ESPN BASEBALL

If you blinked you probably missed it, but yesterday Kyle Lohse finally got his big payday. After a few blinks, I headed over to Viva El Birdos to see what Larry Borowsky had to say …

re the lohse contract --- goold reports at Bird Land that it's similar to the carlos silva deal from last winter, ie 4 years and $48m. if those figures are anywhere close to true, i think it's a dreadful use of resources; all-star money for an average player. the contract has a chance to pay fair returns in year one, but by year three i think it's gonna be a mangy dog -- the type of deal that makes the team worse, not better; the type of deal everybody bitches about on talk radio. at the very top of his game lohse might be worth $12m a year, but no player is at his peak all the time. he's never going to give you a $15m season for your $12m --- he's just not that good --- but he is very capable of having a $5m year. it's nearly all downside risk; there's almost no upside. check out the playoff teams this year; how many mid- to back-end starters are making $10m a year on those teams? i count two: Ted Lilly (who the cards could have had 2 years ago for less than they're now gonna pay lohse) and Jeff Suppan, who had a Joel Pineiro-like season for the brewers and may not crack their postseason rotation. now look at the crappy teams --- miguel batistas and jarrod washburns and kevin millwoodses and gil meches abound. the 2008 playoffs will be dominated by young, cost-controlled starting pitchers --- the dodgers, phillies, rays, angels, and twins / chisox are all trotting at least 2 of them out there. last year's playoffs were similarly skewed (see the rotations of the rockies, indians, dbacks).

I've met Larry, and didn't realize that he's young enough to eschew capital letters. Hey, that's cool; maybe we'll all get there someday. I can just see the memo from Bristol, in 2033 …

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