In his Pinstriped Blog mailbag, Steven Goldman answers a couple of pointed questions about Derek Jeter's future in the 'stripes …
If Jeter's 2008 stats represent a trend, his bat and his glove and rapidly converging on the point where there is no position he can play -- his bat will only be suitable for the middle infield and his glove will only play at a corner. The guy turns 35 next year -- this is to be expected, yet I imagine it's difficult for some to write so honestly about an icon. There is no prospect pushing Jeter from within the Yankees organization, and no free agent shortstop so good that one could make a reasonable argument for signing him, with all the controversy that would entail.
In the absence of alternatives, many of the same writers who should be out in front of the Jeter story will be making the sentimental case for granting him a contract extension a year from now.
-- snip --
There is no guarantee that Jeter can learn to play second base at his advanced age, and even if he could, there's a good chance his lack of range at short would hamper him at the keystone as well. There's also not much likelihood that Jeter would entertain the thought.
First of all, while it's true that "Jeter's bat and glove are converging to the point where there's no position he can play," in a sense that's true of every player, right? Jeter's more talented than most, but he's subject to the ravages of aging just like everyone else. By the standards of Western society, Jeter is still a young man. But by the standards of Major League Baseball, he's almost eligible for full Social Security benefits.
That said -- and I'm surprised to find myself defending one of the more overrated players ever -- I wouldn't be too worried about Cap'n Jetes' performance in 2008, any more than I was terribly excited about his brilliant performance in 2006. Here are Jeter's Win Shares for the past nine seasons:
23 28 24 19 26 26 32 24 18
It's more likely that Jeter's relatively poor performance this year was due more to randomness than decrepitude, and I expect him to bounce back nicely next year with something like 25 Win Shares. Well, more than 20, anyway. And if you can rack up 20 Win Shares, you can play every day for just about anybody.
Which isn't to suggest the Yankees should throw a billion dollars at Jeter next winter (or sooner). Because if they're paying him a ton of money for five years, they're going to feel like they have to play him regularly for five years, and in four or five years he will
not be good enough to play every day. For the Yankees the money isn't the issue; the issue is the games, the at-bats, the plate appearances.
And as Goldman suggests, second base probably isn't the answer. Even if he can actually play second base, whatever you gain in defense you're likely to lose in positional scarcity. What you're trying to do is win games, and you don't win any more games with Jeter playing second base than you win with him playing shortstop. Essentially it's quite a simple thing: Aside from the likely uptick next season, Jeter's going to become less and less valuable over the next five or six years because there's really no other way for the math to work.
Do you think the
Steinbrothers will have the courage to let him become less and less valuable for some other team?
Rob Neyer
