More than 125 pitchers will be available in the winter after all the free-agent filings and non-tenders are completed. But far too few front-line starting pitchers -- the kind who can lead a pitching staff through a long summer, the type who can carry the responsibility of being a staff's ace -- will be on the market.
Roy Halladay certainly fits that description, and it's fairly evident his time in Toronto is nearing an end. He will be eligible for free agency after next season and has told the Blue Jays that above all else, he wants a chance to win. Toronto is in the midst of restructuring, and Halladay's timeline might not fit the team's timeline, as new Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos conceded recently during an online chat. The Jays won't market Halladay as they did in July, but they will listen to the offers that inevitably will be thrown at them.
Some rival executives are convinced that Atlanta's Javier Vazquez, who was arguably one of the four best pitchers in the National League this past season, will be traded in the weeks ahead. Vazquez will make $11.5 million next season before becoming eligible for free agency, so the Braves might be compelled to move him now to take advantage of his value. Atlanta needs a right-handed-hitting outfielder, and the other possible trade pieces on the Braves' pitching staff -- Derek Lowe (who is owed $45 million over the next three seasons) and Kenshin Kawakami (owed $13.3 million over the next two seasons) -- do not generate much enthusiasm among some rival talent evaluators.
Vazquez went 15-10 in 2009 with a 2.87 ERA, 238 strikeouts and just 44 walks in 219.1 innings after posting ERAs of 4.84, 3.67 and 4.74 in his previous three seasons with the White Sox. The Braves have other pitchers around which to build their staff -- Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and the newly signed Tim Hudson -- and probably could get a decent young hitter in return for Vazquez.
Meanwhile, John Lackey, the best available free-agent pitcher, is capable of leading a staff, as he has demonstrated for years with the Angels. The concern about Lackey's health -- the 31-year-old missed the beginning of the past two seasons with elbow trouble -- probably will preclude him from signing a nine-figure deal, but he'll get more money than any other pitcher in the winter.
A handful of teams are said to be ready and willing to pay the price to land an ace.
1. Milwaukee Brewers: Remember, it was only a year ago when Milwaukee offered CC Sabathia a $100 million deal, so the Brewers clearly are prepared to pay big dollars for a big-time starting pitcher. And they have a clear need: Even with rising star Yovani Gallardo anchoring the staff, Milwaukee ranked dead last in starters' ERA at 5.37 and 27th in rotation innings this past season.
The Brewers conceivably could enter into trade conversations for Vazquez or Halladay, but this course would be problematic. Milwaukee traded aggressively in 2007 and 2008, most notably for Sabathia, and this depleted its farm system. Trading a top young player for a one-year rental like Vazquez or Halladay might not make sense.
It probably would make more sense for the Brewers to take a serious run at Lackey, who as a free agent would not cost them talent in trade. He would take pressure off Gallardo and fit their team culture.
The Brewers also could easily structure a Lackey deal to fit their payroll into the future. Jeff Suppan's contract will expire after next season, and the only real long-term obligation the Brewers have set in stone is to young slugger Ryan Braun, who is signed through the 2015 season. Milwaukee just reduced salary obligations by trading J.J. Hardy to the Twins and replacing Mike Cameron (who made $10 million last season) with Carlos Gomez.
Look, there will be questions about the Brewers' lineup next season given that they will have a group of hitters who don't do certain things very well -- Gomez doesn't get on base consistently, Jason Kendall doesn't hit for power (a .305 on-base percentage this past season), Rickie Weeks doesn't seem to stay healthy and Corey Hart has been a picture of inconsistency.
But the Brewers cannot win unless they improve their starting pitching dramatically, and Lackey, if healthy, would do that.
2. Texas Rangers: They were one of the teams most aggressively pursuing Halladay at the trade deadline, and if they could land one of the big three available aces -- Halladay, Vazquez or Lackey -- they could have a formidable pitching staff next season if Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz (13 hits allowed in 31 innings with 39 strikeouts) continue to develop as expected.
Lackey would fit for many reasons -- he grew up and played college ball in Texas; he's had success in the AL West Division -- but it's unknown whether the Rangers have any chance to make an aggressive multiyear offer for the right-hander, given how their ownership is in a state of flux. The timing just might not be right.
Rather, the Rangers might be more inclined to make a deal for a one-year fix like a Halladay or Vazquez, and there already are rumblings that the Braves and Rangers have discussed Vazquez. What would the Rangers have to surrender?
First baseman Chris Davis could fit in Atlanta, but he's coming off a poor season and probably wouldn't be enough. Talent evaluators for other teams wonder whether Josh Hamilton is in the Rangers' long-term plans. "Who knows what to expect?" one scout asked. "He's had one great season and he was hurt most of last season, and when he did play, he wasn't that great." Hamilton had an OPS of .741 in 89 games for the Rangers in 2009.
What about Nelson Cruz, who emerged at age 29 to have a solid season of 33 homers and a .856 OPS? For the Braves, he would be relatively cheap, could have some impact hitting fifth or sixth in their lineup and has the potential for high impact. There would be questions about Cruz's home-road splits (his OPS at home last season was 153 percentage points higher in Texas than on the road), but there might be some common ground for the Braves and Rangers here.
