch performance, number of rings, etc., for fantasy, there's no denying he's one of the -- if not the -- best players in the game. That acquisition paid off; this one should, too.

But to be fair, there's a caveat to my Sabathia seal of approval: He's a pitcher, and a seven-year deal, carrying him through his age-34 season in 2015, probably isn't the smartest long-term investment. There will come a time during the lifetime of the deal when the Yankees -- and their fans -- will probably regret the investment, at least a little. Mark it down: By 2012, maybe sooner, maybe later, there will be a time when anti-Sabathia sentiment is all the rage.

That brings up the aforementioned "warning signs"; first and foremost, his weight. Sabathia is listed at a hulking 295 pounds, ranking him among the heaviest players in big league history. (Walter Young, who played one season for the Orioles in 2005, was the heaviest, at 322.) There has been a lot of concern that Sabathia's physique might eventually cause him to break down. That might be possible, but the guy does keep himself in playing shape, and Yankees fans will be quick to remind you that David Wells averaged 17 wins in four years in pinstripes despite a similar physique. It's a concern, but probably not until CC at least gets that 30th candle on his birthday cake. (Spare the cake jokes, please.)

Next concern: Sabathia's recent workload. Between the regular season and postseason, he has amassed 513 innings the past two seasons combined, leading the majors in the category both years. He has totaled 7,398 pitches during that span, easily tops in the bigs. But you've heard this all before. The Yankees will need to monitor Sabathia's workload more closely than either the Indians or Brewers did. Plus, they likely won't allow him to complete 10 of his own starts or throw him numerous times on three days' rest. For that reason, the structure of the Yankees' bullpen is important in evaluating Sabathia for both 2009 and beyond, especially how the team deals with filling Mariano Rivera's shoes in the next several seasons. (Joba Chamberlain, anyone?)

How Sabathia handles the New York spotlight is anyone's guess. A-Rod has handled New York respectably enough. Mike Mussina did. Randy Johnson did not. Javier Vazquez did not. So if there's any worry regarding Sabathia in 2009, any at all, this is the one.

As for the lesser concerns: postseason record -- well, that doesn't exactly matter in fantasy, fortunately. Besides, A-Rod has generally been a successful Yankee despite some forgettable Octobers. Being away from home? Many people work far from home, and it's not like Cleveland is next door to California, anyway.

Total up those warning signs -- no matter how small they might seem today -- and it's easy to believe there will come a stinker of a year (or two, or three) during the lifetime of Sabathia's deal. Keeper-league owners, keep those nuggets tucked away.

For 2009, though, mark it down: Sabathia will be one of the strongest 20-win candidates in baseball. He joins a Yankees team that averaged 4.87 runs per game in 2008, among the top 10 in baseball, after finishing a season with a Brewers team that averaged 4.63. Also, the Yankees, as evidenced by Sabathia's own deal, are willing to invest in improving their team. There might not be a team more likely to keep its offense in the ballpark of five runs a game annually, meaning the bulky lefty should be a fairly consistent 20-win candidate for as long as he can stay consistently healthy during his deal.

Does that make Sabathia the No. 1 pitcher off the board in fantasy leagues? Probably not. Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum are perhaps safer choices pitching in the National League. Having the Red Sox and Rays in his division does keep Sabathia a little behind those two in the all-important ERA and WHIP categories, but make no mistake: He's a clear top-five starter for next season, and probably No. 3 at the position. So long as you don't overrate him, forecast a 25-win campaign or pick him in the first round, Sabathia will make a fine ace for you. Slotting him in the top 25 overall isn't unwise.

Just don't ask me where I'd pick him in 2012, at least not today. Give me Sabathia in the first two or three rounds in each of the next three seasons; after that, all bets are off.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.

Posted by Jason Grey

The No. 1 prospect in baseball is going to get his chance sooner rather than later.

The impact of the Orioles' trade of Ramon Hernandez to the Reds for Ryan Freel and two minor leaguers is not as much about the players involved as it is about the path it clears, as Matt Wieters is now firmly in line to receive a lot of playing time in 2009.

Even before the deal, it was still expected that Wieters would play a good amount of big-league ball next season and ascend to a starting job when Hernandez was dealt sometime around midseason. Instead, the Orioles decided to pull the trigger on a deal now.

