ESPN Buster Olney Blog

Stephen Strasburg's college coach was a pretty good hitter, having accumulated 3,141 hits, a .338 lifetime batting average and a plaque in Baseball's Hall of Fame. But at no point during Strasburg's recently completed junior season was Tony Gwynn, the San Diego State baseball coach, ever tempted to step into the batter's box against the guy who will be picked No. 1 in the draft tonight.

"Heck, no," Gwynn said Monday night, chuckling in his self-deprecating manner. "I wasn't sure I could get out of the way."

Even though Strasburg's fastball was consistently clocked in the range of 98-103 mph all year and he posted stunning numbers, Gwynn repeatedly talked about all that Strasburg needed to learn and how much growing he had to do. Truth be told, Gwynn was trying to somehow deflate some of the pressure created by the mounting media attention on Strasburg. Gwynn actually thinks Strasburg is exceptional.

Gwynn had 10,232 plate appearances in his career, against hundreds of different pitchers, and he said he cannot think of a pitcher who is quite like Strasburg. A pitcher who throws so hard and throws all of his secondary pitches for strikes, and whose fastball has great movement.

"He's 6-foot-4 and 220, and he's really athletic," Gwynn said. "Nobody has really gotten a chance to see that. His delivery is simple, repeatable and downhill. For being 20-years-old, he's pretty polished."

Gwynn said he believes Strasburg still needs to work on his composure. "But everybody goes through things like that," Gwynn said. "He's going to have days when he's going to get hit around; everybody goes through that."

Gwynn's advice to Strasburg, as he prepares to go through negotiations with the Nationals, has been to make sure he does what he wants to do. Gwynn told Strasburg to make sure his dreams and goals don't get swept up in the process, and the negotiations may well turn out to be complicated and protracted.

Scott Boras, Strasburg's advisor, is said to be seeking Daisuke Matsuzaka-type money, but in the end the Nationals should ignore all that. It's an apples and oranges equation. Strasburg is regarded as the best pitching prospect ever, but Matsuzaka had pitched professionally for almost a decade. He was one of the best pitchers in Japan for years, and faced the likes of Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter and others in the World Baseball Classic.

No, the Nationals shouldn't even bother factoring Boras's presence into the negotiations. A whole lot of executives and agents believe that the Nationals -- who are under pressure to sign Strasburg -- should make an aggressive, record-setting offer right out of the gate, maybe even today. They should make it clear to Strasburg, with that initial bid, how much they value him. Then, they just sit on it, unmoved, right through the Aug. 15 deadline.

The all-time record contract for any pitcher is $10.5 million, signed by Mark Prior nine years ago.

"If I were the Nationals, I'd offer him $11 million right away," one baseball official said, "and make that my best and first and only offer."

Other scouts and executives think the initial number should be closer to $15 million, to distinguish the offer from the Prior deal, and some suggest an offer as high as $20 million. Whatever the offer, it needs to be large enough for Strasburg and his family to know -- no matter what Boras is telling them -- that they have an incredible opportunity.

"If a college junior can walk away from that kind of money, well, then you really wouldn't have any kind of regrets, if you were the Nationals," a GM said last week. "You would be offering to set a record, and if a record-setting offer is not large enough, there's not a lot more you can do."

At some point while Boras pushes for the big numbers, his arguments will be seen in this context: The most recent $20 million deal doled out by Washington went to Adam Dunn, who has multiple seasons hitting 40 homers a year in the big leagues. Strasburg has yet to throw a pitch in professional baseball.

The negotiations between the Nationals and Strasburg could result in a record, writes Dave Sheinin. Strasburg is the right guy to take, if the price is right, writes Thomas Boswell.

The Nationals' second pick in the draft, at No. 10 overall, could be telling, writes Ben Goessling.

Elsewhere in the draft

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