Sometime Tuesday morning, the reality of Billy Wagner's circumstances broadsided him. Regardless of whether he stayed with the Mets or not, Wagner almost certainly was going to be offered arbitration, a factor that probably will hang on his free agency like a ball and chain. So, with almost nothing to lose, he headed to Boston for a chance to pitch in the World Series for the first time.
Wagner has a lot to gain. If he keeps throwing between 93 and 95 mph, keeps striking out hitters and dominates into October, some team might invest a multiyear deal in him without blinking, unconcerned about his Type A free-agent status and the high draft pick it will have to sacrifice.
But if his work load is limited and his results are mixed -- and given that he is just a year removed from reconstructive elbow surgery, this is a distinct possibility -- it's possible he will be this winter's version of
Juan Cruz, with the offers to him greatly affected by the high compensation draft pick that will be tied to him if Boston offers him arbitration, as expected.
You figure Wagner will be looking for at least two years and $15 million to $16 million. So let's play this out, among the 29 teams aside from the Red Sox.
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Buster Olney