As of this writing, the Orioles don't have a catcher on their 40-man roster, so they are expected to sign a veteran to pair with Wieters. As Jerry Crasnick reported in our Winter Meetings blog, Michael Barrett and Gregg Zaun are on their radar screen, but it seems clear that the majority of at-bats are ticketed for Wieters. Right now, the team is saying this deal doesn't necessarily mean Wieters may start right away. President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said Wieters may spend the first few weeks of the season at Triple-A. MacPhail told MLB.com: "It had been our goal to make sure we could introduce Matt into the Major League scene somewhere over the course of the '09 season. Not necessarily to start right away, but we thought he could handle it eventually after a little time in Triple-A possibly under his belt." But that could change if Wieters has a big spring.

If he does somehow start the year in the minors, I don't expect him to be down there for long. Geovany Soto had no problems with his offense in his rookie season in the big leagues, and I don't expect Wieters will, either. I don't think I'd let him slide out of the top-10 at the position for me, and I expect he'll be in that range in most drafts.

Ramon Hernandez quietly rebounded from a slow start to rank in the top 15 at the position, and a player with a career .263 average and the potential for 15-plus homers is a useful player at a position without a lot of offensive depth. Camden Yards was the No. 1 park for homers last year, according to ESPN's Park Factor. Cincy's Great American Ballpark was fourth, so don't read too much into his change of home venue. Hernandez should remain a solid option when you need to fill that second catcher slot.

As for Freel, if he's healthy and his speed hasn't been diminished too much by surgery to repair a torn hamstring -- big ifs for someone who has played a total of 123 games the past two seasons -- he should continue to be a utility man who brings some speed and multiple position eligibility to his fantasy owners. His potential playing time will depend on the other moves the Orioles make this offseason, but expect him to be a fourth outfielder and a backup at second and third base, squeezing out enough at-bats to make him a solid asset again in single-league play.

Does either of the prospects the Orioles received in the deal have a chance to be a decent fantasy player? Most likely not. Second baseman Justin Turner doesn't profile as a regular, but more of a utility guy, and even if he did get some starting at-bats, he wouldn't produce much more than an empty batting average. Third baseman Brandon Waring brings some big-power potential, leading all short-season leagues in homers in his pro debut in 2007 and adding another 20 in the Midwest League this past season. However, he has 239 strikeouts in his first 188 professional games despite not advancing past low Class A. That's not a good sign for his ability to keep his production going as he moves up the ladder.

• You pretty much know what you're getting when it comes to Casey Blake. When you've needed to fill that third base or corner slot toward the end of the draft, Blake has been a solid option over the last six seasons by virtue of having a lock on a starting job, and his three-year contract with the Dodgers ensures that he will continue to have one, at least for 2009. Sometimes when filling out your roster you're looking not for the player with upside, but for someone with steady production, and Blake has been able to provide that.

That said, Blake is 35 years old, and even putting up one of the better seasons of his career last year still ranked him only 18th among third basemen in our Player Rater. It's reasonable to assume that his advancing age and spending a full season in one of the worst hitting parks (according to Park Factor) will mean a decline in his numbers and likely push him out of the top 20 at the hot corner next season. Essentially, Blake remains that endgame corner guy you can take when you're looking for someone with some guaranteed at-bats, but his production is not as safe as it used to be.

The fallout from Blake's return to the Dodgers means that Blake DeWitt will shift over from third to grab at least a share of the second base job. The Dodgers also signed Mark Loretta on Tuesday, with the idea that the useful veteran will fill Nomar Garciaparra's role as the utility player who can play all over the infield. However, it wouldn't surprise me if the right-handed-hitting Loretta eventually works his way into a platoon with the left-handed-hitting DeWitt, despite DeWitt's reverse platoon splits in his rookie season. Loretta has hit lefties at a .300 clip with an OPS more than 120 points higher over the last three seasons. DeWitt is still the player you want out of the two, but Loretta's presence will eat into his at-bats and make DeWitt a less viable play in mixed leagues.

• Another third baseman inked a new deal Tuesday, as Mike Lamb re-signed with the Brewers. He's currently ticketed for a platoon role with Bill Hall. Hall's struggles against right-handed pitching have been well documented. He's hit just .235 with a .731 OPS against them over the last three seasons, including an anemic .174 last year.

Lamb can post a decent batting average and hit 10-15 homers in a platoon role, making him moderately useful as a spot starter and fill-in player when injuries strike your squad, while Hall's diminished playing time makes him far less likely to post a comeback season. Hall did undergo LASIK surgery in October, which means he can get rid of the contacts he's worn since he started playing baseball and might help him out a bit at the plate, but he's still just a cheap NL-only endgame play until he gets a few more at-bats.

