ESPN Buster Olney Blog

Rob Johnson got the assignment to catch Felix Hernandez's last start, and during the course of the game Saturday night in Los Angeles, Johnson and umpire Chuck Meriwether marveled together about the movement on Hernandez's stuff, the two chortling from pitch to pitch, as King Felix's fastball cut and sank, as his curveball broke over the plate.

"Both of us were like, 'This is nasty,'" Johnson said.

The frightening thing for hitters is that Hernandez himself is just beginning to understand how good his stuff is and how to use it. "The conviction in his pitches has gotten better," Johnson said. "He really believes in what he's throwing. He's getting ahead in the count, and he can get ahead with all four pitches."

Johnson thinks it's not a coincidence that this elevation of performance took place during interleague play. Hernandez has had to hit, and from the vantage point of the batter's box, he's been able to see how difficult it is to hit a decent fastball -- "And these are guys who don't throw as hard [as Hernandez] and don't have as much movement as he does," Johnson said.

Hernandez held the Dodgers to four hits and a run in eight innings Saturday, and in five starts in June, he surrendered a total of four earned runs, using all of his pitches in every part of the ball-strike count. During an at-bat by Juan Pierre on Saturday, Hernandez threw a curveball for a strike, a changeup, a sinker down and away, and a slider inside. Pierre grounded out. As the game went along, Johnson said, the Dodgers' hitters had little sense of what Hernandez was going to throw.

The economy has broadsided a lot of businesses, including baseball, and as the sport comes out of the steroids era and teams are being more frugal, a lot of veteran players have seen the size of contract offers decline. Bobby Abreu made $16 million in 2008, and after having a good season, his base salary for 2009 is $5 million.

But so long as Hernandez remains healthy, he will continue to climb toward what figures to be a monster contract. He still is just 23 years old, and he is on track to become a free agent after the 2011 season. CC Sabathia got a six-year, $161 million contract when he was 28 years old. Johan Santana got his record deal when he was 28 years old.

Just imagine what the Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox or Cubs might be willing to pay Hernandez as a healthy, elite pitcher at age 25. The economy will have no effect on a 25-year-old who can throw two types of fastballs, his curve and his changeup for strikes at any point in the ball-strike count, with conviction and dominance.

Red smoke signals

The Reds have been fishing around for a right-handed hitter for weeks, and they continue to look around, rival executives say. But they also are sending signals they don't have a lot of money with which to make a deal, which leaves them in a bind. They could try to make a dollar-for-dollar trade -- trading one player for another player with a similar salary -- but it might be difficult for them to actually upgrade their lineup that way. They could ask other teams to absorb some salary of a player like Jermaine Dye or Matt Holliday, but that would require the Reds to give up a larger package of young talent, something they're reluctant to do. No, in the end, the Reds probably will be left with the choice of busting their budget to take a chance on someone like Dye or Holliday, or making marginal upgrades.

The Reds are definitely looking, writes John Fay. Paul Daugherty wonders whether the Reds can be bold. As Fay mentions, Josh Willingham makes sense for the Reds, but he makes sense for a lot of other teams as well, including the Mets.

The Mighty Tim

Tim Lincecum's shutout of the Cardinals might rank as the best outing of his career, writes Henry Schulman -- and I would defer to Schulman on this, because he's seen most of Lincecum's starts in person. Watching from afar, what was so striking about Lincecum's outing was how he pitched mostly in the lower half of the strike zone, and then every so often, when he elevated his fastball deeper in the ball-strike count, the St. Louis hitters responded with powerless swings and easy fly balls. He completely controlled the game. Right now, on June 30, 2009, Lincecum is the King of the Mountain among starting pitchers in the majors.

Lincecum is really, really good, Tony La Russa says.

From Henry Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information, why Lincecum won:
A) He didn't allow a hit when behind in the count (0-for-7). Opposing hitters were batting .460 with Lincecum behind coming into the game.
B) Seven of his eight strikeouts were swinging.
C) His fastball averaged 94 mph, 1.4 mph faster than his season average.
D) He didn't throw more than 13 pitches in any inning.

Meanwhile, the day is coming when a Giants decision regarding Lincecum is going to cost them in a big way, writes Andrew Baggarly.

Moves, deals and decisions

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