Eight great reasons the Blue Jays and Phillies should work out a Roy Halladay trade:
- Maximizing value: Halladay will have very high trade value for the Jays right up until 4 p.m. on July 31. At precisely 4:01, his trade value will plummet, largely because of his impending free agency. Halladay intends to go to a winning team and winning situation, and there are no indications that he would hold up a proposed trade before the deadline with some contract demands. If the Jays work out a deal to send him to Philadelphia, Halladay seemingly would go along with it without complication.
But if Halladay is not traded as of 4:01 p.m. in eight days, he will impact just one pennant race rather than two. And if he's not traded until the offseason, his contract situation will become a much greater concern for any team interested in acquiring him. We saw the salaries for free agents plummet during the winter of 2008-09, at least for players not named Teixeira or Sabathia or Burnett or Lowe, and the players' association is sensitive to this. Halladay is one of the few players who possess real negotiating leverage and still can land a huge contract. It could be that if Halladay remains untraded into the winter, he'll feel some pressure from within the union to use that leverage. In time, he could ask for an extension as a condition for him to agree to a trade, in the way that Johan Santana did before he extracted a $137.5 million deal out of the Mets.
Right now, interested teams are frothing over Halladay because he's an elite pitcher who has only about $22 million in salary obligation left on his deal. If the Jays don't trade Halladay before the deadline and the pitcher's stance changes during the offseason -- if Halladay, at age 32, starts to look for a four-year or five-year extension for $20 million to $22 million a year, the same kind of salary for which CC Sabathia signed -- it will completely undercut his trade value. If the Blue Jays intend to trade Halladay, they need to do so right now.
"Without a doubt," a rival executive said. "If they don't do it now, there are a lot of factors that could hurt his value down the road -- an injury, his free agency, maybe some contract demands. If you want to maximize his trade value, you have to trade him now."
- Saving the Philly staff: The addition of Halladay might inoculate the Phillies against the thing most likely to take them down. Cole Hamels threw 262.1 innings in 2008, and after experiencing some elbow trouble in the spring, he has a 4.72 ERA this season while Philadelphia's starting pitchers rank 25th in the majors in ERA.
In short, this rotation is functional. If, however, Hamels were to go down with some kind of injury -- and given his history, that is a legitimate concern -- the Phillies would have a serious problem, particularly during the postseason. With Halladay, the Phillies' rotation would be sturdily anchored, with or without Hamels.
- The waiver issue: Unlike a lot of players, Halladay won't get through waivers if the Blue Jays place him there in August. The Yankees would place a claim on him, and so would the Red Sox. So would the Dodgers, Brewers, Mets, Phillies and maybe the Rays, Rangers and Angels. And Toronto's trade leverage would be reduced dramatically.
To see Buster Olney's other reasons for the Halladay deal, plus extensive rumors, notes and analysis from around MLB, you must be an ESPN Insider. 
- The pieces fit: The Phillies are the best possible trade partner for the Jays at this time. Toronto could make a deal with the Dodgers, in theory, but with L.A. understandably unwilling to part with Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, the Dodgers don't have elite young pitching to deal. The Cardinals are reluctant to deal some of their best young players, as are the Rays. The Red Sox and Yankees would love to have Halladay, but they would be reluctant to fork over the huge package of prospects that the Jays would demand to make a Halladay trade in the division.
The Cubs don't have much to offer. The Brewers have excellent young position prospects but not many refined pitching prospects. In any event, Milwaukee might have difficulty making a prospect-for-veteran-superstar trade two years in a row; the Brewers need their farm system to be their lifeblood. The Phillies have the motivation and prospects to make the trade, and the Jays probably will struggle to make a better deal than they can make with Philadelphia right now.
- Making Hamels better: Halladay could help make Hamels even better than he is. Halladay's workout regimen is legendary, and you hear stories from guys who played with the Blue Jays about how Halladay's approach rubbed off on them. He was a constant reminder to them of how they could be better, both in their preparation and in their conditioning, and even in how they would conduct themselves.
Halladay like a pacesetter on a track team who makes everybody behind him run better, faster and more efficiently. Hamels could only benefit from having him as a teammate, in the same way that A.J. Burnett and others benefited.
- Keeping the window open: The Phillies are built to win right now. Jimmy Rollins is 30 years old and signed through 2010, with an option for 2011, and he might soon start on the downslope of his career if he hasn't already. Chase Utley is in the prime of his career. Ryan Howard is signed through 2011 and is in the prime of his career. Brad Lidge is in the prime of his career, as is Hamels. Halladay would help them maximize what this group of Phillies can accomplish. In two years, the window of opportunity for this group of players to win championships may well be closed.