What does this mean for left-handed-hitting third base prospect Mat Gamel? He will be given a chance to win some at-bats, but is likely ticketed for a good portion of time at Triple-A this year to continue to work on his defense. He needs to show that he can bounce back from a slow finish to 2008, as well as right elbow tendinitis that sidelined him late in the season (and was affecting him well before that). Gamel hit just .243 in July and .205 in August after batting .381 for the first three months of the season at Double-A. He's still a premier prospect, and this signing allows the Brewers the luxury of not having to rush him.

Jason Grey is a graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and has won two Tout Wars titles, one LABR title and numerous other national "experts" competitions.

Posted by Eric Karabell

No matter how much the New York Mets or the representatives of Francisco Rodriguez tried to deny it, one couldn't ask for a better fit for the record-setting closer than to make his new home at the new Citi Field. The Mets had money and an obvious, desperate need for a prime-time closer. K-Rod wanted the money and attention. Now everyone's happy, including fantasy owners, who should feel confident a 40-save season is ahead.

Of course, the problem is -- and really, aren't there always problems? -- fantasy owners will be selecting Rodriguez very early in drafts based on the premise another 62 saves are coming, not merely 40. We can't say for certain he won't deliver the same record-setting number he did for the Angels this past season, but considering how a mere nine pitchers in history have even reached the 50-save mark, prepare yourself now for the letdown. Rodriguez gets his saves, an average of 44 in his first three full seasons closing, but let's just say a perfect confluence of many factors played a role in breaking Bobby Thigpen's record.

Rodriguez wasn't fantasy's top closer in 2008 -- according to our Player Rater, had his save total been in the mid-40s he wouldn't even have been in the top 5 -- and some can make the case, by viewing walk rates and potential arm abuse, the Mets shouldn't go the extra year to sign him, but hey, he's going to save plenty o' games. Moving from the American League to the National will not hurt him, the Mets should be a playoff contender and give him opportunities. Plus, while nobody has played in the Mets' new ballpark, it's unlikely to be like Coors Field.

I ranked Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera and Brad Lidge ahead of K-Rod in my offseason Relief Efforts, and joining the Mets -- which let's face it, I had kinda figured on all along -- doesn't really change a thing. In fact, as long as Manny, Moe and Jack are K-Rod's set-up men instead of Jose Arredondo and Scot Shields, one could consider Carlos Marmol, Bobby Jenks and Joakim Soria better as well. For now, I'll assume the Mets upgrade Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano and Mr. Met for the seventh and eighth innings and someone with a track record is the main set-up guy (Brian Fuentes, maybe?).

As for the Angels, it was presumed all along K-Rod was history, which is why I ranked Arredondo No. 12 in Relief Efforts. Really, he could be the next Rodriguez, and it wouldn't shock me one bit if Arredondo has better fantasy seasons the next few years than the man he replaced.

The bottom line, I suppose, is K-Rod is going to get a lot of saves, and if you're the type who fancies closers as top-50 commodities, he's in the conversation. I make it a point to leave closers out of my top 50, and use the middle rounds on the closer middle class, so if I call Papelbon and Nathan seventh-round selections, let's say Rodriguez is a round or so later.

Eric Karabell is a senior writer for ESPN.com who covers fantasy baseball, football and basketball. He has twice been honored as fantasy sports writer of the year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. His new book, "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments," was published by Source Books and is available in bookstores. Contact Eric by e-mailing him here.

Posted by Eric Karabell

The winter meetings got off to a rousing start Monday when … Gerald Laird got traded from the Texas Rangers to the Detroit Tigers. OK, so it doesn't have quite the same pull as CC Sabathia or Manny Ramirez finding a new home, but hey, don't laugh at Laird, as he will play a role in plenty of fantasy baseball leagues in 2009.

Laird likely will be dismissed by many for his career .255 batting average and failure to reach double-digit home runs at any time in his career, which he's spent mostly as a backup with Texas. But he could be one of those emerging catcher bats ready to do a Kelly Shoppach and stun us all. Consider that Laird has never really gotten a chance at full-time duty before but should be Jim Leyland's opening day backstop and be in line for at least 450 plate appearances. Judging by his numbers in parts of six seasons, he wasn't a guy who feasted solely on lefty pitchers nor relied on a significant edge in his home ballpark. Laird has showed potential for power against right-handed pitching and had a higher on base percentage plus slugging percentage in road games for the past three seasons.

