Posted by Andrew Feldman, Bernard Lee and Gary Wise
Without question, 2008 was a great year for poker. There was a revival in the ratings on ESPN, a WSOP that broke all sorts of records and breakout years from true poker superstars. It was a year that the poker industry is looking to build on, but with struggling economic times, will the poker industry be given a bad beat in 2009? Here are some bold predictions of what we're expecting in the year to come.
Non-WSOP tournament entries will decrease by 15 percent in 2009
Unfortunately, the decrease in field sizes is something we began to see after the conclusion of the WSOP. The big buy-in events have seen smaller fields as of late; most notably, the Bellagio's Doyle Brunson Classic went from 626 entries in 2007 to 497 in 2008. It's a trend that we should get used to as the economy continues to squeeze extra income from player's pockets. Poker rooms have thrived with more available incomes, but there's not much around right now. Crisis is the keyword on everyone's mind, and people will be overly cautious before risking their extraneous money. Although amateurs will still take their shot, there won't be as many who will ante up for the biggest events.
The reduction in field sizes also will result in fewer tournaments with buy-ins (or entry fees) of $5,000 or more. Casinos will be forced to cut back on tournaments offered as the smaller fields won't warrant the time spent by dealers, tournament staff, etc.
However, it's not all bad news. By cutting back on the $5,000 preliminaries, casinos will begin to offer more $500-$3,000 preliminary tournaments to cater to the lower bankrolls of the amateur players. Those events will continue to grow as pros that aren't playing the $5,000 will take their money and spend it elsewhere.
Additionally, satellites will grow exponentially in 2009. It seems logical that everyone will be trying to save money and make their way into bigger events through cheaper routes. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised if many pros began playing the satellites for the same reasons.
It's not all gloom and doom regarding these fields in 2009. There will be better competition at the lower buy-in tournaments as players hope to make their way through what seems to be a very tough year.
WSOP faces a tough 2009
Eric Harkins/IMPDI
Will the Amazon Room at the Rio reach capacity in 2009?
This is a scary one to write. After five years of increasing field sizes, prize pools and total numbers of players, 2009 will be a down year for poker's biggest brand. The reasoning falls into the category above, but more specifically, an increased number of those who win satellites from online poker sites will take the money instead of buying into the tournament. To explain further, when one wins a satellite online, the site then gives the player the cash instead of just simply buying him into the event. In the past, we've seen nearly 50 percent of satellite winners play the main event, but we can't see the same happening this year. Given the financial constraints, more will take the money in 2009, creating lower field sizes. We're predicting a main event field size between 2007 (6,358) and 2008 (6,844).
When it comes to preliminary events, we believe there will be a small drop in attendance simply because everyone wants to play for the bracelet. Players who aren't playing on the circuit will be saving their money for the big show and enter the WSOP.
There will also be a greater shift in 2009 in international players. As the European Poker Tour, Latin American Poker tour and Asian-Pacific Poker Tour continue to boom, more players will head overseas to play in Las Vegas.
November Nine done right … if it returns
We may be company men but we also are fans of the game, and we unanimously loved the November Nine experiment. However, we believe that if the November Nine experiment runs for a second year, there needs to be a better job done in promoting the players and gaining the national recognition throughout the delay. It took months for some of the players to make their way onto the TV show, and that caused a delay in gaining sponsorship opportunities and other notoriety. If we know one thing about commissioner Jeffrey Pollack and his team, they learn and improve year after year, and it will be no surprise to see a bigger effort in 2009 to make the Nine bigger superstars than ever before.
A "televised" professional poker player will win the 2009 WSOP main event
There. We said it. Prepare for a loaded final table in 2009. If 2008 was deemed "The Year of the Pro," 2009 will bring the biggest bracelet of them all back to one of those we love to watch on TV.
Two players will remove themselves from the "best player without a bracelet" list that we'll post in May
How many times can Andy Bloch get close to winning a bracelet, but fall just short? Not anymore. 2009 is the year for the man who had seven WSOP cashes in 2008. Since 1996, Bloch has 20 lifetime cashes, which includes eight final tables and two runner-up finishes. He has more than $4 million in lifetime earnings, with his first cash coming in a $100 buy-in no-limit hold 'em tournament at Foxwoods in 1993 (he won the event for a whopping $4,840).
Three years ago, Michael Binger came onto the poker scene with a third-place finish in the WSOP main event. Although he fell short to Jamie Gold at his second final table of 2006 (and earned $4.1 million), Binger permanently left his mark on the poker industry. In 2007, Binger continued to dominate the WSOP felt and cashed eight more times. While we thought 2008 would've been Binger's bracelet year, he cashed only four times for a measly $145,000. Since the WSOP, Binger won his first WSOP Circuit event and proved that he can close out a big tournament. 2009 is the year for Michael Binger's first bracelet.
