Someone asked me how the Angels should deal with clinching so early (last Friday). I didn't know, and still don't. But thanks to The Hardball Times' Craig Brown, now I know what other super-early clinchers have done, and how they fared in October.
Skipping to the end …
The '75 Reds, '98 Yankees and '95 and '99 Indians all led their league in scoring. With an offense that scores only 4.6 runs per game, the Angels currently rank 10th in the AL. But the Angels limit the opposition to 4.2 runs per game, the third best in the league, which is how the '98 Padres and '02 Braves found success. With their lack of offensive firepower, they will need their starters to continue their recent form if they hope to advance through the postseason.
Well, yes.
It's true that the Angels will probably need their starters to pitch particularly well in October. But I wonder if that's any more likely than, say, the Red Sox and White Sox starters pitching particularly well.
The Angels' top four starters (leaving out
Jon Garland) are 53-27 with a 3.59 ERA. Impressive.
The Red Sox' top four starters (leaving out
Paul Byrd) are 53-27 with a 3.55 ERA. Just as impressive.
The White Sox' top four starters (leaving out
Clayton Richard) are 51-40 with a 3.82 ERA. Nearly as impressive (especially considering their hitter-friendly home park).
The Rays' top four starters (leaving out
Edwin Jackson) are 48-31 with a 3.78 ERA. Again, nearly as impressive.
When you try to temper enthusiasm about the Angels, their partisans will respond, "But our pitching's really good!"
Yes, it is. But if you're choosing between a team with good pitching and a team with good pitching
and good hitting, don't you have to choose the latter? The Red Sox are second in the league in scoring; the White Sox are sixth.
I don't mean to discount the Angels' chances completely. In 1985 the Royals won the World Series with one of the worst hitting attacks in the American League. But you know, it's funny how the teams that win are usually real good on both sides of the ball.
Rob Neyer