Detroit isn't a hitters' haven, but given the likely uptick in playing time, we should see Laird reach double digits in home runs, possibly flirt with 15 or so. As it was, while sharing time behind the plate with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and others, Laird finished No. 16 on ESPN's Player Rater at catcher, thanks to a good-for-the-position .276 batting average. The Rangers thought enough of his bat to let him play 10 innings at third base and accrue 16 at-bats at designated hitter. A power surge could loom ahead, and Laird might end up on a number of fantasy sleeper lists. I wouldn't rank him in the top 10 at catcher quite yet, but he's not far off, and if you're in a league with two active catchers, you'd have to consider him at some point late in the season. He might not be far from the top 10, sort of a Chris Snyder or A.J. Pierzynski type.

As for how this will affect the Tigers, the pitching prospects going to Arlington are not likely to make an immediate impact, as Carlos Melo is 17 years old, and Guillermo Moscoso spent his 2008 season in the low minors. Brandon Inge probably thought he had a chance at the starting catcher job, but he would be better served batting ninth and playing third base, with Carlos Guillen set to take over in left field. Laird is regarded as a fine handler of pitchers, and before the 2008 season he had done a good job throwing out opposing base stealers. I wouldn't upgrade Tigers pitchers just yet, but hey, Inge is a very good defensive third baseman, which might help more.

The Rangers had a wealth of catching depth to start with and might be in a position to make more deals. Saltalamacchia reportedly has been linked to the Boston Red Sox. Fantasy owners might be giving up on the former Atlanta Braves prospect, but he's only 23. Max Ramirez has a powerful right-handed bat after destroying Double-A Frisco with a 1.096 OPS, making some think he's the next Geovany Soto. But he likely is ticketed for first base or designated hitter. Taylor Teagarden is the catcher of the future but needs to hit in the spring to win the starting job. At this point, all three current Rangers catchers should be on the fantasy radar, but none is a lock to outproduce Laird in 2009.

As for what else has happened at the winter meetings on Monday, as of this writing, Todd Coffey is back with the Milwaukee Brewers organization. There is no current closer in place to save games for Yovani Gallardo, but let me tell you, Coffey isn't the answer. I'll set the over/under on his 2009 save total at one … then take the under. The Brewers will sign a free agent to replace the retiring Salomon Torres.

Posted by Jason Grey

The last time Edgar Renteria stole 30 bases was six seasons ago. He's stolen more than 15 bases just twice in the past five seasons, getting 17 each time. Yes, he did hit .332 in 2007, the second time in six years he hit at least .330, but that was due to an absurdly high .375 average on balls in play. It corrected to normal levels last year and brought his average down to .270.

At age 33, Renteria is what he is at this point: a career .290 hitter who will struggle to reach double-digits in homers and steals. And yet, the San Francisco Giants still decided to give Renteria a two-year, $18.5 million contract.

While many fantasy owners generally undervalue the actual worth of a good batting average, there still isn't a lot to get excited about. Renteria is gradually turning into Yuniesky Betancourt, even bringing his OBP down to a Yunieskian (always wanted to say that) .317 level last year. Given that Betancourt is six years younger you could make a plausible case for taking Betancourt over him. I would still take Renteria if I had my choice, but I'm just pointing out the similarities in their recent numbers.

Renteria has lost a tiny bit of bat speed, but can still make good contact. As 2007 showed, you can get lucky when you're able to consistently put the bat on the ball, so .300 is certainly possible again. Putting Renteria on your roster is most effective if you have some low-average power hitters that you need to help out, and anything else beyond batting average is just a bonus, not something you pay for. It's possible he runs more in the Bay area, but his diminished raw speed may make it a moot point.

The trickle-down effect of this signing means that Emmanuel Burriss, if he's not traded, could be a factor in the battle for playing time at second base in San Francisco. Kevin Frandsen was thought to have the inside track on that job, but that situation is a bit murkier now.

As for the Tigers filling Renteria's spot at short, they may be looking to make a deal for someone like Jack Wilson or Julio Lugo, or sign someone like Nick Punto or Adam Everett to go with Ramon Santiago if they're looking to economize at the position. None of these players would spark much fantasy interest. Right now, they don't appear to be in the market for more fantasy-relevant options like Rafael Furcal or Orlando Cabrera.

Jason Grey is a graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and has won two Tout Wars titles, one LABR title and numerous other national "experts" competitions.

Posted by Jason Grey

Khalil Greene is not the kind of player you actively pursue in the draft, but the kind you take a chance on late when the options are dwindling and you're hoping to get lucky. Being dealt to the Cardinals doesn't change that.

Obviously, getting out of the worst hitter's park in baseball (according to ESPN.com's Park Factors) is helpful for the 29-year-old shortstop's offensive potential, but Busch Stadium ranked 23rd last year, so it's not a huge boost. It is more conducive to homers (ranking 19th), which is Greene's primary benefit to fantasy owners, so there is certainly some upside.

