How important is experience? According to the blog Blatant Homerism, it's actually pretty overrated when it comes to preseason predictions:
"I drilled down to the top 10 percent of teams by winning percentage in the six-year period in an effort to see if winning teams had more experience. Just like the general population, nothing really stands out among the best teams, as the correlation of returning starters to winning percentage is 0.01.
"Notably, the top 10 percent of BCS teams in terms of winning percentage have had an average of 13.05 returning starters: 6.55 on offense and 6.50 on defense. Those figures are equal to or less than all three measures for all BCS teams during the period. If you're looking for further proof that experience is meaningless to elite teams, consider the particulars of this group. Four teams had 17 returning starters, the highest number of returnees: 2007 USC, 2005 Penn St., 2006 Louisville and
2003 Ohio St. None won a national championship.
"The Buckeyes' case is particularly notable, in that the 2003 squad had six more returnees than the prior year's national championship team, yet failed to defend its crown. In contrast, the 2004 USC Trojans, arguably the best team of all time, returned just nine starters from the previous season, the lowest of any team among the group."
There is some interesting stuff to sift through in that blog entry. My three cents on why starting experience is important really has more to do with the fact that it should, in theory, tie in with a player's grasp of his team's system. From observing the Ole Miss Rebels, I came away believing nothing costs you games more than blown assignments. Usually you get that from inexperienced players. Then again, if you have some young players who are very sharp and have learned the system, maybe they don't need to have been starters to prove their worth. And yes, I know success does breed success.
Two teams lots of folks are high on this year -- USC and Clemson -- both return only one starting O-lineman. That would seem to be a major concern, but sometimes great coaching can overcome that. That seemed to be the case with last year's Georgia team. Credit there goes to O-line coach Stacy Searels.
So to step back a bit, how would you rank the following factors as the most important when it comes to projecting a team's worth?
- Perceived talent base
- Star power
- Returning starters
- Coaching and team leadership
- Schedule strength
That's the order I have it in. Disagree?
RANDOM STUFF
• Tennessee has been watching a lot of tape of a bunch of different teams, ranging from the Tennessee Titans to San Diego State to Mt. San Antonio College to get ready for UCLA,
writes Chris Foster.
• Cool anecdote about Jeff Tedford being a classy guy in this Andrew Kim story. Love to hear this kind of stuff.
• Penn State will be an intriguing team to follow this year. My colleague Adam Rittenberg has the three key questions to which we'll want to get the answers.
• No Greg Middleton in Indiana's opener, which means I take back my thought that he might get 20 sacks this year. (I'll say only 18 this
year.)
According to Terry Hutchens, Middleton, a junior defensive end, led the nation in sacks last season with 16. Freshman defensive end Kyle Kozak, senior safety Brandon Mosley and junior tight end Troy Wagner also were suspended for the opener for breaking rules.
• The four most important games on the Michigan schedule according to Chris Burke are Ohio State, then Purdue, Illinois and Utah.
I'll say they are Ohio State, Utah, then Notre Dame and then Purdue.
• Jim Grobe's Wake Forest program thrives on the fifth-year senior and Rob Daniels examines the Deacons' reliance on experience.
The Wake Forest roster has 32 players in their fourth or fifth year of eligibility.
Word out of Wake that the best bet among true freshmen to make an impact this year is OG Joe Looney from Lake Worth, Fla.
• Lots of North Carolina products on Steve Spurrier's team, writes Seth
Emerson:
"Several of North Carolina's best players in the 2006 Shrine Bowl now play for South Carolina. The Gamecocks' new starting quarterback is a Tar Heel -- so is the star kicker and the new starting safety. 'There's a fraternity among the North Carolina guys,' Weslye Saunders said. 'We pretty much stick together, and when we play a team like N.C. State or North Carolina, we come together. We know it's our time to show them what we're made of.'
"Four years ago, Lou Holtz's final team at USC had just seven players from North Carolina. That number has more than doubled since Steve Spurrier took over, with 15 current players from the state."
No doubt the appeal of playing in the SEC carries a lot of weight and the ACC doesn't have as much luster.
• Who are the best "athletes" in the upcoming recruiting class? Tommy Luginbill has a good rundown:
• Interesting note about new Miami D-coordinator Bill Young in this Barry Jackson column:
"Even beyond Bill Young's creative and unpredictable blitz packages, the internal sentiment is that UM's highly-regarded new defensive coordinator's system will create more interceptions (just 13 last year).
Because Young will use more zone defense, Grant said players don't have their 'back turned' to the ball nearly as much as last year and have more 'freedom to make plays.' ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit, who played at Ohio State when Young was there, said Young 'is very good at working with a young group and can simplify things so they can play fast.'"
That's a good thing considering UM has about a dozen true freshmen listed on its two-deep.
• I got a chance to watch the simulcast of The Herd on ESPNU. Good stuff.
Gotta love the guys who love college football. Plus, you can't go wrong with having Beano Cook on.
Bruce Feldman
