Or ... how 20th-ranked, undefeated Michigan went from being a 1-point favorite over 1-3 Michigan State to being a 2.5-point underdog.
I had a chat with Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com the other day. Sal, as you know, sends me the info for the BALLS Index every week. He's one of those math nerds who could probably be running a derivatives shop on Wall Street if he didn't want to put his smarts into sports betting.
We were talking about the big line moves in college football this week and two things occurred to me: (1) If you're a square who bets football games casually every weekend, you might see the point spread as a static thing. If LSU is favored by 3 over Georgia, you accept that number and decide whether it's the right bet for you. (2) Squares ignore mid-level college games.
But wise guys see the numbers as malleable. They don't just take what the bookmakers post. Instead they use their money to hopefully make more money, by moving the line to a place where they think it's a worthwhile bet. And when it comes to the mid-level games that don't get any air-time, they bet in bulk.
Take a look at the big line movers below for some examples of what I'm talking about:
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Chad Millman