Rookies of the Year
While the 2009 rookie class (that is, those turning 21 between the 2008 and 2009 WSOPs) doesn't feature any one rookie with the stature of Tom Dwan, its depth will ensure it will make its mark. Adam Junglen signed a deal with Full Tilt Poker more or less on his 21st birthday, while cash-game monsters Ozzy "Ozzy87" Sheikh and "ActionJeff" Jeff Garza have to be preparing themselves for their first runs at American bracelet events. One of them wins a bracelet before next December.
There will be an active champion
AP Photo/Isaac Brekken
Peter Eastgate will be an active champion in 2009.
Following their WSOP wins, 2006 champion Jamie Gold had to stay by his father's deathbed and 2007 victor Jerry Yang chose to spend time with his kids. Peter Eastgate, however, has barely gotten up from the table since his victory at the 2008 World Series of Poker. The youngest champion ever took a cool $500,000 to the table for his first stint on High Stakes Poker (filmed in early December) and has only barely paused his play to grant a few interviews and embrace the role he plays as poker's world champion. While his 2009 winnings may not equal those of 2008, we feel confident that Eastgate will be as active as any champion this decade and will prove time and again his victory was no fluke. Eastgate will score another major victory in 2009.
Strides will be made in poker legislation
After a year of scandal and frustration for poker's advocates, there's hope on the horizon. President-elect Barack Obama is well-known to be an avid player, the decidedly Democratic shift in Washington bodes well and the constant diligence shown in 2008 by the Poker Players Alliance -- the game's largest lobby -- seems to have laid the groundwork for good things in the 12 months to come.
"The next Congress and new administration should give advocates for regulated online poker much reason to feel optimistic in 2009," said PPA executive director John Pappas. "The previous year's efforts have set the stage, and the public policy and fiscal arguments for regulation are ripe for action."
This may be the year the U.S. government finally sees the revenue lost from the lack of taxation and does something about it.
2009 Comeback Player of the Year
How many times did you cash in 2008? If your answer is greater than zero, then you had more than Bill Edler, the 2007 Bluff Magazine's Player of the Year. In his own words, "If you cashed in an event during 2008, you were definitely ahead of me."
This affable player had an amazing run in 2007 in which he cashed 11 times while capturing his first WSOP bracelet and his first WPT main event. In total, Edler earned more than $2.75 million and was on top of the poker world.
However, 2008 was a true reversal of fortune as Edler came up empty-handed for the entire 2008 poker campaign. Not for a lack of playing or trying, he could not break the money bubble once for the entire year. Nevertheless, it will be almost impossible to keep a player of Edler's caliber down two years in a row. Look for this talented player to make his way back onto the cashing ledger multiple times in 2009, possibly adding to his trophy mantle, as well.
Mike Sexton went to bat for the players in a closed door meeting with Commissioner Jeffrey Pollack.
Mike Sexton will be named to the Poker Hall of Fame
Most of you may have assumed that Sexton, known worldwide as "The Ambassador of Poker," was already a member of this elite company. Although modern-day players synonymously link his name with the World Poker Tour, longtime players recognize Sexton's poker contributions go far beyond the WPT.
On the felt, Sexton has had a tremendously successful career, earning more than $3 million. In 1989, he captured a WSOP bracelet in $1,500 seven-card stud split and also won the 2006 WSOP Tournament of Champions. Afterward, Sexton lived up to his poker nickname by donating half of his post-tax winnings to five different charities. Recently, at the 2008 WSOP, he came close to winning his second bracelet when he finished fourth in Event 1 ($10,000 World Championship pot-limit hold 'em event). As of 2008, he is also among the top-10 in all-time WSOP cashes with 44.
Recently, the usually reticent Erik Seidel wrote a post on the 2+2 forum, supporting Mike Sexton's inclusion in the Hall of Fame.
"Next up should be Mike Sexton," said Seidel. "He has some impressive accomplishments as a player, he won the Tournament of Champions in 06', the European Heads Up, and is one of the leaders in WSOP cashes including one bracelet … I can't think of anyone though who has contributed more to the growth of the game than Mike and that's why he should be the next inductee … Mike loves poker and fortunately is able to translate that for the viewer … He is one of the best ambassadors poker has ever seen and I hope he is on deck for admission in '09."
If Seidel speaks up, the poker world listens. Enough said.
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