Greene has slugged 110 points higher on the road in his career, and in four seasons prior to last year, he ranked second among all shortstops in slugging on the road. That's the upside the Cardinals are counting on.

That doesn't mean fantasy owners should do the same. Again, he's a player with "bounce-back" potential that you grab in the later rounds. His lack of discipline and free-swinging, hit-for-the-fences ways, which were as bad as ever last season, aren't going to change in a new location. A career .304 OBP negates any positive value he may have in leagues that count that stat.

It's also worth noting that Greene has reached 500 at-bats just once in five year due to injuries, although admittedly some were fluky. Well, except for that punching-a-storage-unit thing.

He could hit 25 homers again, but with a batting average in the .240 range or worse. I could make a case he shouldn't be drafted in the top 20 at the position. However, if you wanted to take a chance on him after 15-17 other shortstops are off the board, I wouldn't argue that very hard.

For the Padres they are just happy to be rid of Greene's salary in the midst of their efforts to cut payroll drastically this offseason. If they don't find a bargain-basement veteran in free agency, they may look to in-house options like Luis Rodriguez or Sean Kazmar, and neither is a fantasy consideration.

As of this writing, multiple reports have indicated the Padres will receive two relief pitchers back, neither of whom was in the big leagues last season. If that's true, and Jason Motte and Chris Perez are staying put in St. Louis, the bullpen arms going the other way should not be on fantasy radar screens.

Jason Grey is a graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and has won two Tout Wars titles, one LABR title and numerous other national "experts" competitions.

Posted by Tristan H. Cockcroft

Call him Javier Vazquez, perpetual traveler.

For the fourth time in the past six winters, the right-hander is on the move, and for the fourth time, he'll switch leagues. (Perhaps "human pingpong ball" would be a more apt description.) Vazquez lands in Atlanta this time, headed along with Boone Logan in a trade for prospects including Tyler Flowers, Brent Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore and Santos Rodriguez, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

We know what you're thinking: Any trade that takes Vazquez out of Chicago and away from homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field, especially one that shifts him to the lighter-hitting National League and into what is perceived to be a pitching-friendly venue, Turner Field, has to be considered a favorable one for his fantasy prospects.

But the truth is, Vazquez was no pushover in his White Sox days in spite of the challenging circumstances. He registered 22 wins, a 4.16 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 8.38 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio in 48 starts at home from 2006 through '08. A look at his lifetime numbers demonstrates that he always has been a stronger pitcher at home than on the road, regardless of his home ballpark, as evidenced by an ERA more than a half-run higher and a WHIP more than one-tenth of a point higher in road games. U.S. Cellular wasn't the problem with Vazquez. Fact is, 11 years of service already have proven he's simply no better than the pitcher who toed the mound in each of the past four or five years.

In addition, Turner Field isn't the pitching-friendly ballpark everyone thinks it is. Our Park Factors page shows it was actually hitter-friendly in 2008, although a scan through the past half-decade or so suggests it's a neutral venue, or perhaps favors pitchers ever so slightly. Vazquez might not so often be victim of the untimely three-run home run in Atlanta as he was in his days in Arizona or Chicago, but that's about the only benefit he really receives with the change in ballparks.

Any gain that Vazquez earns with the migration to the NL or Atlanta's ballpark is neutralized by a drop-off in potential run support, anyway. The White Sox averaged 4.98 runs per game with a .780 team OPS this past season, while the Braves managed 4.65 and .753 numbers, and that was with Mark Teixeira on the roster for half the season. Barring a big free-agent addition, Vazquez might need to win more games on his own.

Expect another typical Vazquez year in 2009: 12 to 14 wins, an ERA around 4.00 if not a bit north of that, and a healthy strikeout total in the 200s range. Mixed-league owners will welcome a pitcher like Vazquez into the fray in the middle rounds, but he's not the type you want leading your staff. He's depth, not a top-25 capable arm.

Of the White Sox's haul, Flowers is the most prominent prospect in the group. Tabbed by Jason Grey recently as his most impressive hitter of the Arizona Fall League, the catcher led the AFL in home runs (12) and slugging percentage (.973), raising his prospect stock immensely. At 22 and fresh out of Class A ball, Flowers isn't yet
big league ready, but he's on the fast track. The primary question about his future is whether he'll remain behind the plate by the time he arrives in about a year or two. Keeper-league owners would be well served to keep his name tucked away in 2009 drafts.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.