I had an OK week last week; I went 10-9-1 against the line, putting me at 11-over for the season versus the number. The good was picking Tennessee to handle South Carolina. The bad was picking Virginia Tech to pound UNC. And the ugly was picking WVU to pound USF. Here are this week's guesses:
Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Tech is hoping to avoid its first three-game losing skid since 2003. The Hokies haven't lost consecutive games in which they were a double-digit favorite since 2002. (They were a big favorite over UNC and are almost a two-TD favorite here.) My hunch is that the Hokies' D, which has been so shaky this season -- giving up 31 plays of 20 yards or more -- will stiffen against the country's No. 80 offense. The pick is Virginia Tech 27, East Carolina 24.
Boise State Broncos at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Friday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
La. Tech has played its toughest opponents so far on the road, but back at home, there seems to be an even bigger difference with this team than with most: Tech is 0-5 on the road and 3-0 at home. The Bulldogs are a pretty capable running team with tackle-busting tailback Daniel Porter. I think Tech will keep this interesting for a little while before Boise State's offense overwhelms the country's 74th-rated D. The pick is Boise State 47, La. Tech 31.
UCF Knights at Texas Longhorns (Saturday, Noon ET)
In 2007, George O'Leary's team gave UT fits, but that Longhorns defense wasn't playing as well as this bunch is right now, and UCF doesn't have a Kevin Smith to spark its offense. UCF does have a strong pass rush (eighth in the country in sacks), but its secondary is pretty ripe (90th in pass D) for Colt McCoy. The Longhorns QB has started to heat up in the past two games, completing 81 percent of his passes. The pick is Texas 52, UCF 7.
Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes (Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN)
Both teams love to scare their fans by falling into a hole early. Mike Kafka is one of the more underrated QBs in the country, but I don't think he'll have enough support from his O-line (94th in sacks allowed) to beat a defense this tough on the road. Plus, the Cats are just 1-2 on the road this fall. The pick is Iowa 27, Northwestern 17.
Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers (Saturday, Noon ET, ESPNU)
Pitt had to rally to beat Cuse last season, but right now this Panthers team is playing so much better on both sides of the ball. Plus, Cuse had a tumultuous week with the Mike Williams news (the star receiver quit the team), and this is only the Orange's second road trip, the first in almost two months. Not good. I think Bill Stull will feast on the country's 117th-rated pass D. The pick is Pittsburgh 42, Syracuse 10.
Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes (Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN360)
Al Groh's big, physical team has played Miami very tough the past few years, winning two of the past three games, including embarrassing the Canes 48-0 in their last home game at the Orange Bowl. Problem is, Groh's O-line is too suspect and Miami's Allen Bailey has blossomed into a force to bail out a defense that has been ravaged by injuries. I think UM will get some revenge this time around for the Cavs' last visit. The pick is Miami 30, UVA 13.
Wisconsin Badgers at Indiana Hoosiers (Saturday, Noon ET, Big Ten Network)
The Hoosiers have scrapped a lot this season; they're 3-1 at home. However, I keep going back to this thought: So many times when there is a lot of postgame discussion about how one team was jobbed by some controversial calls, that team comes out really flat the following week (see Arkansas the week after Florida this season, or Washington the week after BYU last season, or Ole Miss the week after Alabama in 2007). The pick is Wisconsin 27, Indiana 10.
Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
The Irish are cruising along offensively now, and getting back standout WR Michael Floyd is a big plus. Navy is just 104th in sacks and doesn't offer the passing game to attack the Irish's biggest weakness, their pass D (109th). The pick is Notre Dame 41, Navy 17.
LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Tigers' defense has been playing really well in the past month, but containing Mark Ingram for four quarters on the road will be too much for LSU. I also don't think the Tigers' O-line (101st in sacks allowed) will be able to withstand the pressure from Nick Saban's defense. The pick is Alabama 20, LSU 7.
Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
This one has "trap game" written all over it. The Ducks are coming off such an incredible high, and now they have to go on the road to face a program they've beaten seven times in a row -- and by a big margin. However, Jim Harbaugh's team is very different from the ones Oregon previously whipped up on. Stanford is as physical a team as there is in the Pac-10. The Cardinal also have had an off week to prepare. I was tempted to pick an outright upset, but I think Jeremiah Masoli will make a big play late to save the Ducks. The pick is Oregon 35, Stanford 34.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Jim Grobe's team lost a couple of weeks ago to a similarly styled team, Navy, and gave up almost 340 yards rushing. Plus, the Deacons are coming off an emotional home loss to Miami. Expect the Jackets to have another big day on the ground. The pick is Georgia Tech 42, Wake Forest 24.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Not a friendly place for Terrelle Pryor to see the country's No. 1 scoring defense. The Nittany Lions have been great at getting penetration (fourth in sacks in the country, second in tackles for loss). That spells trouble for the young QB. My hunch is that Penn State QB Daryll Clark will respond with a very solid game after the Iowa debacle. The pick is PSU 23, OSU 16.
