ESPN Buster Olney Blog

The conversations between general managers began accelerating this week, and some have noticed a distinct trend that does not bode well for this winter's crop of free agents. The financial restructuring that has been occurring across the landscape is about to hit the arbitration-level players like a tidal wave.

Executives say many of the names being discussed by teams as possible trade bait include a growing number of players with three to five-plus years of service time -- players who are eligible for arbitration. This is widely being read as a precursor to a wave of players in that group not being tendered contracts before the Dec. 12 deadline. "I think the market will get flooded with non-tenders," opined a veteran executive.

A classic example of this is a 29-year-old player who has had three seasons of 99 or more RBIs: Garrett Atkins, the Rockies third baseman who slumped badly in 2009, hitting .226 with a .650 OPS. He earned $7.05 million last season, and he could be in line to make $8 million to $10 million if the Rockies were to offer him arbitration.

But the Rockies could ensure themselves of significant savings by simply not tendering him a contract, or by trading him. If the early trade chatter turns out to be a true indicator of what is to come in the weeks ahead, it appears more and more teams will at least weigh the possibility of dumping arbitration-eligible players rather than paying them in the range of $6 million to $8 million after their fourth or fifth year of service time. Early indications are that many teams are going to choose to cut ties with some of their own four- and five-year players rather than pay them arbitration-level prices when they know they can get similar production more cheaply either from internal candidates or from free agents who won't cost as much.

For example: Last year, the Braves paid second baseman Kelly Johnson $2.85 million, and with four years, 127 days of service time, he is eligible for arbitration after a season in which he slumped and lost his every-day job to Martin Prado. Rival executives expect the Braves will try to trade him, and if they are unable to do that, then to strongly consider cutting him loose rather than paying him $4 million to $5 million in arbitration. To put that salary in context: Last winter, Orlando Hudson signed for a base salary of $3.38 million, with incentives. The Braves can reasonably expect to find more cost-efficient alternatives than Johnson on the market, among the growing group of free agents.

And if there are more players non-tendered, well, that means more available alternatives to what is already going to be a large and lackluster free-agent class. The elite free agents like John Lackey, Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are going to be paid well (although perhaps not anywhere near the nine-figure numbers speculated upon in some quarters) but for many players, the simple matter of massive supply and reduced demand is going to hurt their leverage as free agents.

Mark Hendrickson, among those who are headed into free agency, is hoping the Orioles don't wait to sign him, writes Jeff Zrebiec. You get the feeling that the first days of the free-agent signing period might be a little like the opening of the Oklahoma territory -- everybody rushing to get their piece of the money pie before somebody else snags it. Once again, indications are that this is going to be an extremely cold winter for free agents.

Dealing Milton Bradley

The Cubs are getting some nibbles as they work to dump the contract of Milton Bradley, and in all likelihood, this will result in a deal in which they move him to another team in return for a player with a contract that hasn't worked out. One possibility, writes Bob Elliott, is a trade of Bradley for Vernon Wells, who has five years and $98.5 million remaining on his contract. (If that trade happened, this would be a stunner, because that would mean the Cubs would have collected two of the three most untradable contracts in the game. In Wells and Alfonso Soriano, the Cubs would have two right-handed-hitting outfielders performing well below what you would expect for players making as much as they do -- the two of them would be owed $188.5 million through the 2014 season. If the Cubs were actually willing to do this deal, it would mean that the baseball gods twice rescued the Jays from bad contracts within the span of a few months, with the other being the Chicago White Sox's waiver claim of Alex Rios).

Here are some of the other bad contracts on the books which could, in theory, create a possible match for a Bradley deal. But even among those, there are a lot that wouldn't line up because of other circumstances.

