Has Randy Johnson's second stint with the Diamondbacks come to an end? Sure seems like it:
"Randy instructed us not to file for free agency until we made every effort to reach an agreement," Johnson's agents, Barry Meister and Alan Nero, said in a statement. "The Diamondbacks have a budget based on their club's financial situation and obviously viewed Randy's contract in that context.
"Randy considered every reasonable compromise including offering to take a 50% pay cut, all to remain a Diamondback. However, the economic situation did not lend itself to an agreement."
I wonder if we're getting the whole story here.
Randy Johnson's salary this year was $10 million. If he's really willing to pitch next year for $5 million, almost any contending team would be foolish to spurn that combination. If you prorate his signing bonus, it's more like $15 million for 2008, but $7.5 million for 2009 still seems to me like a bargain. Or nearly so.
I was surprised, just now, to see just how well Johnson pitched in 2008. He started 30 games, struck out 173 batters in 184 innings, and walked only 44. His strikeout rate was sixth best in the National League, his strikeout-to-walk ratio third best. If Johnson were 25 rather than 45 -- he turned 45 in September -- teams would be salivating over this talented young power lefty.
Granted, 45's not the new 25 (not yet, anyway). But the single best predictor of next year's performance is this year's performance, and that's true no matter what your age. Granted, there's a risk involved. But how big a risk?
We've seen so few pitchers like Randy Johnson that we just can't know. The number of pitchers, 44 or older, who have struck out more than 150 batters in one season can be counted on two thumbs: Randy Johnson and
Nolan Ryan (twice). When Ryan was 44, he struck out 203 in 173 innings and posted a 2.91 ERA. When Ryan was 45, he struck out 157 in 157 innings and posted a 3.72 ERA.
I saw another quote from
one of Johnson's agents: "Randy can be a difference-maker. I expect there to be significant interest."
When I first read that, I figured it was just typical agent-speak. But now I think Randy Johnson
can be a difference-maker, and I'll be surprised if he's forced to take anything like a 50-percent pay cut. I won't be at all surprised if he signs with a pretty good team, and picks up his 300th win next spring. It'll be fun to see him do it in a new uniform.
Rob Neyer