Washington State Cougars at Arizona Wildcats (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
The Cougs' offense hasn't scored more than 17 points in five Pac-10 games, and they are 119th in total D, which means Nick Foles and the Cats' offense will roll. The pick is Arizona 54, Washington State 10.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
The Cowboys actually have lost three of their past five games against ISU, and the home team has won this matchup four straight times -- and by a huge margin (28 points per game). That has given me second thoughts on this pick, especially since OSU just got smashed by Texas. I'm tempted to go with the trend and pick the upset, but I think Zac Robinson and the OSU offense will come through. The pick is Oklahoma State 34, Iowa State 27.
TCU Horned Frogs at San Diego State Aztecs (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)
Quietly, the Aztecs have put together a decent season, and they've really made some strides under their new staff. Young Ryan Lindley is making better decisions of late. He's thrown nine TDs and zero INTs in his past two games. Of course, this will be by far the best D he's faced, but I think the Aztecs will keep it interesting. The pick is TCU 27, SDSU 20.
New Mexico Lobos at Utah Utes (Saturday, 6 p.m. ET)
The Lobos have lost 12 in a row, and the pressure around the program in the wake of the Mike Locksley scandal isn't going to make life any easier this week facing a tough Utes team. UNM, which had been a headache for rival offenses when it was coached by Rocky Long, has held only two opponents (NM State and SD State) to fewer than 34 points all season. I'll go with the Utes to cruise here, although I do wonder whether they will come out a little flat given that next week they have to travel to TCU. The pick is Utah 41, New Mexico 10.
Oregon State Beavers at California Golden Bears (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET)
The road team has won five of the past six meetings in this series, and I was leaning toward going with the Beavers, but their O-line (101st in sacks allowed) scares me against Cal and its formidable front. I'll still go with the Beavs and their very underrated QB. The pick is Oregon State 31, Cal 30.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators (Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Without Brandon Spikes, expect the Gators to respond with an emotional effort against the SEC's worst offense. Vandy hasn't scored more than 10 points in five SEC games. The Commodores also haven't had much success protecting the passer (20 sacks allowed). Expect Tim Tebow and the Gators' offense to roll. The pick is Florida 48, Vanderbilt 3.
Houston Cougars at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Tricky spot for the Cougars, who face a team that has lost three in a row. The last time these two played in Tulsa, TU won 56-7. Then again, Kevin Sumlin wasn't UH's coach back then. He also has a few guys on his staff who are pretty familiar with Todd Graham's system. I think Tulsa will come through with a strong effort at home against the ranked team, but ultimately, Case Keenum will be too much. The pick is Houston 47, Tulsa 41.
Connecticut Huskies at Cincinnati Bearcats (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
The Bearcats have won four of five against Randy Edsall's program by an average margin of two touchdowns, but these Huskies are so well coached and such a resilient team, they've been hard to put away. (All four of their losses have come by a combined 13 points.) I feel like this could be the week their emotional tank hits E, but maybe the national TV setting will enable them to summon something more. The pick is Cincy 31, Connecticut 21.
USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
What kind of response will USC have after getting demolished up at Oregon? I think you'll see a more focused group, especially since the Sun Devils just don't have anywhere close to the firepower the Ducks had. ASU (82nd in the country running the ball) won't be balanced enough to cause USC too many problems. The pick is USC 21, ASU 7.
Oklahoma Sooners at Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
Last season, the Sooners smashed NU for 62 points. The Huskers' D-line is too tough for that to happen again, especially since OU's offensive line is a fraction of what it was last season. I think this one will look like an SEC game, but I'll go with OU with the edge in offensive weapons to pull it out in the fourth quarter. The pick is Oklahoma 17, Nebraska 14.
Around the college football landscape
• Steve McNair Jr. has announced he is going to play for Southern Miss, which is just 10 miles from his home. According to Rod Walker, McNair, who will play wide receiver, picked USM over Alabama:
"It feels good to just be close to home and be able to have my family be able to come and support me," said McNair, the son of the late NFL quarterback of the same name. "Their offense is a spread offense and they get after it," said McNair. "It's an offense that I fit in with well."
• Even though neither is a top-10 team this season, the matchup between Oklahoma and Nebraska probably will feature more elite D-linemen than any other game this season. And, Jake Trotter writes, it will pit the two top DT prospects in the country, Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy:
Both are favorites to win Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. Both are near locks to be named first-team All-American. Both will vie for the Lombardi and Outland trophies. In fact, Saturday's showdown could go a long way in determining all of that, despite the best efforts of both players attempting to downplay the matchup. "I'm interested to see how well our offensive line does against him, but for me, my concern is their offensive line," Suh told The Oklahoman in a phone interview. "I'm not really paying too much attention to the hype. We're on two total opposite sides."
