The economy T-boned the free-agent market this winter, seemingly at 100 mph, and this was the major reason why established players -- guys who had been putting up numbers for years -- were getting one- and two-year offers rather than offers of three or four years.
But there has been another underlying factor in play, illuminated by
Alex Rodriguez's circumstances: Major league executives are taking a very different look at age in this time of more stringent drug testing. Thirty-two years old is becoming the new 36, and 29 years old is the new 31.
Over two decades, the assumption was made that modern-day players were much more capable than previous generations of being highly productive into their late 30s, and perhaps even into their 40s. The nutrition and training was better, for certain, and players took better care of themselves, working out year-round.
Barry Bonds slammed 73 homers at age 36, and he would hit more homers after his 35th birthday than
Roger Maris hit in his entire career.
Roger Clemens won a Cy Young Award at age 38, and again at age 41.
Mark McGwire clubbed 135 homers over two years, when he was 34 and then 35.
And for that, they were rewarded -- McGwire made $11 million at age 37, and Bonds made $134 million in salary after his 35th birthday, and Clemens earned about $54 million
in his 40s.
Each of those players worked very hard. They took care of themselves. And -- this is the X-factor -- they appear to have benefited greatly from the use of performance-enhancing drugs.
Rodriguez was 32 when he signed his 10-year, $275 million extension. Yankees officials, like those of other teams, negotiated under the presumption that Rodriguez had an excellent chance of being a highly productive player well into his 30s and early 40s. What they did not know at the time was that Rodriguez's past production was built, in part, on performance-enhancing drugs.
And in the 18 months since that deal was negotiated, there has been a dramatic evolution in thinking. You would be hard-pressed to find executives who would now presume that a player is going to maintain a high level of production at age 39, let alone at age 42, which is how old Rodriguez will be in the last year of his contract.
Some executives will tell you privately that they feel duped for giving out long-term deals to aging players who they now believe extended their careers by taking steroids. Other executives will tell you that they just feel like the heavy drug use was a product of the times.
But whether they're angry or circumspect about what happened in the past, they are almost certainly better informed, and it seems that the days of a player well into his 30s getting a five- or six-year deal could be over. There will be a new presumption that most players are going to begin regressing in their early to mid-30s.
Mark Teixeira signed his eight-year deal at 28 years old, and
CC Sabathia got his seven-year deal at 28. If Teixeira had happened to be 31 this winter, he probably wouldn't have gotten anything close to the eight-year, $180 million contract that he received.
Baseball officials have stopped believing that time stands still for players. Times have changed.
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Buster Olney