- A legacy: The Phillies can create the kind of legacy that no Philadelphia sports franchise has had since the days of Connie Mack. At least a couple of folks within the Phillies organization privately argue that the Phillies don't need to trade for Halladay, that the team can ride last year's success for a while. Even without Halladay, one executive argues, these Phillies are good enough to contend for a title in 2009, and this is accurate. But with Halladay, the Phillies could be a buzz saw for at least the next 15 months and could carve out a special place in the hearts of a sports-crazed city. The Phillies' front office should consider how the steady interest in the Red Sox has exploded across the U.S. in the aftermath of Boston's championships. Phillies Nation, perhaps?
- Because he's Roy Halladay: The Phillies should overpay for Halladay because he's great in every way. He's a hard worker, he would fit in Citizens Bank Park because he generates a lot of ground balls and a lot of missed swings, he has a mulelike ability to block out distractions -- and he's nothing less than one of the best pitchers on the planet. Pitchers such as Halladay come along maybe twice or thrice in a generation; pitchers who have the perfect mix of mound dominance and work ethic and team ethic. He's perfect for the Phillies, right now, and if the Jays know they have to trade Halladay before he becomes a free agent in 2010, the Phillies are the perfect trade partner for them, right now.
The Blue Jays scouted the Phillies' top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, on Wednesday night. A Halladay deal would start a major salary dump, writes Richard Griffin.
Other players could be added to a Halladay deal, writes Bob Elliott.
The LaRoche deal
The Pirates will take an extended look at Steve Pearce.
Adam LaRoche is leaving the Pirates with mixed emotions, Dejan Kovacevic writes. The Red Sox might send owner John Henry's private plane to get LaRoche into a Boston uniform as soon as possible, considering how the team's offense is performing. Boston has lost five straight games and counting, and has fallen two games behind the Yankees in the AL East. The LaRoche deal was a baby step, writes Sean McAdam.
The Red Sox's problems
It seems the U.S.S. Red Sox is taking on water, and the front office is working frantically to plug the leak. LaRoche may or may not help. He typically is a strong second-half player and is the type of hitter who can put a team on his back for a week or two, but he also is known to be sensitive and doesn't like criticism. Maybe he'll get on a serious roll, maybe not. Maybe he'll help the Red Sox, maybe not.
But no great solutions for the Red Sox exist on the market, either. They could acquire Victor Martinez, but they would have to overpay to get him and would have to give up their most valued asset, young pitching. They could trade for Matt Holliday, but although Holliday has had some good games this week, he hasn't had a good season, and the Red Sox couldn't feel 100 percent confident that he would pay off for them. And defensively, he would be a square peg in a round hole for Boston, because he would have to play right field and limit Jason Bay to playing left.
The Red Sox are like the Cubs in this way: Simply put, the guys who are playing for them simply must perform better.
J.D. Drew is among those Red Sox hitters buried in a slump, Adam Kilgore writes.
Boston's maneuvering sets it up for something big, writes Nick Cafardo, who wonders whether the Red Sox might go after Halladay. Mark Kotsay appears to be the odd man out.
Elsewhere ...
In the aftermath of the Julio Lugo-Chris Duncan trade, Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan thinks someone wanted his son out of St. Louis, Derrick Goold writes. The younger Duncan should be happy now, Bernie Miklasz writes.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Mets GM Omar Minaya says his organization will be a buyer, and not a seller, as the trade deadline nears. If anybody can find an example when a New York baseball general manager declared his team to be a seller at the deadline in the past 15 years, you win a free toaster. This falls under the category of things that will never be said aloud, just as you'll never hear a male driver admit that he's lost or a U.S. senator acknowledge that he panders for votes. The GMs of the New York baseball teams are not allowed to admit publicly that all hope is lost.
2. The job of Mets vice president of player development Tony Bernazard is safe for now. Minaya should fire Bernazard, writes Bill Madden. The Mets' GM sort of addressed the Bernazard situation.
3. The Brewers' trade options appear limited.
4. The expectation is that the Orioles' Chris Tillman, one of the game's best pitching prospects, will be called up sometime next week. Rich Hill's future will be decided later this week; he looked awful against the Yankees earlier this week.
