Once again, it's time to tunnel into the numbers of the Chase like an earthworm hopped up on Red Bull. For the final time this year, we'll rank the Chasers in order of their chances at this week's track. This time, it's the 1.5-mile Homestead-Miami Speedway, which has been reconfigured more times than Joan Rivers' face.
As always, I rank the 12 Chasers in order of who I think has the best chance of winning this weekend, based on their career numbers at HMS, recent momentum and how they finished the last time we visited South Florida. Every week I am flooded with "What the hell is a Driver Rating?" questions. If you dare to explore that NASA-like math, check out this explanation from One Bad Wheel. Hint: Anything over 100 is very, very good. Current points rankings are in parentheses.
After glancing at the digits, five quick observations:
1. Surprisingly, only four of the Chase guys have won here.
2. Don't read too much into Tony Stewart's two wins. They came in the first two races he ran at Homestead and were on the old configuration. His average finish in his other 10 starts is 12th.
3. Don't read too much into Jimmie Johnson's generic average finish and his lack of wins. Much like this weekend, he rarely comes to the season finale actually needing a win, rather he's just trying to hit a target finishing position to clinch a championship.
4. If Roush is going to end its season on a high note, as in its first non-plate win since the season's second race, then this is the place to do it. Roush Fenway Fords have won seven of the last eight HMS events -- Kurt Busch won there in '02, Greg Biffle in '04-'06 and Carl Edwards one year ago. Edwards is trying to avoid being skunked after winning nine races in '08. Biffle is trying to avoid going 0-for-season for the first time in his seven-year Cup career.
5. Man, has Brian Vickers had some God-awful career numbers at all of these Chase tracks.
| Best Chances at Homestead-Miami
|
| Driver |
Starts
|
Wins |
Top 10's |
Avg. Finish |
11/16/08* |
Driver Rating** |
| Carl Edwards (11)
|
5 |
1 |
4 |
6.4 |
1st |
117.2 |
| Greg Biffle (7)
|
7 |
3 |
3 |
13.4 |
18th |
103.0 |
| Jimmie Johnson (1)
|
8 |
0 |
5 |
13.6 |
15th |
87.2 |
| Mark Martin (2)
|
9 |
0 |
5 |
12.0 |
N/A*** |
91.6 |
| Jeff Gordon (3)
|
10 |
0 |
8 |
9.9 |
4th |
92.6 |
| Kurt Busch (4)
|
8 |
1 |
3 |
21.5 |
43rd |
63.4 |
| Tony Stewart (5)
|
10 |
2 |
5 |
11.9 |
9th |
88.1 |
| Juan Pablo Montoya (6)
|
3 |
0 |
0 |
22.0 |
17th |
76.2 |
| Denny Hamlin (8)
|
4 |
0 |
2 |
13.0 |
13th |
87.6 |
| Ryan Newman (9)
|
7 |
0 |
2 |
20.3 |
21st |
80.3 |
| Kasey Kahne (10) |
5 |
0 |
2 |
17.6 |
6th |
91.3 |
| Brian Vickers (12)
|
6 |
0 |
0 |
31.7 |
32nd |
46.0 |
* Ford 400, won by Carl Edwards
** Driver Rating has been compiled by NASCAR since 2005
*** Martin ran a partial schedule in 2008
The "Why We Call Richard Petty The King" Fact Of The Week
His Royal Fastness was retired long before the Homestead-Miami Speedway opened in 1999, but that doesn't mean that The King doesn't still rule the Sunshine State.
In all, eight different Florida tracks have hosted NASCAR Grand National/Cup Series events. Petty raced on three of them -- the Daytona International Speedway, the Golden Gate Speedway in Tampa and the Speedway Park in Jacksonville. He won on two. The first was a victory in the only race ever run at Golden Gate, in November 1962. And his records at Daytona will likely never be broken, with 10 wins in all, including an amazing seven Daytona 500 victories. The next closest active drivers are Jeff Gordon, with six wins, and Tony Stewart and Michael Waltrip with three each.
Racing With The Stars
I'm sure you've spent all week jonesing for info to fill out your NASCAR Celebrity Chase Tracker fantasy league brackets. As always, I'm here for you.
As we told you last week, the competition for the 2009 NCCT has been hot and heavy between a pair of unlikely rivals -- U.S. Congressman Patrick McHenry and Foreigner, as in the original Juke Box Heroes.
Last weekend at Phoenix, likely spurred by the appearance of fellow Republican John McCain, the Congressman had a big day. He opened up an 18-point lead over the 50 million album-selling band, thanks to strong efforts by Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin. The rockers were treated "Cold As Ice" by their pick to win, Ryan Newman, who finished 20th.
Now Mick Jones and company find themselves in a real life Battle of the Bands. Suddenly hot on their heels is John Ondrasnik of Five For Fighting, who is followed closely by professional bowler Danny Wiseman and celebrity chef Mario Batali.
Mmmm ... ricotta frittata.
Ryan McGee
