The Red Sox and the Yankees stared each other down during the Johan Santana trade talks last winter, each team sort of interested in acquiring the pitcher for itself but mostly engaged to make sure that if the left-hander landed with their rival, the price tag would stay high. When the Yankees offered pitcher Phil Hughes as part of their package in the brief window at the outset of December's winter meetings, the Red Sox were resigned to the likelihood that the Twins would make that deal -- but were satisfied that they had at least forced the Yankees to part with one of their best pitching prospects.
In the end, both Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and Yankees GM Brian Cashman probably got their first wish: Santana was traded out of the AL, rather than to their respective teams.
But this time around, the prominent player that the Yankees and Red Sox are expected to fight over -- first baseman Mark Teixeira -- will probably land with one team or the other.
The Yankees, who will shed about $75 million in expiring contracts this offseason, want Teixeira to bolster their offense and improve their defense, and they will bid heavily, to the point that they might offer the first baseman about the same deal they gave Jason Giambi -- $120 million, paid out over six years.
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This will be part of Cashman's two-front battle to get the Yankees back into the playoffs, with one arm of work complementing the other: If he signs Teixeira and a couple of starting pitchers, like CC Sabathia and Derek Lowe, the signings would allow him to keep prospects, rather than trade them, and continue the reconstruction of the team's farm system.
There already is debate within the industry as to whether the Red Sox are really serious about Teixeira. One theory, popular among some agents, is the Red Sox will bid just enough to drive the price up for the Yankees and, after forcing Cashman to spend more than he wants, they'll back away from the table in the end.
The guess here, and among some executives, is that the Red Sox' interest is actually much more serious than that, that they want Teixeira and feel like they need him to fortify the middle of their lineup.
"Teixeira is their kind of player," said one talent evaluator. "High on-base percentage, great defense, power hitter, he's 28 years old and he plays a position that generally ages well."
The expectation of the Red Sox is that third baseman Mike Lowell will bounce back from hip surgery, and that David Ortiz -- with the benefit of a full offseason for his wrist to heal and for him to get into better shape -- will return to mashing AL pitching next year.
But they are the Red Sox, with all that that implies, and they cannot assume that Lowell will rebound; they cannot assume that Ortiz will come back. And for what Boston needs, there are really very few options for offensive upgrades in this market. The Red Sox could theoretically try to deal for Matt Holliday, but the cost would be enormous and he will be a free agent after next season. As Boston demonstrated in the Santana trade talks, it really isn't interested in trading young players for a guy who is going to walk away in a year.
Adam Dunn is an imperfect fit for Boston's needs, and so are many others in the current class of free agents. If the Red Sox were to sign Teixeira, they would have a glut of slugger/corner guys, with Kevin Youkilis, Lowell, Ortiz and Teixeira; if the Red Sox were to sign Teixeira, Boston might move Youkilis to left field, Jason Bay to right and J.D. Drew to center, with Jacoby Ellsbury working into the rotation in the way that Coco Crisp did in 2008, through injury and planned rest.
Remember this, too: Epstein really covets guys with high on-base percentages, even if it means working in the face of conventional wisdom. The baseball industry was very down on Drew, but Epstein valued him for his ability as a professional hitter and signed him to a five-year deal. Twenty months ago, he went to the verge of completing a trade for Todd Helton -- a player who, in his prime, was very much like Teixeira.
We'll have to wait to see where Teixeira lands, but this might be the most aggressive head-to-head bidding from the Red Sox and Yankees that we've seen since Jose Contreras left Cuba.
The Red Sox are the front-runner to sign pitcher Junichi Tazawa, writes Sean McAdam.
Theo Epstein will meet with Scott Boras over the next couple of days to discuss Jason Varitek, writes Nick Cafardo.
Buster Olney
