The conversations between general managers began accelerating this week, and some have noticed a distinct trend that does not bode well for this winter's crop of free agents. The financial restructuring that has been occurring across the landscape is about to hit the arbitration-level players like a tidal wave.
Executives say many of the names being discussed by teams as possible trade bait include a growing number of players with three to five-plus years of service time -- players who are eligible for arbitration. This is widely being read as a precursor to a wave of players in that group not being tendered contracts before the Dec. 12 deadline. "I think the market will get flooded with non-tenders," opined a veteran executive.
Atkins
A classic example of this is a 29-year-old player who has had three seasons of 99 or more RBIs:
Garrett Atkins, the Rockies third baseman who slumped badly in 2009, hitting .226 with a .650 OPS. He earned $7.05 million last season, and he could be in line to make $8 million to $10 million if the Rockies were to offer him arbitration.
But the Rockies could ensure themselves of significant savings by simply not tendering him a contract, or by trading him. If the early trade chatter turns out to be a true indicator of what is to come in the weeks ahead, it appears more and more teams will at least weigh the possibility of dumping arbitration-eligible players rather than paying them in the range of $6 million to $8 million after their fourth or fifth year of service time. Early indications are that many teams are going to choose to cut ties with some of their own four- and five-year players rather than pay them arbitration-level prices when they know they can get similar production more cheaply either from internal candidates or from free agents who won't cost as much.
For more on why there could be a flood of non-tenders this winter, and where Milton Bradley might be heading, you must be an Insider.
Buster Olney
