Numbers tell the tale
Sunday, January 25, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry
Summers belong mostly to the scouts. That is the time of year when they have their greatest influence, when they are the eyes and ears for their organization, when they see the day-to-day changes and adjustments, when they see that an arm angle has dropped or that a swing has been shortened.
They notice that a veteran pitcher has stopped throwing his splitter, a sign of elbow trouble, and they provide the latest information on a player-manager feud and how it might lead to a trade. On July 31, an awful one-game grade from a scout can kill a trade proposal, and a strong grade can drive a deal across the finish line.
But the winters, on the other hand, have become a domain of numbers. Scouting reports are valued, for sure, but in November and December and January, statistics have an even greater influence in player evaluations, because they are immovable points of reference. You can talk all you want about a kid's leadership ability, but in a conference room in the dead of winter, what stares everybody in the face is the .312 on-base percentage. In the winter, more than at any time during the calendar year, you are what the numbers say you are.
I've been working on various projects over the past month and ran across these numbers, and this is what they say:
1. The Indians' Shin-Soo Choo is one of the most dangerous hitters in the big leagues against right-handed pitchers. Consider that last season, he posted a .992 OPS against righties, a number that placed him in the same class as Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez. He had 24 doubles and 11 homers in 240 at-bats against right-handers, and was a big part of the reason why the Indians' offense managed to finish seventh in the majors in runs last season despite limited help from Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez.
2. Even if you include pitchers, Andruw Jones is one of the worst hitters in the majors against right-handed pitching. He had an OPS of .436 in 2008 against righties, with one homer in 136 at-bats. That was a lower OPS than that of hitting immortals Tim Lincecum, Aaron Cook and Matt Cain.
3. The majors' best pitcher against No. 3 hitters -- that is, guys who batted third in the opposing lineup -- last season was Jesse Litsch of the Toronto Blue Jays. Opposing No. 3 hitters managed to hit just .154 against him.
4. The most difficult pitcher in the majors against whom to square the baseball, of anybody who threw 40 or more innings, was Oakland's Joey Devine. Opponents mustered a .170 slugging percentage against him, with only three doubles, no triples and no homers in 45.2 innings.
5. Among catchers with 300 or more plate appearances last season, Jason Varitek ranked 21st of 25 in OPS. Which goes a long way toward explaining why the Red Sox have taken such a hard line in their negotiations with him this winter.
6. The guy who ranked fifth in the majors in OPS against left-handed pitchers remains unsigned -- Ty Wigginton, who absolutely hammered lefties in 2008, posting a .424 on-base percentage and a .631 slugging percentage.
7. The best hitter with a minimum of 25 plate appearances with runners in scoring position: Carlos Zambrano of the Cubs, who went 12-for-25.
8. The pitcher you'd want on the mound in 2008 when you need a ground ball? Roy Corcoran of the Mariners, whose ground ball/fly ball ratio was 2.25, the best in the big leagues. The last starting pitcher you'd want on the mound in a ground ball situation is the Padres' Chris Young -- who pitches in the upper half of the strike zone, of course, and generated an almost incomprehensible 0.29 GB/FB ratio.
9. The guy who did the most damage with runners on base last year was Kevin Youkilis, who accumulated a rugged .694 slugging percentage -- almost 50 points higher than any other hitter.
10. Albert Pujols is the best contact power hitter in the game, and nobody else is even close. His walk-strikeout ratio in 2008 was 1.93, the best in the majors, and he struck out about once every three days -- all the while leading the majors in slugging percentage by some 50 points.
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Buster Olney