5. The Mariners, struggling to address the back end of their rotation, will try pitching Ryan Rowland-Smith.
6. The Blue Jays went on a home run binge, writes Robert MacLeod.
7. The Rays are looking at many options.
8. The Angels demoted a pitcher who has done a nice job for them.
Dings and dents
1. Vicente Padilla was one of the Rangers hit by the flu, Drew Davison writes.
2. Felipe Lopez got hurt.
3. Jordan Zimmermann landed on the disabled list.
4. Troy Glaus was scratched thanks to back spasms.
5. Manny Corpas will be out until September, which will only heighten the Rockies' need for relief help. The Rockies are looking at Mike Timlin.
6. Jose Guillen went to the hospital.
7. Manny Ramirez's hand is sore, but that didn't stop him from delivering a huge hit by the end of Wednesday night. From Dylan Hernandez's story, a quote from Dusty Baker: "That's the stuff you see out of Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron. You go home seeing what you came to see."
Wednesday's games
1. The Yankees are on a serious roll, George King writes.
2. The Rangers racked up a sweep against the Red Sox, even though several folks in the Texas clubhouse are fighting illness, Jeff Wilson writes.
3. You can't stop the Astros, you can only hope to contain them. They're now within a game of first place in the NL Central after they walked off with a win over the Cardinals. It just gets better and better for the Astros, writes Richard Justice.
4. Felix Hernandez hoisted the Mariners onto his shoulders again, writes Larry Stone.
5. The Orioles have come out stumbling in the second half, writes Jeff Zrebiec.
6. Todd Helton and the Rockies had another big day and extended their lead over the Giants in the wild-card race.
7. The Phillies' winning streak is over, Ray Parrillo writes.
8. The Royals were wrecked again, Bob Dutton writes.
9. Mistakes cost the Rays, Marc Topkin writes.
10. Ricky Nolasco did what he always seems to do in the second half, Clark Spencer writes. Marlins president Larry Beinfest wants to see more consistency in the Florida offense.
11. The Angels showed off some serious firepower in K.C., Mike DiGiovanna writes.
12. Carl Pavano might not have helped his chances for being traded against the Blue Jays, who hammered him.
13. The Athletics are scoring runs now the way that the Oakland front office hoped that they would all season.
14. The Giants are free-falling, Henry Schulman writes.
15. Why Jair Jurrjens of the Braves beat the Giants, from Albert Larcada of ESPN Statistics & Information:
A. Dominant fastball: The Giants were 1-for-15 with five strikeouts against it, and 74 percent of his fastballs were strikes.
B. He got hitters out on pitches away. Giants hitters were 1-for-16 with seven strikeouts on pitches outside.
C. Left-handed batters were 0-for-17 with six strikeouts.
D. Giants hitters chased pitches out of the zone, going 0-for-9 with six strikeouts on pitches outside.
The patience index
These hitters took the most pitches during Wednesday's games:
From the Cape
A pitcher who throws for Brewster reminded Greg Schimmel of Tim Lincecum:
Brewster right-handed reliever Tyler Thornburg from Charleston Southern was also interesting to watch. I caught Thornburg throw during the first week of the season, but hadn't seen him since then before Wednesday night. Thornburg is undersized at 5'11" 176, and he throws with big-time effort. He gets good extension and has a hitch in his motion before he throws straight over the top. I hesitate to make this comparison, as his mechanics are not as exaggerated and his stuff is not as good, but Thornburg evokes a faint comparison to Tim Lincecum. But Thornburg's command is not as good, he doesn't throw as hard and his curveball doesn't break as much. Still, Thornburg's fastball sat in the 93-94 mph range, and his 77 mph curveball had very good overhand break. He also showed a decent changeup with some tailing action in on right-handed hitters. Thornburg impressed me more than he did the last time I saw him when his curveball wasn't working for him, but with his command he is kind of an adventure every time out.
Other stuff
• Barry Zito still struggles under the strain of $126 million in expectations.
• Bobby Abreu has proved to be one of the best offseason signings.
• It's official: The Orioles are leaving Fort Lauderdale, Sarah Talalay writes.
• K.C. GM Dayton Moore has no doubt that the Royals will be a long-term success.
• The Red Sox will retire Jim Rice's uniform next week.
• Here is the location of the strikes called on an Arizona rookie in the ninth inning Wednesday. Very ugly.
• Brad Lidge is still searching for consistency, writes Bob Ford. Chad Durbin's struggles have stretched into this season, Marcus Hayes writes.
• Dan Haren's career-high workload doesn't concern him, Nick Piecoro writes.
• Don Mattingly's son was arrested. How incredibly sad.
PED Zone
Harmon Killebrew regards Hank Aaron as the home run king, Patrick Reusse writes.
Buster Olney