McCoy tried to avoid taking any questions about the matchup by preemptively declaring he had nothing to say about Suh. But even McCoy acknowledged it's not often the focus is on the defensive tackles. "Well true, but it is about time we get some credit," he said. "We work hard enough. But we don't want credit. We just want to do what we can up front to help our team."
• Speaking of DTs, Penn State's Jared Odrick's stock is rising, according to the Philly Inquirer:
Before the start of pre-season camp, Odrick said he wanted to play a "more violent" style, to have the upper hand of the opponent trying to block him. "When you play more violent, you can play faster, and faster means more productive," he said. "But there were a lot of things that I had to improve on and get a whole lot better at." Don't think people haven't noticed his level of play. Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez called Odrick "as good of an inside guy as I've seen in years." And his teammates are appreciative of what he has contributed. "You can't ask him to do anything more," said middle linebacker Josh Hull, the Lions' leading tackler. "He squeezes the guards, he squeezes the center, and that allows us to flow free."
• Props to Brandon Spikes for his decision to sit down the whole game against Vandy. Jeff Schultz gives the linebacker a lot more credit for this than his coach:
Spikes is doing what Urban Meyer wouldn't: He is accepting responsibility, doing the right thing and putting his team first. Fact is, this also should go a long way with NFL scouts who might have wondered about Spikes' character after the play. It will diminish any potential criticism of the NFL team that drafts him. Question: Why is Meyer suggesting he had any role in this decision when Spikes is the one who stepped up and asked for it? It's worth repeating: Meyer was not going to suspend Spikes at all. He only looked into the incident after both his wife and Strong said something to him about it. Spikes deserves all the credit here.
Who knows for certain who really was the driving force behind this decision? Could've been Spikes. Could've been Meyer. Could've been AD Jeremy Foley. The upshot is, it's been addressed.
• Lane Kiffin might not be able to criticize the refs, but he sure doesn't mind pushing the envelope when it comes to jabbing Urban Meyer. The latest, as Dave Hooker reports:
Kiffin also weighed in on Florida linebacker Brandon Spikes, who has been suspended by Florida for Saturday's game against Vanderbilt for eye-gouging Georgia tailback Washaun Ealey last week. "I did see the rerun," Kiffin said. "It was pretty bad but we'll worry about our team and what we can control. We've got a lot of work to do. Obviously, he'll discipline his team - or not - however he feels."
• Is USC's dynasty on its deathbed? Michael Lev wonders.
My hunch is not yet. USC still has a gifted true freshman QB to build around in Matt Barkley and more athletes than anyone else in the Pac-10, but the gap has closed over the past few years; Chip Kelly's arrival, I think, will give Carroll more competition than he's ever had before.
Thing is, we're prone to overemphasize the significance of one game in a larger context. What prompted Nebraska's downturn? Or Notre Dame's?
Miami didn't backslide because it lost to Tennessee or Ohio State. These things occur because you get attrition on your staff. Complacency sets in. It's impossible to keep replacing stars who leave early for the NFL. After years of batting at an incredibly high rate on recruits, you start missing on some. You don't end up with as strong a group of team leaders. Those recruiting ranks that people always point to can actually be pretty hollow. (Miami's slide coincided with the arrival of more supposed blue-chippers than it had when it built its 34-game win streak.)
But I said no to the original question because I don't see a decline like the ones ND, Nebraska and Miami made recently. Pete Carroll is more in control than the tops of those other programs were when they were challenged. Now, if he were to bolt, I'd say that'd be different. I still think USC will be the biggest powerhouse on the West Coast as long as Carroll is running the show, but as for it being at the level it had been at -- that probably is past, although it should be noted the Trojans haven't won a national title in almost five years now.
• Jevan Snead has had a disappointing season, which has prompted a lot of speculation as to what has gone wrong. Ole Miss offensive coordinator Kent Austin isn't a big fan of a lot of this, as you can see, according to David Brandt:
Q: Analysts have said Jevan is locking in on receivers. Do you think that's true? A: (Laughs) I'm sorry, I'm not even going to comment on that. What the flip would they know? That's F-L-I-P by the way. But I mean seriously, give me a break. What a -- that's ridiculous. They wouldn't have a clue what we're doing offensively. They couldn't come in and draw up one thing that we're doing right now and explain it. Not one thing. But I know they're analysts -- what a joke."
• Impressive showing by former UNC D-lineman Marcus Jones on Wednesday night on "The Ultimate Fighter 10." You don't often see such a big guy with a ground game like that. Former college football players now are 3-1 on the show, with Jones, former Purdue DL Matt Mitrione and CU's Brendan Schaub all winning, while Mississippi State lineman Wes Shivers lost.
Bruce Feldman