1. Carlos Silva, Mariners (still owed $23 million over the next two years): This is, without a doubt, the best possible matchup -- on paper, anyway. Silva has been a complete bust for the Mariners, having gone 5-18 in the first two years of his contract. The Cubs could move Bradley for Silva and hope that Silva rediscovers his sinker and becomes an option for the back end of their rotation, or for long relief, and if he doesn't … well, they'd just release him. And the Mariners could swap Silva for Bradley trying to make something out of nothing: At some point, Seattle would probably just release Silva, given his performance, but in trading for Bradley at a time when they're in need of power from the DH spot or corner outfield spot, they at least would have a shot at recouping some value. If Bradley didn't work out, well, they would just eat the money, as they probably are going to have to do with Silva, anyway. What is unknown is whether the Mariners would be willing to take the risk of inviting Bradley into their clubhouse culture, which was, by all accounts, very strong in 2009. "That's a swap that makes a lot of sense for both sides," one executive said Friday. Said another: "It would be dead money for dead money."

2. Derek Lowe, Braves (still owed $45 million over the next three years): If the Cubs were intent on trying to make something out of nothing, they could call the Braves and propose this swap. Maybe Lowe, who went 15-10 for the Braves with a 4.67 ERA, would go to Chicago and be a serviceable guy at the back of their rotation. The Braves could use some short-term offensive pop for their lineup, as they wait for the arrival of Jason Heyward, and they could plug Bradley into the middle of their lineup for 100 games, while shedding about $24 million in salary obligation (or close to what they are committing in their three-year deal with Tim Hudson) -- the $45 million owed to Lowe minus the $21 million still owed to Bradley. Again, the Braves would have to consider the question all teams would have to consider about Bradley: Would they want him in their clubhouse?

Some rival officials doubt the Cubs would consider this kind of swap. "Why compound your mistake by taking on another $24 million in debt?" asked one executive.

3. Gary Matthews Jr., Angels (still owed $23 million over the next two years): On paper, it fits. In the real world, one executive says, "There is no way Mike Scioscia would want Bradley on his team."

4. Carlos Lee, Astros (still owed $55.5 million over the next three years): The finances might make some sense for the Astros to consider, but, as one official notes, "Lee is still a really productive player, as bad as his contract is."

5. Barry Zito, Giants (still owed $83 million, including money for a buyout in 2014, over the next four seasons): Zito improved in the second half of this season, but a Zito-Bradley swap would make no sense for the Cubs.

6. Aaron Rowand, Giants (still owed $36 million over the next three seasons): It would be a money-saver for the Giants to deal Rowand for Bradley, and yes, Rowand has not performed up to expectations. But Rowand is still regarded as a decent player and a tremendously positive influence. Whether or not the Giants would consider this would be based entirely on how desperate they are to shed salary obligations.

7. Oliver Perez, Mets (still owed $24 million over the next two seasons): The money might line up, but the Mets would have to be utterly convinced that Perez had no chance of helping them in the next two seasons before considering this deal -- and they would have to know there would be an excellent chance that Bradley would melt down in New York, in the eye of a media storm, just as he did in Chicago. "Can't see the Mets seriously considering that," one rival executive said.

8. Dontrelle Willis, Tigers (still owed $12 million for the last year of his contract): The Tigers would probably love to move Willis, but the Tigers already are loaded with a bunch of corner outfield/DH types, from Carlos Guillen to Magglio Ordonez et al; Bradley doesn't really fit a need for them. They might be better off just eating the Willis contract.

9. Scott Linebrink, White Sox (still owed $10.5 million over the next two years): It would never happen, because Bradley would still be in Chicago.

10. Pat Burrell, Rays (owed $9 million for the last year of his contract): The Rays and Cubs talked about this, but the Cubs would have to make this work financially to meet the strict demands of Tampa Bay -- presumably by eating a large share of what is owed to Bradley, as well as paying Burrell's salary. Unless the Rays get some kind of financial incentive, it would make more sense for them to just move ahead.

Ryan Dempster says if Bradley came back, the other players would give him another chance.

The World Series

Joe Blanton will get the ball in Game 4 for the Phillies. The full expectation is that CC Sabathia will start Game 4 for the Yankees, and he's been lobbying for the opportunity.

