Charlotte Chase chances

Friday, October 16, 2009 | Print Entry

Last week's statistical breakdown of the Chasers' chances at Auto Club Speedway generated a generally positive response from Insider readers. We picked Jimmie Johnson to win it, and he didn't disappoint. This got me thinking about doing another breakdown for this weekend's race. (Not to mention, it's been raining like the seventh book of Genesis at the racetrack, so I had time to do the math.) Let's run the numbers, shall we?

Like last week, chances to win are based on career stats, Driver Rating and how Chasers did when they last raced at the track. (In this case, the drivers last raced at Lowe's back on Memorial Day.) Current points ranking is in parentheses.

Before you start raising hell about Juan Pablo Montoya being ranked ahead of Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon, keep in mind that a career-best hot streak always blows away numerical trends. Last week, Montoya had the lowest average finish and Driver Rating of the 12 Chasers headed into Sunday's race. He led 78 laps and finished third.

Best Chance at Lowe's
Driver Starts Wins Top-10s Avg. Finish May 25* Driver Rating**
Jimmie Johnson (1) 16 5 12 9.1 13th 116.6
Kasey Kahne (11) 11 3 6 12.4 7th 99.5
Mark Martin (2) 49 4 22 15.9 17th 91.7
Carl Edwards (8) 9 0 7 10.0 4th 90.7
Juan Montoya (3) 5 0 1 27.4 8th 58.0
Tony Stewart (4) 21 1 11 13.3 19th 84.1
Jeff Gordon (5) 33 5 18 16.1 14th 85.6
Greg Biffle (7) 13 0 5 18.4 20th 88.8
Denny Hamlin (9) 8 0 3 15.6 11th 80.4
Ryan Newman (10) 17 0 6 20.7 2nd 78.5
Kurt Busch (6) 18 0 3 21.6 34th 79.8
Brian Vickers (12) 11 0 3 22.5 5th 91.7

* Coca-Cola 600, won by non-Chaser David Reutimann
** Driver Rating has been compiled by NASCAR since 2005

Keep Up If You Can

My e-mail and Twitter inboxes continue to be filled with complaints from fans about the Chase format. Most of them claim that the racing and points battles were much better back in the day.

Sorry, folks, but you're still wrong.

Clearly my blog two Mondays ago wasn't enough to convince you, so perhaps yet another look at the numbers will. During Thursday's ark-worthy day at the racetrack, I did some digit-smashing with NASCAR's Driver Rating czar, Mike Forde. What he helped me realize is that this year's championship contenders are setting a pace that would make a half-dozen Usain Bolts jealous.

Coming into this year, the best average finish after the first four races of the Chase was 4.3, accomplished by Kurt Busch in 2004 and Jimmie Johnson last year. That's two noteworthy feats in five years. This year, however, three drivers have topped that. Johnson has averaged a 3.8, while Mark Martin and Juan Pablo Montoya have both averaged 3.5. Those three drivers have also posted three of the top five Driver Ratings NASCAR has ever had after four Chase races.

Top Chase Driver Ratings (After 4 Races)
Driver Rating Year
Jimmie Johnson 133.4 2009
Juan Pablo Montoya 123.8 2009
Jimmie Johnson 114.4 2008
Mark Martin 113.0 2009
Tony Stewart 109.6 2005

If you want to know exactly how the Driver Rating is calculated, go here. But I can spare you the migraine by stating that anything above 100 is good, above 110 is very good and above 130 is ridonkulous.

Also, five of this year's 12 Chase drivers have maintained an average running position (where they were at the end of every race lap) of better than 10. The previous high was in 2005, when only Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth averaged 10 or better.

The "Why We Call Richard Petty 'The King'" Fact Of The Week

Instead of our usual statistical breakdown of RP's greatness, this week we have a story.

"His Royal Fastness" spent the weeks leading up to Wednesday's NASCAR Hall of Fame announcement deflecting questions about the possibility of actually being in the inaugural group. He also nearly single-handedly started the movement to ensure that that group was made up entirely of moonshiners and stock car pioneers.

But when the announcement became official (from all indications, Petty's selection was probably unanimous), his guard came down, and no one was more visibly excited than The King. He blew into the room after the announcement was made and, like he's always done, fulfilled every interview request and signed every autograph that was asked of him.

As the minutes, then hours, dragged on, the room emptied. The media had packed up and the stage was being taken down. The voters, fellow honorees and various racing dignitaries had all left. The last man standing, literally, was Richard Petty. He asked those left in the room if they had everything they needed. Once assured that they were all set, he smiled and strolled out of the ballroom hand-in-hand with wife Lynda, the only person with a grin larger than his own.

All hail The King.

Racing With The Stars

NASCAR has recruited a group of star-types to participate in its Celebrity Chase Tracker, a fantasy racing league in which non-racers predict the order of finish for the 12 Chase drivers, as well as each race's winner. After four races the leader is -- grab your Walkman and air guitar -- Foreigner. That's right, the band Foreigner.

As we told you last week, the '80s hit-makers behind tunes like "Feels Like The First Time" and "Juke Box Hero" shot their latest music video during prerace ceremonies at the Auto Club Speedway. Now they lead a 22-participant field that includes everyone from Randy Moss to Miss USA Kristen Dalton.

You know things have officially gotten out of hand when government officials are referencing Ricky Bobby. But that's exactly what U.S. Senator Kay Hagan, currently 12th in the Chase Tracker standings, did when she issued a news release stating, "I'm in this to win because ... if you ain't first, you're last."

For Your Viewing Pleasure

If it rains all weekend at Charlotte (and it looks like it might), and you get sick of watching the MLB playoffs or college football or the NFL, you can always watch these fake stop-motion NASCAR races done with Legos and die-cast cars. Seriously, there are dozens of them. You folks over at Industrial Light and Magic can exhale. Your special-effects jobs are safe.

For Your Viewing Pleasure II

Female NASCAR fans have been all a-Twitter over Carl Edwards's ESPN The Magazine Body Issue cover shot. He figures he signed at least a dozen of them at Wednesday's Roush Fenway Racing open house. "There were a lot of questions before people actually saw it, like, 'Dude, were you really naked?'" Edwards said. "But once it came out and everyone saw what it was really about, the reaction has been very cool."

Two other NASCAR drivers were also featured, albeit with one-shot appearances -- Mark Martin's 50-year-old eyes and Kenny Schrader's half-thumb, cut off by the alternator belt on a NASCAR Truck back in '96. "They said it was going to be a Body Issue," Schrader joked Tuesday night. "Apparently they meant ugly, old, mangled bodies, too."

Children of the Corn

The Roush Fenway open house was just one of dozens of events packed into the always crowded Charlotte Race Week calendar, from Wednesday night's Bail and Jail fundraiser to a slew of Friday open houses, including the Indy Car/NASCAR crossover event at Penske Racing.

Perhaps the most creative attempt to attract race fans, however, belonged to the Aw Shucks Corn Maze in nearby Monroe, N.C. For all intents and purposes, it looked like just another challenge from "Survivor." (Trust me. My 4-year-old daughter dragged me through it earlier this week.) But it's not until you see the overhead shot of the maze that the NASCAR connection becomes apparent.

It's impressive, although I'm not sure who they are trying to sell tickets to, unless you count crop dusters, crows or Balloon Boy.


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