Eight reasons for Halladay to be a Phillie
Thursday, July 23, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry
Eight great reasons the Blue Jays and Phillies should work out a Roy Halladay trade:
- Maximizing value: Halladay will have very high trade value for the Jays right up until 4 p.m. on July 31. At precisely 4:01, his trade value will plummet, largely because of his impending free agency. Halladay intends to go to a winning team and winning situation, and there are no indications that he would hold up a proposed trade before the deadline with some contract demands. If the Jays work out a deal to send him to Philadelphia, Halladay seemingly would go along with it without complication.
But if Halladay is not traded as of 4:01 p.m. in eight days, he will impact just one pennant race rather than two. And if he's not traded until the offseason, his contract situation will become a much greater concern for any team interested in acquiring him. We saw the salaries for free agents plummet during the winter of 2008-09, at least for players not named Teixeira or Sabathia or Burnett or Lowe, and the players' association is sensitive to this. Halladay is one of the few players who possess real negotiating leverage and still can land a huge contract. It could be that if Halladay remains untraded into the winter, he'll feel some pressure from within the union to use that leverage. In time, he could ask for an extension as a condition for him to agree to a trade, in the way that Johan Santana did before he extracted a $137.5 million deal out of the Mets.
Right now, interested teams are frothing over Halladay because he's an elite pitcher who has only about $22 million in salary obligation left on his deal. If the Jays don't trade Halladay before the deadline and the pitcher's stance changes during the offseason -- if Halladay, at age 32, starts to look for a four-year or five-year extension for $20 million to $22 million a year, the same kind of salary for which CC Sabathia signed -- it will completely undercut his trade value. If the Blue Jays intend to trade Halladay, they need to do so right now.
"Without a doubt," a rival executive said. "If they don't do it now, there are a lot of factors that could hurt his value down the road -- an injury, his free agency, maybe some contract demands. If you want to maximize his trade value, you have to trade him now."
- Saving the Philly staff: The addition of Halladay might inoculate the Phillies against the thing most likely to take them down. Cole Hamels threw 262.1 innings in 2008, and after experiencing some elbow trouble in the spring, he has a 4.72 ERA this season while Philadelphia's starting pitchers rank 25th in the majors in ERA.
In short, this rotation is functional. If, however, Hamels were to go down with some kind of injury -- and given his history, that is a legitimate concern -- the Phillies would have a serious problem, particularly during the postseason. With Halladay, the Phillies' rotation would be sturdily anchored, with or without Hamels.
- The waiver issue: Unlike a lot of players, Halladay won't get through waivers if the Blue Jays place him there in August. The Yankees would place a claim on him, and so would the Red Sox. So would the Dodgers, Brewers, Mets, Phillies and maybe the Rays, Rangers and Angels. And Toronto's trade leverage would be reduced dramatically.
To see Buster Olney's other reasons for the Halladay deal, plus extensive rumors, notes and analysis from around MLB, you must be an ESPN Insider. 
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Buster Olney
