From the early report ...
The Los Angeles Times reported on Monday night that the team had completed a deal with the Padres for veteran right-hander Greg
Maddux. Citing an anonymous person close to the deal, the newspaper did not know who San Diego would receive in return.
Maddux has a 3.99 ERA this season, but is only 6-9 for a Padres team that has languished in last place in the weak NL West. The Dodgers moved into a first-place tie with the Diamondbacks in the division on Sunday.
Los Angeles had a need for another starter, however, after putting right-hander Brad
Penny on the disabled list last week.
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This year, Maddux has been roughly league-average (after accounting for his home park). Last season, Maddux was roughly league-average. In 2006, Maddux was roughly league-average … with the Cubs, before the Dodgers acquired him at the end of July.
After joining the Dodgers, Maddux pitched brilliantly for two months.
Or seemed to. His ERA dropped from 4.69 with the Cubs to 3.30 with the Dodgers. Fundamentally, though? His strikeout rate declined semi-significantly, his walk rate declined just slightly and his home-run rate didn't change much at all. All that
really changed, statistically, was that a high percentage of balls in play went for hits before, and for a low percentage after. This, as you know, is due mostly to luck.
It all comes out in the wash. From 2003 through 2006, Maddux was a good National League pitcher. Since then, he's been an average National League pitcher (though with bonus points for durability).
There's little reason to think he'll be anything different over the final six weeks of this season. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
A couple of caveats, though …
First, the Dodgers already have the best pitching/defense in the National League; their 3.64 ERA is tops, and that includes Brad Penny's 6.05 mark in 94 innings. You can't really blame the Dodgers for not trusting
Chan
Ho Park, but in five starts he does have a 2.16 ERA with a fantastic K/BB ratio.
And second, what happens if the Dodgers beat out the Diamondbacks? By most reasonable definitions, Maddux is now the Dodgers' fifth-best starting pitcher. Would management bump him from the rotation in October, in favor of 20-year-old
Clayton
Kershaw? Probably not, and that might actually be a stroke of genius. Before this season, Kershaw had never thrown more than 122 innings in one season. Right now, he's at 134 and counting. Figure seven more starts and he's up to 170-175 innings, which is about the most you'd want to see him throwing this year.
Maybe I'm giving Ned Colletti too much credit, but I wonder if the possible acquisition of Maddux isn't designed, at least in part, to save Kershaw's arm.
Rob Neyer