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: They set themselves up for Lackey's possible departure by trading for Scott Kazmir in August, and based on how negotiations progressed -- or didn't -- they seem to have a fairly hard line on what kind of investment they're willing to make in Lackey, whom they know better than any other team. They could be OK if he walks away, so long as Kazmir continues to improve and Ervin Santana bounces back.
But they obviously would have a big hole at the front of their rotation, and on paper they do match up with the Jays in some ways for a deal for Halladay. Toronto could use young infielders, and the Angels have a wealth of young infielders.
The hardworking, diligent Halladay would be a perfect fit for Mike Scioscia's clubhouse and the organization's culture. (Then again, Halladay would be a perfect fit just about anywhere.)
What follows is pure speculation: Could the Jays and Angels structure something around Halladay and Howie Kendrick (plus others), who could play first base for Toronto and give the Jays an excellent young core of hitters with Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and Travis Snider?
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: Could use an ace, but it's unclear whether they are willing or able to land one. The great unknown, of course, is how much the McCourts' impending divorce will affect roster structuring, but it's hard to imagine L.A. getting deep into the bidding for Lackey. And the Dodgers really don't match up well with the Braves for any kind of Vazquez deal, because presumably they wouldn't consider trading Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier.
Los Angeles is expected to move at least one of its many arbitration-eligible players via trade. You might match Halladay with what the Dodgers have to offer -- Canada native Russell Martin plus others. But remember that Martin's OPS has dropped 162 points during the past two seasons. He also is climbing swiftly up the arbitration ladder; his salary might climb from $3.9 million last season to $6 million next season. In the end, the Dodgers might not get the ace they need.
• The Brewers' youth puts the pennant further away, writes Michael Hunt. The Braves will be looking into possible deals this week, writes David O'Brien. The Phillies' future hinges on young pitcher Cole Hamels, writes Bob Ford.
• The Diamondbacks and Jays are discussing a possible swap of catcher Chris Snyder for first baseman Lyle Overbay, writes Nick Piecoro. Overbay would be a great fit for the Diamondbacks: He had a good (but not great) season in 2009, mustering a .372 on-base percentage, and would provide some defense and left-handed balance. Snyder is a solid defensive catcher who works well with pitchers and could pop 15 homers for the Jays. The money owed to them is fairly comparable -- Snyder is owed about $11.25 million during the next two seasons, while Overbay will make $7 million next season.
Keep in mind an ulterior motive for the Jays: If they land another catcher and Rod Barajas walks away as a Type B free agent, Toronto will receive draft-pick compensation.
There is no quick fix for the Blue Jays, writes Shi Davidi.
• Facing a Monday deadline, the Twins picked up the 2011 option on Michael Cuddyer, Joe Christensen writes. There might be risk that the Twins won't get full value in return for Cuddyer in 2011 at a $10.5 million salary, but it's worth remembering that everything the Twins do in the months ahead can be viewed through the prism of their Joe Mauer Project. They will try to persuade their franchise catcher to sign a long-term contract (and give them a hometown discount, presumably), so they will do everything in their power to demonstrate they can contend consistently. Cuddyer is a well-liked and highly respected veteran who has been good for the Twins -- teammates remarked about how many big hits he got down the stretch as they drove for the AL Central title -- so picking up his 2011 option can be seen as part of the early down payment on Mauer.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Joe Torre is talking with the Dodgers about an extension, writes T.J. Simers. It's a recurring situation in Torre's career: He speaks about the possibility of walking away from managing, but after taking a few weeks off to clear his head, he changes his mind.
2. The Mariners are set to start talks with Ken Griffey Jr.'s agent this week, writes Larry Stone. Seattle's GM has some big decisions pending as he heads off to this week's GM meetings in Chicago.
3. The Reds will focus on adding a shortstop and catcher in the days ahead, writes John Fay. Within the piece, he speculates that Miguel Olivo might be a fit in Cincinnati. Hal McCoy wonders what the Reds could do considering what they're up against. Writes McCoy: "Under the current rules, there is no way, none, zip, nada that the Reds can ever win." A number of small-market and medium-market teams are beginning to feel that way.
4. The Cubs are prepared to let Rich Harden and Reed Johnson go, writes Paul Sullivan. Harden would make some sense for a team with a little payroll flexibility willing to gamble on a modest one-year deal -- such as the Mets or Red Sox, who gambled this past winter on Brad Penny and John Smoltz. On a one-year deal, Harden is low-risk and potentially high-reward, but any team that signs Harden would have to be built to absorb a series of five-inning starts. Harden averaged a whopping 17.7 pitches per inning for the Cubs last season.
5. The Rays have some roster decisions to make, writes Marc Topkin.
6. Chone Figgins has a tough decision to make, writes Mark Whicker.
7. The Rockies have cut ties with Josh Fogg but are working on a deal with Rafael Betancourt, writes Troy Renck.
8. Nick Cafardo says the Red Sox should pursue Adrian Gonzalez.
9. John Harper has 10 ideas for building the 2010 Yankees.
Dings and dents
Three Phillies will undergo surgery this week.
Other stuff
• The Giants' new hitting coach is getting right to work -- as in this week, writes Andrew Baggarly.
• Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will finally take a break, writes Jim Salisbury.
• The moves of this past offseason paid big dividends for the Yankees, writes Joel Sherman.
• It's time for the Yankees to say goodbye to Hideki Matsui, writes Ken Davidoff. The Yankees need to clear their glut of free-agent candidates,
Buster Olney
