If the Padres successfully trade Jake Peavy, Khalil Greene and Brian Giles, as they have already attempted, their payroll will be probably wind up somewhere just north of the Marlins' payroll. The Rockies have traded Matt Holliday and are trying to move Garrett Atkins, meaning that their salary expenditures will probably be reduced. The Diamondbacks laid off 31 employees this past Friday, and it wouldn't surprise anybody in the game if their payroll gets cut as well.
| Olney's news and notes |
• Manny deal could reach $60 million
• Could Tigers pursue Hoffman?
• Dempster may hit free-agent market
• Papi wants Red Sox to add pop
• Holliday won't be in Oakland long
Around the majors with Buster Olney 
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So three-fifths of the NL West is in salary-dump mode, at least partly in response to the worsening economy, and you can easily see how the ripples will begin to strike other parts of baseball:
1. The Dodgers and the Giants are undoubtedly aware of the payroll slashing going on in their division, and there will be less pressure on them to make big-money moves. In recent years, we have seen the trend work the other way: As the Red Sox and Yankees increased their respective payrolls, the Toronto Blue Jays extended themselves financially in an effort to compete by signing
B.J. Ryan and then
A.J. Burnett, and the rest of the AL was naturally forced to spend more as well. But now, in the NL West, the market is being depressed.
2. There is an expectation among some executives and agents that the free-agent activity will be heavy at both ends of the offseason calendar. Some agents want to move quickly and strike deals rapidly in the first days after the free-agent period begins Friday out of a concern that eventually the money spent by teams this winter is going to dry up -- particularly if there are teams who get an indication, in their season-ticket returns, that their attendance is going to go backward in 2009. In order words: Some free agents will be looking to do a quick money grab, while the getting is good.
And then, after an initial flurry of signings and after the money musical chairs starts to slow in mid-December, some executives and agents believe that many big-name players will be left to sit and wait and play out a stare-down, with the teams waiting and waiting for the prices on the midlevel free agents not named
Sabathia and
Teixeira to go down. "I'm going to wait until late January," said one GM, "because there are going to be a whole lot of bargains out there."
3. If, in fact, the season-ticket returns take a major turn backward, it will have an impact on teams like ugly poll numbers do for a politician: They will change strategy in midstream. Some pricey veterans who are under contract and who are not available for trade right now may suddenly become available in December or January or at the outset of spring training as cutbacks are made.
4. The teams with money to spend are going to be at an even greater advantage because they'll be in position to take advantage of some of the salary-dumping, and because they won't have as much competition. Yes, the Yankees and Red Sox will fall into this category.
Around the majors with Buster Olney
Buster Olney
