Six free agents not named Sabathia or Teixeira who should have interesting journeys through their free agency:
Juan Cruz: The guess here is that Cruz might wind up drawing the highest interest (in terms of the number of interested teams) of any player on the free-agent market because of the volatility of the relief market, and because of his staggering 2008 numbers: 71 strikeouts in 51.2 innings, with an opponents' OPS of .655. And in 2007, he racked up 87 strikeouts in 61 innings; he is capable of stopping a rally with a big punchout.
Those stats make the 30-year-old right-hander intriguing. There naturally will be concern about whether Cruz's performance was just a case of a one-year wonder, given that he has bounced through four teams over the past six seasons, and given that he posted a 7.44 ERA for Oakland just three seasons ago.
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But there is such a scarcity in the relief market for someone like Cruz that it figures somebody will gamble on him, in the way the White Sox gambled a four-year deal on
Scott Linebrink last winter. Some rival officials think that he fits the immediate needs of the Tigers.
Bobby Abreu: The Yankees will likely offer him arbitration and leave it at that, which means that Abreu might stand to make $17 million-$18 million for 2009 if he stays. Abreu batted .296 with 20 homers and 100 RBIs last season, with a .371 on-base percentage, so he will probably draw multiyear offers from other teams; he fits the Cubs perfectly, given that they're comfortable with shifting
Kosuke Fukudome to center field. But Abreu has loved playing in New York, and it's hard to imagine any team will offer him more in salary for 2009 than what he would stand to make if he were to accept arbitration with the Yankees. We'll see what happens.
Adam Dunn: At a time when home run numbers are down in the majors, Dunn has mashed 40 or more homers in five consecutive seasons, while drawing more than 100 walks in four straight seasons. So based on that, you'd think he'd cash in, right? Well, as we mentioned during the summer, there is an enormous split of thought among talent evaluators about what Dunn's true value is, with some believing that his poor defense, his high strikeout totals and his low batting average greatly reduce his effectiveness.
Two winters ago, the Red Sox ignored conventional wisdom on
J.D. Drew -- that he gets hurt too much, that his passion for the game is not high -- and signed him to a five-year, $70 million deal. Time will tell whether some team will step out in a similar way with Dunn and gamble a big-money contract on him.
Jamie Moyer: He'll turn 46 soon, and there isn't a lot of precedent for someone that old getting a multiyear contract. The notion of committing that kind of money to someone that old probably makes general managers queasy. But Moyer is coming off a season in which he went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA and pitched well in a World Series start, and he just keeps on winning. On one hand, the radar gun readings of an 80 mph fastball might scare you, but on the other hand, he doesn't rely on his velocity; like a knuckleballer, he pitches unconventionally, so logically, there would seem to be reason to think that he can continue pitching successfully into his late 40s.
But will any team offer him a multiyear deal? It's unclear.
Kerry Wood: He signed his first contract with the Cubs, he broke in as a Cub, he set a strikeout record as a Cub, he gave the team a discount in order to stay with the Cubs and he had a remarkable comeback as a Cub in 2008, throwing well enough to make the All-Star team. But he managed just 21 2/3s innings in the second half of the season, and he bears an unusual injury history, so the Cubs might naturally be leery of making a major investment in him -- in a market in which closers are scarce. The Mets have money to spend on a closer, for example. The guess here is that Wood will re-sign with the Cubs, but hey, we'll see how it goes.
Ben Sheets: At midseason, he seemed poised for a big-money free-agent score, as the NL starter in the All-Star Game. Then Sheets broke down late in the season, again, reinforcing a perception that he is a serious injury risk. But Casey Close, an agent with a reputation among general managers as a straight shooter, is letting everybody know that Sheets' injury was merely a muscle tear, and not a structural problem in his elbow, and he's got MRIs to prove it. And undoubtedly, Close is reminding teams of what Sheets does when he pitches: Over the past five seasons, his ERA has been 2.70, 3.33, 3.82, 3.82 and 3.09. Over the past five seasons, he has issued just 152 walks in 839 1/3 innings with 785 strikeouts, numbers that are remarkable.
Sheets is not going to get Sabathia dollars, but as other top pitchers come off the board, at some point, some team is probably going to make a move on the 30-year-old right-hander, and for big dollars.
Around the majors with Buster Olney
Buster Olney