The other guys in the Yankees' bullpen must step up to save Mariano Rivera, writes John Harper. The Yankees' hitters must step up to save Rivera, writes Mike Lupica. The strain is beginning to show on Rivera, writes Joel Sherman.

A-Rod is calm despite his oh-fer in this World Series, writes Mike Vaccaro. A-Rod will heat up again, writes Bob Klapisch. Charlie Manuel showed no respect for Andy Pettitte, writes Mike Puma.

Cole Hamels, who starts Game 3, will have to add a pitch -- next year, writes Jim Salisbury. The Phillies are building a legacy of their own, writes Phil Sheridan.

The pitchers are causing a serious power outage in this series, writes Ray Parillo.

The Phillies have not yet considered taking the ailing Greg Dobbs off their roster, writes Andy Martino.

Don't tell Charlie Manuel how to manage the game, writes Rich Hofmann.

The agent for Cliff Lee and A.J. Burnett has had a good World Series, writes Tyler Kepner.

A New Englander has found a home as the Phillies' pitching coach, writes Peter Abraham. Rich Dubee is one of the most underrated pitching coaches in the game.

Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information has an interesting take on the strong performances in Games 1 and 2 of the World Series:

This was the first time in 26 years that the winning starters in Game 1 (Cliff Lee) and Game 2 (A.J. Burnett) each allowed one run or fewer in 7-plus innings pitched -- and the two pitchers were on opposing teams. In other words, it's the first time we've seen a great effort from one starter in Game 1, and a great effort from the opposing team's starter in Game 2.

The last instance: 1983 World Series. John Denny (Phillies) won Game 1; Mike Boddicker (Orioles) won Game 2. Phillies fans don't like to think about that one as they lost three straight at home to close that series.

Overall, this has happened seven times in the past 60 years, and the names on the list are good ones:

	Game 1	Game 2
2009	Cliff Lee, Phillies	A.J. Burnett, Yankees
1983	John Denny, Phillies	Mike Boddicker, Orioles
1969	Mike Cuellar, Orioles	Jerry Koosman, Mets
1968	Bob Gibson, Cardinals	Mickey Lolich, Tigers
1967	Bob Gibson, Cardinals	Jim Lonborg, Red Sox
1951	Dave Koslo, N.Y. Giants	Ed Lopat, Yankees
1949	Allie Reynolds, Yankees	Preacher Roe, Brooklyn Dodgers

Moves, deals and decisions

1. Cito Gaston is coming back as manager of the Jays. The Jays' coaching moves make sense, writes Jeff Blair.

2. The Brewers hired an advance scout.

3. The Astros picked their bench coach and pitching coach, writes Jesus Ortiz.

4. The Giants signed Freddy Sanchez to a two-year deal.

5. The Mariners hired a new third-base coach, as Geoff Baker writes.

6. Carlos Garcia is replacing Perry Hill on the Pirates' coaching staff, writes Chuck Finder.

The McCourts

The letters to the editor of the Los Angeles Times are loaded with commentary about the fracture in the Dodgers' front office; they want to see a sale.

Other stuff

• Joe Mauer chatted with Pete Rose for about 30 minutes, writes Charley Walters.

• The Ricketts took the reins of the Cubs with a promise, writes Gordon Wittenmyer. Tom Ricketts says he will value winning above all else, while renovating Wrigley Field, writes Dave Roeder.

Finally, some fans own the Cubs, writes Rick Morrissey.

• Carl Crawford was voted the best left fielder in the game.

• Randy St. Claire sees a lot of potential in the Marlins' pitching staff, writes Juan Rodriguez.

• The Tigers are hoping Casper Wells progresses, writes Lynn Henning.

• Tony Pena is ready to manage again, writes Bob Dutton.

• Ozzie Guillen is minding his manners, writes Dave van Dyck.

• Curtis Granderson won the man of the year award bestowed by the players' association.