It wasn't that long ago when the Seattle Mariners gave Carlos Silva a four-year, $48 million deal, and it wasn't that long ago when Miguel Batista got $25 million over three years and when Jeff Suppan signed a four-year, $42 million contract. No, it wasn't in another world and time when Jarrod Washburn received a four-year, $37.5 million deal.
Those deals were struck in days of relative economic bliss, however, and now, at a time when many people are being laid off and some banks are being shuttered, teams are responding in the same way that United States consumers are responding: A lot of them are just not spending. The prices for free agents have dropped, as a result.
Which brings us to the curious situation that has developed with Ben Sheets.
Over the past five seasons, the 30-year-old Sheets has an ERA of 3.24; his ERA has never been higher than 3.82 in any season, and was as low as 2.70 in 2004. His strikeout-walk ratio has never been worse than 2.87-1. Hitters have never had an OPS against him, in any season, higher than .705.
When he has pitched, he's been significantly better than Silva, Batista and Suppan.
Now, his injury history has been the primary factor undercutting his market value. He has managed to throw 150 innings in just three of the past five seasons, and some teams have looked at his medical records and are concerned about his arm. After Sheets strained a right forearm muscle at season's end, he probably lost his chance, once and for all, of ever getting a deal comparable to a five-year, $82.5 million contract.
But Sheets' market value seems to have pulled under, in the string of modest deals signed by other veteran pitchers, such as Brad Penny and John Smoltz. Some general managers say privately that Sheets will be fortunate to land a two-year, $20 million deal.
Think about that: In 2008, Sheets made 31 starts, threw 198 1/3 innings, posted an ERA of 3.09 while pitching in Milwaukee's bandbox, held opposing hitters to a .390 slugging percentage, started for the National League in the All-Star Game, struck out 158 while walking just 47 -- and in an industry that provided a $48 million deal for an innings-eater like Silva just 13 months ago, Sheets might be looking at a deal for less than half of that.
There will be days of regret for some teams in 2009, borne out of the low-cost winter market -- days when club executives will look back at the low-dollar deals being made now and wonder: Why didn't we do that? There will be teams that will be trading prospects for starting pitchers to fill holes in their rotations.
If Sheets stays healthy, he is probably going to be a high-impact pitcher for a salary much less than that of his peers -- Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano and CC Sabathia, among others -- and there will be contenders left to wonder whether they made a mistake in not snagging Sheets.
It looks like he's going to be a great bargain for somebody.
• The Rangers met with Sheets again, Richard Durrett writes. The right deal for the Rangers might be for $16 million over two years, writes Jeff Wilson. Sheets is a gamble that the Rangers have to take.
• Washburn figures he's part of the Seattle rotation.
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Buster Olney
