Gerry Fraley on the first-place Twins:
They are 28th in homers with 82, three more than Toronto and 18 more than San Francisco. But the Twins are sixth in the majors in runs per game (4.97). How has Minnesota scored at nearly the same rate as the White Sox with half the home-run power? The answer lies in a potentially historic performance by a group of hitters who "put it in play and run like hell," according to Twins manager Ron Gardenhire.
Without runners in scoring position, the Twins are ordinary hitters. They go into tonight's game against the Yankees hitting a routine .265 with the bases empty or with a runner only at first. Put runners in scoring position, however, and the Twins turn into a dynamo. They start the series with the Yankees hitting a major league best .312 with runners in scoring position.
Information on team batting with runners in scoring position is available dating back only to 1974. The highest team average with runners in scoring position during that span is .311, set last season by Detroit.
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According to Fraley, "There are several underlying reasons for the Twins' success with runners in scoring position."
Fraley's reasons: 1)
Justin
Morneau and
Joe
Mauer know how to hit in clutch situations; 2) the Twins are too smart to swing for the fences, preferring singles instead; and 3) the Metrodome's spongy artificial turf. Thought Experiment: If these things do explain the Twins' outstanding numbers with runners in scoring position this season, wouldn't we expect the Twins to have thrived in the same situation last year? After all, Morneau and Mauer were there last year, and the Twins didn't hit many home runs last year, and the artificial turf was the same last year.
Well, last year the Twins batted .264 overall … and .276 with runners in scoring position. The former figure was good for ninth in the American League, the latter figure eighth.
In 2006, the Twins batted .287 overall … and .296 with runners in scoring position. The former figure was first in the league, the latter figure second.
Batting averages with runners in scoring position are generally a few points higher than otherwise, mostly because the infielders are out of position (or so the theory goes). So rather than comparing a team's batting averages in both situations, it's more useful to compare a team's league rank. Or rather, it's
usually more useful. This year the Twins have the third best overall batting average, and (of
course)
the best with runners in scoring position. The difference between No. 3 and No. 1 is not dramatic, and would usually not be worth noting.
But of course the difference between .276 and .312 is wildly dramatic and well worth noting. It's worth explaining, too … Except an explanation that doesn't explain why the same thing didn't happen last year is really no explanation at all. Which leaves us, as usual, with
Occam's Razor, which in this case would suggest that the Twins are batting .312 with runners in scoring position because they've been extraordinarily lucky.
Rob Neyer
